For some time now, political observers have doubted that Dem John Yarmuth would be able to dislodge GOP Rep. Anne Northup, thanks to her ability to bring home Federal money and to the whacky columns alternative publisher Yarmuth has penned. But now CQ Politics says Northup's grip on her seat may be "loosening," and it's just changed its rating of the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican":

Kentucky Rep. Anne M. Northup’s strong fundraising skills, lengthy legislative record — and especially her efforts as an Appropriations Committee member to deliver federal funds home — have enabled her over a five-term career to defy at least a slight Democratic lean in her Louisville-based 3rd District.

Those same factors made her the favorite this year, as Democratic primary voters gambled on alternative newspaper publisher John Yarmuth, whose years of columns have provided campaign fodder for Northup and Republican allies.

But Yarmuth has campaigned undaunted, and the 3rd District is affected by the toxic political climate hurting Republicans nationally.

While polls have varied greatly in this volatile political environment, one released by Survey USA Oct. 19 raised eyebrows in the 3rd: It showed the contenders running neck-and-neck, with 48 percent of respondents saying they supported Yarmuth and 47 percent backing Northup. Yarmuth’s slight lead was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Full CQ analysis here.