It’s Tuesday, October 10. In 4 more Tuesdays we’ll go to the polls and vote on how we feel about what’s going on in this country. What is going on? Well that’s a good question, a mighty good question. Welcome to Day 1 of the Final Month of the 2006 Midterm Election Season.

Excuse the grandiosity, but there’s a phrase that Martin Amis wrote in some essay from a while ago that has been stuck in the Midterm Roundup’s head and really feels right just about now, considering recent developments. Amis was talking about the days following 9/11 when he wrote: “Politics stood revealed as a veritable Walpurgis Night of the irrational.”

The Roundup could counteract such ponderousness with something like, say, a quote from Old School, like the one Frank delivers to the animal tender at Max’s birthday party, after being told that he has a tranquilizer dart in his neck: “You're crazy man, you're crazy. I like you, but you're crazy.” But as much fun as the Roundup might be having with Foleygate, it feels flippant at best, perverse at worst, to say that it really “likes” all this excitement.

Back on October 2, Josh summed it up pretty well when he asked, “Is it me or is all hell breaking loose in this country's politics?” Carpetbagger Report echoed the sentiment and also added a link to Chris Bowers at MyDD, who ran down the laundry list of stories, any one of which could be a front page headline in itself, that had piled up over the past couple weeks. And those things were written a week ago. We have since seen the Foley story intensify, Bush and the GOP plummet back down in the polls, Jack Abramoff and Duke Cunningham of all characters reemerge in the news, and of course North Korea’s nuclear bomb test. The scandal of the year – about a sitting Senator and possible 2008 presidential nominee regularly using racist slurs in the past – has almost completely disappeared from the headlines, despite the fact that it continues to develop.

So yeah, things are hectic, to make the understatement of the year. And that most recent development about North Korea, together with the Iraq/Afghanistan stuff, pretty much tips the scale in the Roundup’s head from “fun” to “fiasco,” regardless of whether the NK detonation was a full success or not. Anyway, that’s all about that. How’s Foleygate going?

The Nation’s David Corn has an intriguing little piece – The Drip, Drip, Drip of the Foley-Hastert Scandal – all about the civil war that is potentially brewing between gays and heteros within the Republican Party. Josh cited another item by Corn in remarking upon this potentiality last Wednesday. Here, Corn expounds on “The List:”

“As this intra-Republican sniping between gays and heteros transpired, gay politicos outside Republican circles began circulating what they called The List--a roster of two dozen or so gay senior Republican staffers in the House and Senate. With a possible shoot-out about to ensue within the Republican caucus, these gay politicos--who have long been upset with gays who serve a Republican party that opposes gay rights and embraces outfits that demonize gays and lesbians--were hoping to pour gasoline on the fire. They passed the list to social conservative groups outside the Republican party with a message: maybe this is why your political agenda is not racing through this GOP-controlled Congress. Their goal is obvious--to set off a civil war within the Republican party.”

And of course Monday morning WaPo busted out a report that Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) – the openly gay Representative from Arizona’s 8^th who is retiring at the end of the term – knew about Foley’s issues way back in 2000. WaPo reported only that Kolbe spoke with Foley about the matter, without addressing the question of whether Kolbe took the news to Hastert or anyone else in the GOP leadership.

Whether or not Kolbe told Hastert anything back in 2000 is relatively irrelevant. The crux of it is that Foley’s proclivities were clearly known among Republican circles. And as Corn writes, “Hastert has yet to explain away the claims of congressional aides that his office was informed about Foley's sexual interest in pages several years ago. So even if Kolbe did not share the bad news with Hastert's office; others say they did. What's undeniable is that Hastert did not take the appropriate steps.” For some exact details on those “others” look no further than TPMmuckraker and its chronological rundown of the seemingly endless stream of who-knew-what-when revelations.

Regardless of whether or not Kolbe spoke up at the time, the news that another gay GOP’er at least knew about Foley will only fuel the simmering fire between the heteros and the group now referred to as the “Velvet Mafia” (though the Roundup is far more partial to Corn’s “Lavender Bund,” which the Roundup will shamelessly steal from Corn (if it even is his phrase to begin with) and use henceforth in referring to said group).

And now for a little game of good GOP, bad GOP, in which the Roundup will note one story that seems to bode well for Republicans, and one that seems to not. First, the good GOP:

If you’re a Democrat or just an anti-Republican, allow the NY Times to ruin your morning: Evangelicals Blame Foley, Not Republican Party. “In dozens of interviews here in southeastern Virginia, a conservative Christian stronghold that is a battleground in races for the House and Senate, many said the episode only reinforced their reasons to vote for their two Republican incumbents in neck-and-neck re-election fights, Representative Thelma Drake and Senator George Allen.

“All said the question of broader responsibility had quickly devolved into a storm of partisan charges and countercharges. And all insisted the episode would have little impact on their intentions to vote.”

“Dozens of interviews?” We’ll have to wait and see just how accurate a reflection of the entire Evangelical electorate is the Times’ narrow little piece. That’s right New York Times, the Midterm Roundup just called you narrow and little. That just happened. Yes. What do you plan to do about it? The Roundup is right here!

And the bad GOP:

Well, aside from every piece of news coming out these days about Dennis Hastert canceling fundraisers (more on that below) and Tom Reynolds losing his race (more on that too), John Hood of the conservative NRO’s Sixers, writes Republican Overconfidence in Evidence: “At meetings of conservative activists and think tankers I’ve attended over the past few days, a theme of dogged overconfidence about the November balloting was in evidence. … Basically, I see a lot of people drinking Kool-Aid. It is red. But it has no flavor and no nutritional value.” Well put.

Oh, and then there’s this, from WaPo: GOP Officials Brace for Loss Of Seven to 30 House Seats. Guess Hood was referring to the ones who expect seven.

It Sucks to Be… Hastert Edition Extended Run!

After last Friday’s pilot, the Roundup is pleased and proud to announce that It Sucks to Be… has just been picked up for a full season (it’ll be running on The CW, naturally). Dennis the Midterm Menace remains loose, running amok and spoiling everything he gets his hands on. While an MSNBC reporter told Think Progress that Hastert would be canceling all appearances and perhaps locking himself in his bedroom until November 8, collecting his urine in glass jars and playing the movie Ice Station Zebra on continuous loop 24 hours a day (unconfirmed), it looks like Denny’s will in fact be open for business this Thursday. Election Central reported yesterday that Hastert is slated to headline a private fundraiser for state Senator Peter Roskam (R – already an Election Central favorite for comments like these), running against Iraq War Veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) in the open seat IL-06 race; and investment banker David McSweeney (R), who's targeting Representative Melissa Bean (D) in IL-08. Can’t wait to see how this one comes off.

Roskam and McSweeney should consider themselves mighty privileged, because it appears that Hastert is indeed canceling the majority of his upcoming schedule. Bob Novak reports that Hastert has specifically cancelled events with no fewer than 5 struggling Republican candidates: “To begin this schedule, on Tuesday, Hastert was supposed to campaign for two endangered Republicans: freshman Rep. Mike Sodrel in Indiana and Rep. Ron Lewis in Kentucky. Hastert cancelled the Sodrel visit, and Lewis disinvited the speaker. The speaker also decided against a scheduled visit for Joy Padgett, replacing the disgraced Rep. Bob Ney in Ohio. Rep. Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania and Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, attempting a write-in campaign to replace the resigned Rep. Tom DeLay in Texas, asked Hastert not to come. Democrats may win in all five of these districts.”

Add a number 6: AP reports that a Hastert appearance at an October 18 fundraiser for beleaguered Representative Don Sherwood (R) from Pennsylvania’s 10^th district has been canceled. Sherwood spokesman Jake O’Donnell has the simple and totally innocent explanation: the Hastert appearance “was only tentatively scheduled and was canceled mostly because Sherwood had another major event the next day.” Yes, that is actually all they could come up with.

The Hastert pullout came on the same day that NRCC chief Tom Reynolds also cancelled on Sherwood, this time for a fundraiser that was scheduled for this Thursday the 12^th. The Thursday fundraiser will still go on without Reynolds, while the Hastert event has been cancelled altogether. The Times Leader reports, “Sherwood spokesman Jake O’Donnell said the cancellations were related to the scandal ‘to a degree.’ But Reynolds also had a scheduling conflict, O’Donnell said, and Hastert’s Oct. 18 appearance had been scheduled one day before another, unnamed ‘big event.’” That “big event” could be a visit from President Bush, who is allegedly supposed to be visiting the district on the 19^th according to local Republicans, but the Times Leader reports that neither the Sherwood campaign nor the White House have officially confirmed the visit. Something tells the Roundup the big event might end up being Don Sherwood eating a bowl of ice cream in front of his TV. The real question on the Roundup’s mind is who cancelled on whom? Is Sherwood trying to avoid Hastert and Reynolds, or do we think Hastert and Reynolds are shying away from Sherwood, who has recently come under heavy attack after admitting to an extramarital affair.

