NV-03: GOP Rep. Porter No Longer Sure Thing?
The race between GOP Rep. Jon Porter and Dem Tessa Hafen, the former aide to Harry Reid, hasn't been seen as a competitive one, even though the district was an evenly-split battleground between George Bush and John Kerry in 2004. Polls in September showed Porter with a sizeable lead, and CQ Politics has rated it as "Republican Favored." But new evidence is emerging that the race isn't necessarily a lock for Porter. A poll recently released by Dem firm Momentum Analysis shows Hafen within four points of Porter, 41%,-37%. What's more, the NRCC dropped nearly 10 grand on a poll in the district this week -- something the GOP wouldn't do unless there was at least some concern over Porter's seat. So count this race on our list of ones to watch.
I know everyone is excited by all the emerging races, and this may be a legitimate opportunity. But in a potential "wave" year like this, I think it is prudent to make sure that we are actually looking at legitimate chances.
With such a national wave lifting all Dems, I would warn that there are going to be many instances of "fool's gold." Races that were never considered competative that suddenly look close but really aren't. With power of gerrymandered GOP districts, many races will never pan out no matter how big the "wave" is in November.
I'm not saying that this race in Nevada is "fool's gold" at all. I hope it isn't. I've just been thinking about this for a while. We're seeing so many emerging races from unlikely districts in the past few weeks. Some of them are going to be unwinnable regardless of the local or national climate. There just aren't enough potential Democratic votes.
There, I've now rained on everyone's parade. So now go out and prove me wrong!
October 19, 2006 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
This race is interesting and seems to be very competitive with incumbent Porter only at 41% this close to election day. Also, I have to wonder if this may be part of the reason why we've seen the GOP spend so much time trying to dig up & magnify dirt on Harry Reid.
October 19, 2006 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink