Corker and Ford debate for the first time since “the ad,” a new and different ruling is handed down in Foley Town, and the GOP pulls the plug on the Ohio Senate race (for real this time). The Midterm Roundup is quivering with anticipation – Only 2 days left for the OCTOBER SURPRISE!!! WHAT WILL IT BE?!?!

Let’s get right to the important stuff…

The BIG 3:

MO-SEN: I See Your Record is as Big as Mine…

More of an IYI item here, but the Kansas City Star sizes up the opposing records of Senator Jim Talent (R) and challenging state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) in this dead heat of a race. For Talent – just how reliable of a Bush rubber stamp has he been? Reliable, but not as lockstep as some. More importantly, just how much does Jim Talent look like Duckie from Pretty in Pink? A lot, the Midterm Roundup would submit. And for McCaskill – what kind of state auditor has she been? One who stands behind her audits.

Whom does the Star prefer? McCaskill, whom the city endorses this morning.

And for much more on the state’s controversial Amendment 2 ballot initiative, the one regarding stem-cell research that Michael J. Fox was talking about in the ad Rush Limbaugh infamously criticized:

Stem cell measure merges with tight Senate race in Missouri (AP)

Amendment 2 opponents rally their cause (AP)

Stars join stem cell fight (AP)

Amendment 2 and the economy: (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)

Missouri stem-cell debate gets the spotlight (Townhall.com)

Stem cell: no simple division (Columbia Missourian)

The Stem Cell Hard Sell (The Weekly Standard)

TN-SEN: Final Debate Recap!

Harold Ford, Jr. (D) and Bob Corker (R) met Saturday for their final debate before Election Day. The AP reports, “The candidates in one of the country's tightest Senate races disagreed on a strategy for the war in-…” Bah! The Midterm Roundup doesn’t give a crap about any of that! What about the ad??? THE AD!!!

The candidates were questioned about the advertisement but spoke only briefly about it.

“As far as negative ads, I don't like them, either,” Corker said, adding that he has asked for independently financed ads like the Playboy ad not to air. “I'd like my opponent to join me in asking that all of these ads come down,” he said.

Ford said he wouldn't care if all negative ads by independent organizations were taken off the air.

“If there was an ad that ran like the one that ran here ... if anyone I knew or may have been associated with had anything to do with it, that ad would have been down an hour after I learned (about it),” Ford said.

Corker, who called for the ad to be pulled, has deemed it “tacky,” while Ford has called it “smutty.” Neither would say whether they think it is racist.

Brraaaaggghhh! Roundup needs more!

The final question of the debate focused on an advertisement by the Republican National Committee that linked Rep. Ford with a Playboy playmate.

Mr. Corker said, “I'm the only person in this race, that has asked for independent expenditure ads to come down. I've done that twice, and they've come down. I'd like my opponent to join me in asking that all of these ads come down.”

Rep. Ford said, “If there was an ad that ran like the one that ran for over a week, that ad would have been down an hour after I learned (about it).”

Rep. Ford termed the recent advertisement “smut,” but said he wanted to move on from the negative ads.

“That's all in the past,” the congressman said. “We're here this evening for a different note.”

Mrrreeeeeehhhh more, more!!!

But the negative TV attack ads of the past three weeks surfaced at the end of the face-off as veteran WTVF-TV anchor Chris Clark asked both to comment.

“I was a little surprised to see the smut and the slime coming into my living room during family time,” Ford said of two ads sponsored by the Republican National Committee. One featured a bare-shouldered blond woman saying she had met Ford at the “Playboy party” and asking him to “call me.”

Corker said he didn't like the ads and that he asked his national party to remove them. He asked Ford to join him in calling for all ads not put up directly by the two candidates' campaigns to cease. But he said after the debate that the national Democratic Party is spending $2.7 million on ads compared to $813,000 by the national GOP over the last two weeks. When the two campaigns' own spending is included, there is expected to be parity in spending through the Nov. 7 election.

Ahem. Okay. That’s enough. You can watch the entire debate here.

VA-SEN: How to Make a Non-Story a Story

The Carpetbagger Report has a spot-on recap of how exactly this whole Jim Webb racy novel story – apparently legitimate enough for WaPo to devote its Saturday front page to, and for the NY Times to cover as well – was born: “Apparently, real reporters didn't care that Webb's novels included sexual content. The Allen campaign kept pitching the story, but journalists kept blowing it off. Who cares about a few paragraphs from a 20-year-old novel, especially a novel embraced by conservative Republicans? Left with no other avenues, Allen's team turned to Drudge, who apparently didn't hesitate. The online world reacted to Drudge, the political world reacted to the online world, and the mainstream media responded in turn. Now, it's on the front page.”

You’ve gotta love the pictures Drudge Report used for its report on the story: Jim Webb is ashamed! George Allen is triumphant! For a little balance, feel free to check out Jim Webb’s response to this whole story at his latest campaign rally.

On Friday Carpetbagger Report pointed out that plenty of conservatives – including of course Lynne Cheney – have written some similarly eyebrow-raising stuff in fictional novels themselves. And one additional point: “The Webb novel that has so outraged Allen's conservative allies? It was praised and endorsed by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), which probably wouldn't have happened were the book some smut-filled pornography.”

And in case you haven’t heard, George Allen has some dirt of his own probably worth taking a look at. Josh explains the strategy behind the Allen campaign’s timing of the Webb novel stuff, hoping that there isn’t time left in the race for the media probe pendulum to swing back towards him.

WaPo does have a response piece out this morning: Webb Defends Novels Against Attacks. But they are clearly not ready to wade into the territory of Allen’s divorce and arrest records, neither of which receives any mention in the piece, which is really just a report of the Webb rally linked to above. The Washington Times also reports on Webb’s reaction and includes in their piece the breaking news that Michelle Malkin apparently has a functioning brain: “The Allen campaign's decision to introduce the excerpts, in a close race that will be decided Nov. 7, angered Democrats and disappointed at least one Republican. ‘It's so dirty,’ Michelle Malkin, a conservative columnist, said on Fox News. ‘It looks desperate. It looks pathetic, and it looks so immature. ... This is fiction.’”

NRO’s Kathryn Jean Lopez also betrays a refreshing capacity for reason in her classification of the Allen gambit as “lame and unbecoming.”

While the mainstream media might be backing off, Taylor Marsh at Huffington Post has more on George Allen's Arrest Record.

CT-SEN: Micro-Roundup

Boom – NY Times endorses Ned Lamont. The Hartford Courant, on the other hand, likes Joe Lieberman.

Seems Lamont could use the Times’ help. In a clear last-minute effort to make up ground, Lamont challenged Lieberman to a 4^th debate. Lieberman declined. Whatever, who needs Joe to debate? Lamont and his new best friend Alan Schlesinger will debate next Thursday without the senator.

Meanwhile Lieberman is enjoying a big helping hand from NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R). Lamont has received some help from Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), who sent out an e-mail this past week urging Connecticut residents to volunteer for Lamont. But Sixers dismisses Obama’s support as “Wow. He hit ‘send’.” And Firedoglake isn’t satisfied either, noting that Obama canceled plans at the last minute to actually campaign for Lamont in Connecticut earlier this month.

AP reports that Lieberman has unveiled a new ad effort using flyers and a radio jingle entitled, “A Good Man is Hard to Find,” to remind voters where to find him on the ballot. According to Political Wire, “Lieberman will be no higher than fifth on the ballot and in some towns could be as low as the sixth, seventh or eighth line,” thanks to his inability to win his primary. If Lieberman really wants to stick in voters’ heads, the Roundup suggests ending his new jingle, “By Mennen!”

The same AP piece also provides this notable tidbit: “The Lamont campaign, meanwhile, revised the figure it originally provided for how many Connecticut residents received an e-mail from Illinois Sen. Barack Obama urging them to rally behind Lamont. A Lamont spokesman had said Thursday that the e-mail from Obama, a prospective 2008 presidential candidate and rising party star, went to 5,000 state residents. The spokesman said Friday the e-mail actually went to 250 Connecticut residents who are on Obama's list of supporters in the state.” Ahh… mm… well. The Roundup is sure the lefty blogosphere will remain appreciative of Obama’s support.

OH-SEN: A Final Debate, and a Final GOP Death Cough

AP: Senate candidates hold fourth and final debate: “Republican Sen. Mike DeWine on Friday sharply criticized his Democratic challenger going all the way back to his days as Ohio secretary of state more than 20 years ago, accusing Sherrod Brown of running a "scandal-ridden office" and being an absent lawmaker who has not helped the state.”

Toledo Blade: Senate hopefuls spar for last time: “Yesterday was Freaky Friday in Ohio's U.S. Senate race. The candidates' fourth and final debate, over lunch at the City Club of Cleveland, saw them switching places like mother and daughter in the classic movie. Suddenly, Sherrod Brown was oozing confidence and sucking up to senators across the aisle. Mike DeWine was attacking at every opportunity and linking his foe to a ‘culture of corruption.’”

Columbus Dispatch: Respect a no-show at final Senate showdown: “In their final debate before the Nov. 7 election, Sen. Mike DeWine and Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown exchanged a barrage of partisan assaults as each claimed to be the one best able to work in a bipartisan fashion in the U.S. Senate.”

Cleveland Plain Dealer: Brown, DeWine fighting to finish: “The hourlong confrontation Friday before the City Club of Cleveland quickly reverted to familiar attacks. At times, the men were like two boxers slugging it out in the late rounds, with punches that long ago had lost their sting.”

Akron Beacon Journal: DeWine, Brown take shots: “What thin veneer of civility remained between U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine and his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, was quickly stripped away once their fourth and final debate started Friday.”

So then, you know how Ken Mehlman has been vociferously denying rumors that the GOP is pulling the plug on the Ohio Senate race after the NY Times reported as much earlier this month? Well, it looks like Mehlman is going to have some more denying to do: the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports, “The Republican Party has canceled its plans to run ads supporting Mike DeWine in the crucial final week of his tough re-election race, the party confirmed Thursday night.” The AP confirms, “The Republican National Committee said Thursday it won't run any television ads in Ohio on behalf of Sen. Mike DeWine during the final week of the campaign.” But hey, at least DeWine has all those sweet newspaper endorsements to put up on his wall.

P.S. Can anyone help the Midterm Roundup out here? It’s been trying to figure out for months now who Mike DeWine looks like. After wracking its brain the best it can come up with is a misbegotten cross between Stephen King and Judge Doom from Who Framed Roger Rabbit. Any other suggestions would be much appreciated.

FOLEYGATE: Shocking, Absolutely Shocking

WaPo reports, “The House ethics committee has all but wrapped up the investigative phase of its probe into the actions of former representative Mark Foley, informing key witnesses that they will not be summoned back for more questioning, lawyers in the case said yesterday. But those lawyers indicated that the committee is unlikely to release its report on the Florida Republican -- or even an interim memo -- before the Nov. 7 elections.”

If only there had been a way to bet money on this. Was this a category on any of those politics prediction market websites like intrade.com or tradesports.com? Did any readers out there happen to make any wagers on this?

FL-16: Appeals Court Reverses Polling Place Notice Decision

Back on October 18, a circuit court ruled that elections officials would not be allowed to post signs at polling stations informing people that a vote for Mark Foley (whose name remains on the ballot) would count toward his replacement candidate, state Representative Joe Negron.

On Friday however a state appeals court ruled that polling station supervisors are permitted to give out notices, leaving the ultimate decision up to the individual supervisors in the 16^th district’s 8 counties. To appease Democrats, who sued earlier that a sign specifically regarding Foley/Negron amounted to electioneering, the court ruling demands that the notices must be neutral and include the names of the Democratic candidate, Tim Mahoney, and the independent, Emmie Ross.

NV-03: Sweet Tomatoes What a Defense!

That’s all. The Roundup just wanted to use that headline.

WA-05: Overlooked No Longer!

Last week reader low fi hollered out, and the Roundup heard the call… eventually:

“Is anyone else keeping an eye on the race in WA-5? … Behind the scenes, the GOP sounds particularly worried, and has been pumping a lot of money into the district for ad buys. The loss of Foley, then Speaker of the House, was symbolic of the 1994 ‘Republican Revolution.’ Could the loss of that seat be equally emblematic? Why'd this race get overlooked? Any thoughts?”

