MO-SEN: McCaskill Leads Talent By Nine
That eye-opening number on the Missouri Senate race we promised you earlier? Here it is: A new SurveyUSA poll finds that Dem challenger Claire McCaskill is pulling away from GOP Senator Jim Talent -- she now leads Talent 51%-42%. Previous polls have shown a statistical dead heat. A key footnote in today's poll: There's been a big swing in independent support. Independents backed Talent by 12 points last month, but now support McCaskill by 13 -- a 25 point shift. As noted below, Missouri is one of the three Senate races the Republican National Committee is now sinking money into in a last-ditch effort to stave off more and more likely losses in the Senate.
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I think you are right about the independents. All year both candidates have been around 42-45%. Talent's numbers haven't moved. The 42% who were always going to vote for him still are. The undecideds (mostly independents) are deciding, and they are deciding overwelmingly for McCaskill.
I think Talent's performance on the Russert show has something to do with the shift. He came off looking like a Bush "yes" man trying to hide his true idenity. His postion on stem cell research didn't help either. He looked down right mealy mouthed.
All in all I think the Republicans have really hurt themselves by refusing to hold the administration accountable. Bush is a lame duck. They could have stood up for the Constitution when drafting the detainee bill, but instead they caved. McCain's habit of talking tough and then folding didn't help Senate Republicans.
The negative advertizing against McCaskill is nearly wall to wall. She still needs help. There are 3 weeks to go and anything can happen.
Ron Byers
October 13, 2006 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ron, I agree that the debate on MTP has had a positive impact on Claire & a negative one for Jimbo. I also think that the wall-to-wall negative ads by Talent are turning off the independents.
Independents vote for the person, not the party and I think he is coming off as a mean-spirited politician. I also think people see him as part of DC politics as usual that is broken and needs to be fixed (as in neutered:).
I also agree that we should not sit back and say she's got it in the bag. She won't win if her supporters don't get out and vote on Nov. 7th.
October 14, 2006 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink