A rash of newspaper endorsements and campaign trail cameos, some raised eyebrows in Texas’ 22^nd, and Karl Rove’s proof that he knows more than anyone else who has ever lived. The Midterm Roundup apologizes if it has become ragged and incoherent. We’re just 1 freaking week away, people!

The BIG 3½

(Note: Since everyone seems to consider it a tossup, the Midterm Roundup is now including the New Jersey Senate race in its BIG 3 section, but due to its flat-out incredulity that New Jersey could possibly fall to a Republican on Election Day, the Roundup refuses to grant it any more than ½ status.)

A bunch of opposing newspaper endorsements, blatantly lifted from CQ’s Battleground Dispatches:

MO-SEN: The Kansas City Star endorses McCaskill; the Springfield News-Leader endorses Talent.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that White House Press Secretary Tony Snow campaigned for Talent Monday night, helping raise some $50,000. Former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is expected to campaign for Talent later this week, while Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) is scheduled to headline a rally for McCaskill on Sunday.

NJ-SEN: The New York Times endorses Menendez; the Press of Atlantic City endorses Kean.

The Jersey Journal notes a few more: “Menendez won the backing of The Star-Ledger of Newark and The Record of Bergen County. Kean was endorsed by The Asbury Park Press, The Press of Atlantic City and The Courier-Post of Cherry Hill. Menendez was previously endorsed by The Philadelphia Inquirer and The Burlington County Times, and Kean by The New York Post. The Jersey Journal will announce its endorsement later this week.”

Meanwhile NRO’s Stephen Spruiell writes all about how corrupt he thinks Bob Menendez is with Culture of Corruption: The special case of Bob Menendez. The OpEdNews’s John Atlas counters with: Senator Menendez: Just another crook? Another Swift-boat victim? Or Perfect for New Jersey?

VA-SEN: The Hampton Roads Daily Press and the Roanoke Times endorse Webb; the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star endorses Allen.

Plus, The Plank’s Michael Crowley makes a good call:

BORING HEADLINE AWARD:

On Transportation, Allen and Webb Share Views

--Washington Post, today

Seriously, with everything going on in this race, that’s the best you could come up with??

To be fair, they did come up with more:

Allen, Webb Camps Shift Focus to Turnout

Va. Marriage Debate A Hotbed of Irony (Post columnist Marc Fisher)

TN-SEN: A Little Campaigning on Monday, A Lot More On its Way

AP reports, “Democratic Senate nominee Harold Ford Jr. campaigned in his native West Tennessee on Monday, trying to energize black voters who might not always vote in midterm elections.”

The Tennessean reports that first lady Laura Bush will be in town to campaign for Bob Corker today, and Bill Clinton is scheduled to campaign for Ford on Wednesday. And coming up this Sunday, Corker will have Senator John McCain (R-AZ) stumping for him; Ford will have Barack Obama (busy day for Barack).

CT-SEN: A Curious Partnership

Carpetbagger Report reports on a pretty odd arrangement whereby Senator Joe Lieberman (I) has been campaigning with Senator Susan Collins (R-ME). Why is it odd? Because Lieberman is the ranking Democratic member of the Homeland Security Committee, which Collins happens to chair, meaning that Lieberman represents the Democrats’ interests against Collins and the GOP within the committee. As Carpetbagger points out, Lieberman’s campaigning with Collins is basically conceding that he is now her… ehh… hm, what’s the term for it… perhaps this album cover captures it best.

As Carpetbagger writes: “There are rumors that Lieberman cut some kind of deal with the Dem leadership a while back that will allow him to keep his seniority in the chamber, but this campaign appearance with Collins raises some serious questions. … It's too soon to say whether Lieberman is going to win next week or not, but his position in his party – or what was his party – needs some serious review from the caucus.”

The NY Times’ Caucus blog has more on Lieberman’s bizarro metamorphosis from champion of the Dems to champion of the GOP. Meanwhile the AP reports on NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s (R) Monday campaign press conference in which he endorsed Lieberman. The Hartford Courant has more on that. And the NY Daily News also endorses Lieberman.

As for Lamont, the Times reports: Pressing Lieberman Once More, Lamont Shifts Back to Iraq War. The Nation’s John Nichols reviews Lamont's campaign and its recent refocusing on the Iraq issue, ultimately wondering “whether the right message is coming in time to renew Ned Lamont's prospects in an election that is barely a week away.”

PA-SEN: Hilarious to Witness

Anyone who has read the Midterm Roundup more than once knows how much sick, perverted, delicious pleasure it takes in picking on Kathryn Jean Lopez. To the Roundup, the greatest thing about the Pennsylvania Senate race is not just watching Rick Santorum crash and burn, but doing so at the hands of a less-than-spectacular challenger, Bob Casey. Practically every day K-Lo is sobbing over the fact that her hero is getting waxed by a veritable nobody.

Monday: The Patheticness of a Campaign Not Trying (But Winning?!): “Can it be true that the Casey campaign has not issued a press release since August?”

And from this past weekend: Casey “blended into the scenery”: “Pennsylvanians really don't want to trade a leader for this. They can't.”

But OK look, the Roundup likes to consider itself just barely thoughtful and considerate enough that it can put aside its Santorum Schadenfreude for one moment and admit that, or at least fail to completely ignore the creeping sense that, Santorum might not entirely be the Lord-of-the-Rings-quoting-we-need-to-go-to-war-against-Sweden-right-now-to-protect-American-families!-espousing moron that the Roundup often dismisses him as.

Don’t get the Roundup wrong – considering how badly he’s losing to Bob Casey, Santorum is still a moron, even if only politically. And it seems like every other day Santorum outdoes himself with a more egregious statement than his last (the most recent: Bob Casey is “aiding and abetting terrorism and genocide”).

But in the spirit of high-minded liberalism, the Roundup might direct you to K-Lo’s Down but Not Out, a relatively more level-headed and realistic look at Santorum’s plight (“Santorum’s stump speeches can sound a little bit like a seminar at the American Enterprise Institute…”, “truth be told, Santorum lays it on thick, but if you agree with him…”). Or, if you’re weary of K-Lo, then check out two articles she links to in her piece – the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Santorum profile from a couple Sundays ago and the NY Times’ David Brooks op-ed on Santorum from this past Sunday (sub. req.). K-Lo’s employer, the National Review put Santorum on its cover this week, though the article is available only to subscribers. And this morning the Times reports further on Santorum’s race with: A G.O.P. Leader and Star Struggles for Traction.

Bottom line, the Roundup will be thrilled to see Santorum get spanked on Election Day. But it feels like it’ll be able to enjoy that defeat with a greater sort of… credibility perhaps… after having at least given the guy the time of day (so you see, really, this has just been a big, selfish, guilt-absolving ploy). Bob Casey rules!

FL-SEN: Katherine Harris Pitches a No-Hitter

The Palm Beach Post’s Q Blog repots: “There are 22 daily newspapers in Florida. All 22 have endorsed Bill Nelson for re-election to the U.S. Senate.” (Tip o’ the hat, Political Wire)

FL-22: Klein-Shaw Klash in Final Debate

AP reports, “U.S. Rep. Clay Shaw and Democratic challenger Ron Klein clashed over prescription drugs and the war in Iraq on Sunday during the final debate in one of the most hotly contested congressional races in the country.”

For more on the Florida races, WPLG-TV Local 10 sent candidates a survey and posted their unedited video responses online; including gubernatorial candidates Charlie Crist (R) and Jim Davis (D), Senate candidates Nelson and Harris, FL-22’s Klein and Shaw, and… CHARLES BRONSON, back from the dead and running for Commissioner of Agriculture. Vigilante, city style – Judge, Jury, and Commissioner of Agriculture!

IL-10: Reader ARG in Chicago’s Wish is the Roundup’s Command

ARG in Chicago notes that challenger Dan Seals (D) has a 48%-46% lead over incumbent (Assistant Majority Whip) Mark Kirk (R) in the latest poll.

Seals still must be considered the underdog, but as the Chicago Tribune points out, it’s not for a lack of effort or ability: “As he tries to become the first Democrat to represent the North Shore's 10th Congressional District in more than two decades, first-time candidate Dan Seals has raised over $1.2 million, aired pricey TV ads and met thousands of voters. But with Election Day nearing, Seals hasn't achieved the one thing he wants most: more face time against three-term Republican Rep. Mark Kirk.” The two candidates debated for the very first time just last Thursday.

Kirk’s biggest challenge seems simply to be that competitive raises in the 8^th and 6^th districts are getting all the media attention. But he’s getting more. The Chicago Daily Herald ran a profile of him over the weekend: His name is Dan Seals, and he wants to talk to you, and on the Monday before Election Day he’ll have the support of Illinois' two senators, Dick Durbin and Barack Obama. The question at this point is just whether it will be enough at this late stage.

NH-02: Candidates in Potentially Close Race Meet in Forum

Hotline noted Monday morning that the NRCC recently spent $365,000 on an ad in New Hampshire’s 2^nd district on behalf of previously-assumed-safe incumbent Representative Charlie Bass (R), suggesting newfound GOP concerns about holding onto Bass' seat. Attorney Paul Hodes (D) is challenging, and has gotten the most traction, Hotline notes, out of his persistent badgering of Bass over the war in Iraq.