For quick background: Tom Foley (D) represented Washington’s 5^th from 1965 to 1995 and in 1989 was elected to serve as Speaker of the House. In 1994, perhaps the most notable casualty of the Republican Revolution, Foley became the first sitting Speaker of the House to lose his bid for re-election since William Pennington (R-NJ) in 1860. Ouch.

Since then the seat has been in Republican hands. Currently holding the seat is 1^st term incumbent Representative Cathy McMorris (R). Challenging her is rancher Dr. Peter Goldmark (D), a former Chairman of the Board of Washington State University and former Director of the state Department of Agriculture.

Low fi notes this AP story about McMorris’ spirited campaign and the fact that attack ads currently blanketing the district are a sign of the GOP’s unease. Pretty good call – last week McMorris was unexpectedly included in the NRCC’s “final push” list of candidates most in need of donor support. And on Friday the Goldmark campaign was added in the latest wave of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” fundraising program.

The conservative Washington blog Sound Politics provides some opposing perspective, noting that there have been no independent polls to give credence to the talk of the race tightening. Despite the recent ramp up in activity, McMorris unquestionably remains an underdog in the race. CQ currently has the race rated Republican Favored, though it was shifted from Safe Republican back in late August. Time for another shift? The Roundup will keep its Roundupy eyes peeled.

NATIONWIDE: CQ Issues Final Special Report of Midterm Election Season

CQ went election crazy on Saturday, issuing its final nationwide report before November 7, including analysis of every competitive race in the country. Their final overview of the political landscape finds the November 7 elections shaping up as a collision between Republicans and Democrats. Just kidding, they actually go a little deeper than that. Here’s a recap:

The overall theme of the report is The Battering Ram (Democrats) and The Bulwark (Republicans), or more literally, the Republican Party's historical fundraising and voter turnout proficiency versus the ever-expanding field of competitive GOP seats and a consistent decline in the GOP’s support among voters on issues across the board, with the result equally “a Congress up for grabs, and an energized Democratic Party trying hard not to seem overconfident.”

In the Senate, they take a look at the balance of power in four close races. Actually, as far as the Roundup can tell, they take a look at the balance of power in every race, without specifically enunciating which 4 the headline refers to. They list Missouri, New Jersey, and Tennessee as No Clear Favorite, Virginia as Leans Republican, and 7 seats as Leans Democratic, 4 of which are Republican held (MT, OH, PA, and RI). The Roundup is guessing the big 4 are the 3 Toss Ups plus Virginia. It supposes it should probably consider turning its BIG 3 section into a BIG 4 section. Thanks a lot Bob Menendez, you crummy… bummy… [under the breath mumbling].

Then there’s the House, which CQ breaks down into 4 sections:

The Northeast is Chilly for the GOP. Of the 22 competitive races they look at, only 2 are not Republican held – Vermont’s At-Large seat being vacated by Independent Bernie Sanders (which is now Leans Democratic), and Maryland’s 3^rd district seat being vacated by Senate contender Ben Cardin (which is now Democrat Favored). 6 GOP seats are No Clear Favorite and 2 are Lean Democratic (Reynolds’ NY-26 and Weldon’s PA-07).

The South is Still Hospitable to Republicans, Mostly. Of the 18 competitive races here, again only 2 are held by Democrats (GA-03 and GA-12) and both of those Lean Democrat. Hotline noted Saturday that both these seats are seen as rare GOP pickup opportunities:

Republicans think they have a shot, if they play their cards right, of picking up GA 08 [Democrat Jim Marshall’s seat was in GA-03 until it was redistricted and renumbered GA-08], a district where Pres. Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry by more than 25K votes in '04. Dem Jim Marshall is the current occupant. That explains why Pres. Bush will spend Monday and Tuesday in two relatively small media markets. He's in Statesboro, GA for Ex-Rep. Max Burns on Monday and in Perry, GA for Ex-Rep. Mac Collins Tuesday. Collins faces Marshall in CD 08; Burns faces Rep. John Barrow in GA 12. Marshall and Barrow know how to win in these districts, but the one catch: the Republican GOTV program statewide, a legacy of Ralph Reed's '02 efforts, is very strong, and there's a significant tailwind behind Gov. Sonny Perdue's re-election bid.

