Few national observers thought that GOP Rep Jim Ryun had any cause to worry about his seat this year. His Dem challenger, Nancy Boyda, ran against him two year ago, and got soundly defeated by 15 points. Kansas gave President Bush nearly twice as many votes as it gave John Kerry in 2004. And the national Democratic Party is so unpopular in the state that Boyda has openly rejected its help. But in yet another sign that GOP incumbents are no longer safe in even the most conservative states, some local observers are saying that Boyda has a small chance at unseating Ryun in their rematch this November.

Eyebrows were first raised last month when the Boyda campaign released an internal poll that showed the race at a statistical tie. Ryun's campaign shot back that the poll was unscientific, and because there is no independent polling on the race many national observers are still reserving judgment or are sticking to earlier predictions of an easy GOP win.

But, there are several signs that the national GOP is starting to take Boyda's challenge seriously. This week, Ryun is flying in Vice President Cheney for a fundraiser -- despite an existing near three-to-one financial advantage. Ryun has also started airing aggressive attack ads against Boyda on the familiar fronts of supporting a "cut and run" policy in Iraq and "amnesty" for illegal immigrants.

Boyda is also running a much better campaign this time around, and the local press is taking notice. A story in the Lawrence Journal-World on Tuesday noted that “Boyda campaign signs seem to be popping up like wildflowers across the sprawling district that includes west Lawrence.” She is getting high marks for her grassroots campaigning and abilities as a political conversationalist (a recent local editorial contrasted this with "Ryun's inability to deviate from catch phrases or to move beyond pablum."). And she is unapologetically countering Ryun's attacks, saying that he is disconnected with reality on both global warming and Iraq and starkly misrepresenting her position on immigration.

Boyda is also benefitting from a statewide political atmosphere which is far more favorable to Dems than it's been in some time. While Bush won the state in a landslide two years ago with 62%, his approval rating in the state has fluctuated between the 30s and 40s all year and his disapproval ratings have remained over 50%. Meanwhile, popular Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius appears to be skating to reelection (the Cook Political Report recently moved her race from “likely” to “solid Democrat”).

All that said, Boyda still faces formidable obstacles. For Boyda to win she would have to overcome a nearly 3 to 1 financial disadvantage. She's running in a district that has voted overwhelmingly conservative in the past. While still expecting a GOP win, National Journal's political predictor Chuck Todd notes: "This race has popped up as potentially competitive in years past. It's the type of race that in a wave environment could go."