As for Thursday’s event for Roskam and McSweeney, Novak writes, “In the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, Hastert's presence at the reception will be an embarrassing distraction.”

Oh, and just in case you missed it, Election Central notes that a majority of Americans now believe Hastert should resign.

So yes, it sucks to be Dennis Hastert. But the Midterm Roundup would argue…

It Sucks a Little Bit More to Be… Tom Reynolds Edition

A spin-off of the hit new show It Sucks to Be…, It Sucks a Little Bit More to Be… takes a look at those celebrities and politicians whose lives are actually maybe a little bit worse than those featured on It Sucks to Be… In the end it’s tough to objectively gauge who really deserves to be on which show more, but there can be little question that Representative Tom Reynolds (R), a.k.a. the chair of the NRCC, is looking mighty sucky these days. Reynolds – whose job description, “make sure House Republicans win their races,” the Roundup is pretty sure doesn’t even specify, “make sure you win your own race,” because it is so obvious and presumptive – is now, officially, or at least according to CQ, the underdog in his race.

Yes, Reynolds’ reelection prospects are going down faster than a $2 hooker with a Titanic tattoo wearing iridium body armor. On Monday, October 2, CQ moved the race from Safe Republican to Leans Republican, skipping right over Republican favored. And then yesterday, as Election Central noted, CQ jolted it from Leans Republican to Leans Democratic, again skipping right over the intermediate No Clear Favorite rating.

Just as an indication of how conservative CQ is – not in its politics (it’s nonpartisan), but rather in its ratings, i.e. how much it takes for them to make a change – take a look at the MN-SEN race, which CQ changed from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic just this past Friday, even though Democrat Amy Klobuchar has been leading Republican Mark Kennedy by a good 10-15 points in the polls uninterruptedly SINCE JULY. Compare to NY-26, where in 2 fell swoops (if fell swoops can be plural) over the course of 1 week they have shifted the race 4 levels. Foley fever – catch it!

FL-GOV: Breaking News! Republican Not Struggling Desperately in this One Race!

It wouldn’t be very professional of the Roundup to write an entire column all about the rash of races trending toward the Democrats while totally ignoring any that might happen to move in the opposite direction. On Monday CQ shifted the Florida governor’s race from No Clear Favorite to Leans Republican; contrasting Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist’s (R) easy, undamaging September 5 primary victory with Representative Jim Davis’ (D) unexpectedly close and bruising primary win.

Reasonable enough. But wait a second – Florida… Florida, Florida… why does that name ring a bell… CQ makes it all the way to end of the piece without the slightest mention until finally, the very last sentence: “The GOP’s concern is not that these [Christian conservative] voters will flee to Davis, who is even more liberal on such issues, but that they might stay home – a possibility heightened by conservative dissent over the sex scandal involving resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley and the handling of the situation by the House Republican leadership.” Theeeeeere he is. Almost forgot about you, buddy!

OK, Back to Struggling Republicans…

Foley’s name appears a bit higher up in CQ’s subsequent piece about its rating change in Florida’s 13^th district race – the seat being left open by Katherine Harris’ Senate run, and a district that shares extensive border with the now infamous 16^th – from Republican Favored to Leans Republican: “Publicity over Foley’s actions and controversy over how the national Republican leadership dealt with them – which many GOP officials worry will depress turnout among their socially conservative base – cannot help but seep into the politics of the 13th District.”

And then in their rating change for Ohio’s 13^th district race, Foley makes it all the way to the headline: Foley Scandal May Ensure Ohio 13 Stays in Democrats’ Hands. CQ shifts this race – a battle for Senate candidate Sherrod Brown’s (D) open seat between former state Representative Betty Sutton (D) and Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin (R) – from Leans Democratic to Democrat Favored. Why? Foltin, Foley – way too similar sounding. Actually no, but the real reason is just as visceral: “The word ‘scandal’ in the headlines is about the last thing an underdog Republican candidate in Ohio, even one without the remotest association with the Foley incident, needs to see. That is because, more than in any other state, the Republican Party in Ohio has been besieged by a series of corruption scandals.”