On Sunday the two candidates appeared along with some gubernatorial and state senate candidates for a forum at Temple Beth Abraham to answer audience questions. As usual, Iraq was the primary bone of contention, but also covered were Iran, Afghanistan, and North Korea: “Bass and Hodes sparred over the war in Iraq and the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, among other issues. During his address, Hodes criticized an administration that has ‘taken us down the wrong path in foreign policy’ and a Congress ‘characterized with arrogance and corruption.’ Bass said he was proud of his work in office and defended the administration’s choices involving Iraq.” The Concord Monitor has further coverage of the forum.

PA-18: Staffers Totally Pointlessly Allege Murphy Misconduct

Hotline notes this Pittsburgh Post-Gazette report:

U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy, who is seeking his third term in Congress, has mixed campaign activities and official government work in a manner that present and former staffers consider unethical or in violation of House rules, according to interviews with a half-dozen of them.

Some of those interviewed described the practices as routine, others as sporadic, but all said they were disturbed by the conduct. The allegations primarily concern the use of taxpayer-funded congressional staff and resources to do work they viewed as part of Mr. Murphy's political campaign.

That can be a difficult charge to prove because workers are permitted to perform campaign tasks when on voluntary personal time, and there is no clock they punch to switch time. But it's clear that multiple staff members believed that what they were instructed to do crossed an ethical line.

For his part, Murphy issued a statement saying he would cooperate fully with any House ethics committee review. “While it is interesting that these concerns have been raised one week before the election, I take all allegations of improper action very seriously,” he said. Yeah, the Midterm Roundup wouldn’t be too worried either, if it were Murphy. Sadly he is not one of the Murphy’s engaged in an actual race in Pennsylvania (that would be Lois Murphy (D) challenging in PA-06, or Patrick Murphy (D) challenging in PA-08). This Murphy is safe for reelection. And what, like the House ethics committee is going to get jack done in the span of 1 week?

TX-22: Seriously?

The Houston Chronicle reports, “The Republican write-in effort to hold former Rep. Tom DeLay's congressional seat, once viewed as a long shot, has created a tight race, according to a Houston Chronicle-11 News poll. Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.” Zogby International conducted the poll, though the piece doesn’t say whether it was a phone poll or an interactive poll.

The Plank’s Michael Crowley has more on the poll results:

Alert commenters note that if you look closely at the poll results, you see that Democrat Nick Lampson is about tied with a generic write-in candidate. But only about 80 percent of write-in voters, if I read the breakdown correctly, say they'll cast a vote for the GOP candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, meaning Lampson still has a decent edge.”

Regardless of the poll, write-in candidate Shelley Nebasdsa-Grndndfibbs (R) was no doubt given a boost Monday as President Bush came to Sugar Land to campaign for her. The president however betrayed a woeful lack of understanding of modern day voting systems when he instructed the crowd to “bring your pencil” to the polls to vote for the write-in candidate. Of course voters will in fact be using electronic voting machines, as they have for years.

TX-23: Drama?

CQ reports, “The court-ordered redistricting imposed in August on Texas’ 23rd District may not have placed Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla’s bid for an eighth House term in mortal danger, as he still is favored to win re-election.”

Still and all, the redistricting not only diluted the strong Republican flavor of the district, but it also created a primary the same day as the general election – a la Louisiana. This means that Bonilla and all 6 Democrats (the court ruling attracted much more competition than Bonilla would normally have faced) will appear on the ballot, along with one independent. While Bonilla will almost assuredly be the leading vote-getter, if the rest of the field can keep him under 50% total then he and the runner-up would face off in a runoff on a date to be determined in December.

KARL ROVE HYSTERIA: Show Me THE Math!

Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal has some reaction to the Karl Rove mania that appears to be infesting people’s campaign-coverage-tunnel-vision-enfeebled brains in the last week of the elections. First and foremost the Roundup urges all of you to read Josh’s post about Rove from yesterday, if you haven’t already. The guy is bluffing. Blumenthal provides some insight into the bluff.

First, here is an excerpt from an interview NPR’s Robert Siegel conducted with Rove last week (Note: The transcript on NPR’s website is a “rush transcript.” Blumenthal revised it to include the discussion between Siegel and Rove on the races in Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio and Pennsylvania.):

SIEGEL: We are in the home stretch though and many would consider you on the optimistic end of realism about...

ROVE: Not that you would be exhibiting a bias or anything like that, you're just making a comment, right?

SIEGEL: I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at.

ROVE: No, you are not, no you're not, no you're not, you're not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week [for candidates for the US House and US Senate, and Governor.]** You may be looking at 4 or 5 public polls a week that talk about attitudes nationally but that do not impact the outcome of individual races.

SIEGEL: If you could name races between, certainly Senate races, all...

ROVE: Like the poll today that showing Corker's ahead in Tennessee or the poll showing Allen is pulling away in the Virginia Senate race.

SIEGEL: Leading Webb, in Virginia, yea...

ROVE: Yeah, exactly.

SIEGEL: ...you've seen the DeWine race and the Santorum race and, I don't want to...you call [the] races.

