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IN-03: CQ: Souder No Longer Completely Safe

Until now, most of the talk about vulnerable GOP incumbents in Indiana has focused on Reps Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel. But now CQ Politics says another Indiana GOP Rep. isn't completely safe: the Third District's Mark Souder. CQ has changed its rating of the race between Souder and Dem Tom Hayhurst from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored," saying that he "finds himself in his most competitive race in years." More from CQ after the jump.

CQ:

If, as CQPolitics has determined, Souder finds himself in his most competitive race in years, it is not because he has made any particular gaffes.

In the two years since he was re-elected with 69 percent of the vote, Souder has maintained the same conservative profile he has presented throughout his dozen years in the House. It is a record that seems to fit a region that was the home base for Republican Dan Quayle, the former House member and senator who was vice president under President George H.W. Bush.

Rather, Souder faces any chance of an upset because he has drawn a much stronger challenger than typically presented by Democrats in the 3rd, and because of the general political environment that is hurting Republicans at large.

Hayhurst has a good candidate profile for a Democrat in this district. He is a retired physician, an Air Force veteran of the Vietnam War and a 10-year member of the city council in Fort Wayne, by far the dominant community in the 3rd District.

CQPolitics.com also is making the ratings change in part because of Hayhurst’s recent robust fundraising — which contrasts with Souder’s longstanding distaste for raising campaign cash...

Also creating a shadow of doubt are the depressed job approval ratings faced by Republicans nationally and also in Indiana, typically one of the nation’s most consistently Republican-leaning states.

CQ's full analysis here.


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