Man they must really like this guy! Foley turns up again, this time in the headline for a race-rating change in New York’s 19^th district: Kelly’s Connections to Foley Scandal Put Her Seat at Risk. It’s like Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego – where will he pop up next? Can we get Rockapella on the horn? Does anyone know if they’re available?

The 19^th district is where former Ulster County legislator and soft rock cynosure John Hall (D) is waging a spiritedly mellow campaign against 6-term Representative Sue Kelly (R). While Hall has been the distinct underdog against the centrist Kelly from the start of the race, CQ has shifted its rating from Republican Favored to Leans Republican, writing, “The difficulties faced this year by the national Republican Party; the emergence of a strong and attention-grabbing Democratic challenger in John Hall, literally a former rock star; and now the acrid scandal involving resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley – to which Hall and fellow Democrats are trying to tie Kelly – have made this year’s race far more treacherous for the incumbent.” The Midterm Roundup will now refrain from any puns employing the Hall-co-penned pop music standard, “Still the One.” It cannot, however, possibly resist reciting the lyrics to the inexplicably less popular but far, far more excellent “Dance With Me.” Dance with meeeeeeeee, I want to be your partner. Can't you seeeeeeeee, the music is just starting. Night is falling, and I am falling. Dance with meeeeeeeee…

Foleygate certainly has been a wild ride so far and who knows how many more turns and surprises are left. This story is unbelievable for so much more than just the shocking IM’s or the leadership negligence. Foleygate is incredible for the ironic details – Foley’s anti-child predator legislation, his classification of child predators as “sickos” on America’s Most Wanted. And of course the Roundup will persist in remarking upon that unforgettable Tom Reynolds press conference, where the NRCC chair deemed a room full of children the most appropriate environment in which to answer media questions about a congressional man-boy sex scandal. Now Hotline highlights yet one more absurd irony: “MARK A. FOLEY Noted for – being a ladies man…” Yes, that would be the inscription in Foley's high school yearbook (Palm Beach Post). Honestly, what does one do? Stand up and applaud? The Roundup is going to stand up and applaud.

 

A couple big debates went down yesterday night:

VA-SEN: Allen Webb Final Debate Recap!

Allen, Webb Spar in Final TV Debate (AP)

Allen, Webb in Slashing, Wide-Ranging Debate (WaPo)

Allen, Webb spar one last time (Washington Times)

Charges, rebuttals abound in debate (Roanoke Times)

Live Blog - Allen vs. Webb (DebateScoop)

Where are those islands, exactly? (analysis from DebateScoop)

Allen vs. Webb Debate Roundup (DebateScoop)

MO-SEN: Burns Tester Debate Recap!

Patriot Act a dominant issue in debate (Billings Gazette)

Burns, Tester spar over federal funds, Patriot Act (Great Falls Tribune)

Live Blog - Burns vs. Tester (DebateScoop)

 

And coming up tonight…

TN-SEN: Corker and Ford Jr. Meet for Round 2

Round 1 was this past Saturday. The Memphis Commercial Appeal has the recap.

 

And one last little thing:

NJ-SEN: Kean Jr. turns his back on mother with son in Iraq

Passed on without comment, other than that it’s worth a look.

 

IYI (If You’re Interested)

NATIONWIDE: The Fix’s governor line: In Governors Races, Dems Still Hold Stronger Hand

NATIONWIDE: The Hill will be running a Campaign 2006 news bulletin each Monday night from now until Election Day. Here’s last night’s. Most notable item: “The scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) has trickled down to help the longest of long shots, including Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) opponent. In the days since Foley resigned, Democrat John Laesch raked in $40,000 from online contributions.” For more on Laesch:

House page scandal puts Hastert's foe in spotlight (Chicago Tribune)

Hastert's long-shot Dem opponent suddenly has media spotlight (Chicago Sun-Times)

NATIONWIDE: Coming up next week on It Sucks to Be… – a special edition featuring every single person in the country other than YouTube co-founders Chad Hurley and Steve Chen.