ROVE: I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

SIEGEL: I don't know if we're entitled to a different math but your...

ROVE: I said THE math.

First of all – regarding Allen’s “pulling away” from Webb, here are the most recent polls:

Webb 51%, Allen 47.2% (Zogby International)

Webb 50%, Allen 46% (conducted for CNN by Opinion Research Corp.)

Webb 43%, Allen 38% (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D))

And the latest Rasmussen poll is still in the premium section, but according to Pollster.com and Raising Kane, it has Webb 51%, Allen 46%.

Josh has more on these latest movements.

(In fairness to Rove – come on, he’s a good guy, he deserves our fairness – his interview was after all conducted last week before these numbers emerged.)

So now, here is Blumenthal’s take on “THE math.”:

If you wanted to build the a true "dream" polling scorecard for the House, you would combine Rove's spreadsheet with the counterpart maintained by Rahm Emmanuel at the DCCC. The numbers in that combined scorecard spreadsheet would represent the collective efforts of the most pollsters with by far the most experience measuring preferences at the Congressional District level.

We cannot see that data, unfortunately, but we might be able to judge Rove's spin by the number of partisan polls that have been publicly released by the campaigns and party committees. Of the polls in our House database, 43 of the partisan polls released since Labor Day came from Democrats, only 11 from Republicans.

I am not giving away any trade secrets in pointing out that campaigns and party committees release internal polls only when they show good news for their candidates. Bad news rarely sees the light of day. If Rove's internal polls really add up to a "Republican House," it is hard to imagine we would not see more Republican polls showing it.

Or, in far fewer words… KRAM IT, KARL.

IYI (If You’re Interested)

MD-SEN: Black Democrats Cross Party Lines To Back Steele For U.S. Senate (WaPo), and Black Democrats support Steele (Wash Times)

HASTERT WATCH: Controversy Gives Hastert Time at Home (NY Times… Well that sounds nice, doesn’t it? Some quality time with the wife, polishing that beautiful plate collection… “Sure, it bothers you,” Mr. Hastert said in an interview in his headquarters. “But I understand, if I’ve got 15 television trucks sitting outside my house, and I’ve got a helicopter looking in the window, you probably don’t want to bring that into somebody else’s district.” Oh. Maybe not so nice.)

LYNNE CHENEY’S BLITZER BASHING: Dick loves it. Apparently he also loves spousal abuse: “We refer to it around the house as the slapdown.”

SADDAM VERDICT: Saddam verdict delay? (NY Daily News, reporting that the announcement of Saddam Hussein’s verdict could possibly be pushed back until after the midterm elections (Tip o’ the hat, Carpetbagger Report))

NATIONWIDE: Pot, Slots and Doves: A Look at the Year’s Quirkier Ballot Questions (CQ – The funniest one? “Oklahoma has a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would allow alcoholic beverages to be sold on Election Day.” Hell yeah! Let’s get sloshed and go vote!)

CQ also takes a look at the effects of some of the more substantial and decisive ballot measures with: Unlike 2004, Ballot Initiatives May Benefit Both Parties.

NATIONWIDE: In Key House Races, Democrats Run to the Right (NY Times)

NATIONWIDE: The Hill sends out its latest Campaign 2006 Tipsheet. Among other items, the Tipsheet provides one more reason for your esteem of John McCain to decline unabatedly – “Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) PAC has no plans to cut ties with top GOP strategist Terry Nelson, who ended his contract with Wal-Mart this week amid complaints from Democrats and union groups over his authorizing of the now-infamous Tennessee Senate ad linking Democratic nominee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. to a Playboy Bunny. … Straight Talk America will continue working with Nelson, PAC director Craig Goldman said Monday.”

NATIONWIDE: Remember, Politics Is Local (NY Times, with a 2 paragraph piece the point of which the Midterm Roundup can’t quite surmise. Maybe some kind of computer glitch cut off the rest. It doesn’t even mention Tip O’Neill. How could you forget Tip O’Neill?!? TIP O’NEILL!!!)

NATIONWIDE: Political Wire, with the help of a couple of experts, keeps us up to date on where to keep our eyes fixed: Races to Watch: Greg Giroux and Races to Watch: Chuck Todd. They talk about a variety of races, but both agree that a big one is KY-03 – that’s right, the one featuring the best names in the country (Northup and Yarmuth).

NATIONWIDE: Fearing Election Day? (NRO’s John J. Miller provides his own rundown of the big Senate races)

NATIONWIDE: In for a Scare? (The Weekly Standard’s Irwin M. Stelzer writes, “The White House's economic good news may not be enough to mollify voters.”)

NATIONWIDE: Nanananananananahhh…

There's a force in the universe… that makes things happen.

All you have to do is get in touch with it.

Stop thinking. Let things happen… and be…

…the wave.