2 GOP seats Lean Democratic here (FL-16 and TX-22) and 2 more are No Clear Favorite (FL-22 and NC-11).

The Midwest is Democrats’ Most Fertile Fields. A total of 28 competitive seats here. 8 of them are Democrat held but all are either Leans Democratic or Democrat Favored. 8 seats here are labeled No Clear Favorite, all of which are GOP held. And one GOP seat, John Hostettler’s IN-08, Leans Democrat.

And the West has Unexpected Openings for Democrats. 20 seats in play here, 5 of which are Dem held, but all of those are Democrat Favored. 2 GOP seats are No Clear Favorite (NM-01 and WA-08) and one Leans Democratic (CO-07, and open seat but previously held by a Republican). And a total of 8 GOP seats are only Leans Republican.

CQ wraps up its report with Eight Electoral Signposts: The Final View. Here they divulge the method behind the magic, and conclude that their final evaluation “has some slightly improved news for the GOP, but in the main the party continues to face a situation at least as sour as the one the Democrats confronted a dozen years ago.” The 8 indicators they use are: congressional polls, presidential polls, president’s policies, recruitment, ethics, the economy, retirements, and pre-election jolt.

And last but not least, if you’re at all skeptical of CQ’s ability to forecast elections, allow them to reassure you with this message from the editor entitled, Just in Case You Forgot, We’re Really Smart and We Know More than Anyone Else. The Midterm Roundup is reminded vaguely of that montage scene from The Karate Kid – “You’re the best! Aroouuund! Nothing’s gonna ever keep you down!” Hey wait a second, Zabka just kicked that guy in the balls!

IYI (If You’re Interested)

CT-SEN: Joementum Returns (The Weekly Standard), and A Senate Race Riding on Cash Flow (NY Times)

CT, NY, PA, OH, IN: The Blowout Belt: The most vulnerable Republicans are found in a five-state swath, from Indiana to Connecticut (The Weekly Standard)

TX-17: GOP hopes fade for taking district Bush calls home (Wash Times)

NATIONWIDE: Democrats Push to Counter G.O.P. in Turnout Race (NY Times)

NATIONWIDE: GOP Retains Cash Edge Over Democrats (WaPo)

NATIONWIDE: Campaigns go negative for a reason (LA Times)

NATIONWIDE: Iraq weighs on voters' minds, but a set of wedge issues could help tip the scales (Newsweek), and This Time, Ballot Issues Could Rally Liberal Base (WaPo)

And as one final, especially frivolous item:

It has come to the Midterm Roundup’s attention that the Colbert Report video that it linked to in its NY-19 item toward the end of last Wednesday’s Roundup did not in fact include Stephen and John Hall’s duet performance of the national anthem, as the Roundup believed. Their national anthem duet was actually some kind of extra, “exclusive” footage that didn’t air on the show but can be found on the Colbert Report website here, or on youtube here. Sorry, the Roundup got confused. Anyway, it finally watched the actual aired segment, the one it mistakenly linked to Wednesday, only to find to its shock and delight that Stephen and John performed a different duet of… yes, that’s right… Orleans’ “Dance with Me.” Okay look, the Roundup’s not going to make a big deal out of this. It’s not going to make a big deal out of the fact that it originally professed its love for “Dance with Me,” reciting those bewitching lyrics for the very first time, all the way back on September 13 during its New York primary results recap. It’s not going to make some ridiculous claim that Colbert’s apparent fondness for the song (and not for “Still the One”) is some kind of grand vindication or something like that. And it certainly would never dare suggest that Colbert is in fact a devoted reader and follower of the Roundup and was swayed by the Roundup’s repeated assertions that “Dance with Me” is vastly superior to “Still the One.” That would be preposterous. Instead, the Roundup will simply rest contentedly and let the music carry us out…

Dance with meeeeeeeee, I want to be your partner. Can't you seeeeeeeee, the music is just starting. Night is falling, and I am falling. Dance with meeeeeeeee…