DCCC Pumps $12 Million Into Races In One Day
Game on: Yesterday the DCCC pumped a staggering $11,859,818.68 into 32 races in 17 states, new filings with the FEC show. Here's what's noteworthy in the Dems' money drop:
* Notably, almost half of the cash — $5,042,707.45 — was spent on three House races in Pennsylvania alone, on ads targeting incumbents Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Mike Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, the DCCC spent another $107,185.28 against incumbent Republican Don Sherwood.
* The DCCC made its first-ever buy — $332,601.56 — for ads targeting GOP candidate Michele Bachmann, who is fighting a challenge from surging Dem Patty Wetterling.
* Some $778,546.77 was pumped into three races in Ohio, targeting GOP Reps. Steve Chabot, Deborah Pryce and Joy Padgett.
* And $649,694.19 went to three races in Indiana, targeting GOP Reps. Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel.
Typo in today's Zogby results posted here: NV-Sen Carter (D), not (R).
October 19, 2006 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Illinois 10th looks like it is in play now with only two point spread. It had been a pretty safe GOP district with Mark Kirk in House leadership. Kirk did not show up when W and Hastert met in Chicago last week.
Dan Seals campaign has been pushing the W/Kirk ties with a website - www.kirknbush.com. The last heard Kirk has $1.5 million, Seals about $700,000.
October 19, 2006 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does this buy seem to be the best use of the money?
I like the Wetterling support; I like the Ohio and Indiana buys. The Pennsylvania buys I'm not so sure about. They're having to expend a lot of resources on the Philly media market. It seems to me that $5M could have been spread around better in lower tier races. More bang for the buck. And the PA races appear to me to be in pretty good shape and capable of drawing their own funding.
Again, this could just be me. I'm not from that area, so maybe that's the best place to be spending the money. I was hoping for more money for Burner in WA state, and perhaps some love for the Idaho insurgency. And the newly emerging races against Pombo and Doolittle in Cali.
Again, I could be convinced that I'm wrong.
October 19, 2006 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope they didn't drop more than a few dollars on the Hostettler (R)/Ellsworth (D) race. Hostettler has all but conceded that race. He's down in cash and he's getting beat up in the polls by a bunch.
October 19, 2006 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not sure they have made the right decision. They are going after the low hanging fruit.
A better strategy would be to go after more GOP leaning races and force the GOP to defend these incumbents. Why not go after Melissa Hart in Pa or Fosello, Sweeney, Kelly, King in NY? These races are all winnable with a little cash help.
October 19, 2006 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Doo a Little Mombo Pombo
Please Don't Forget Cahleefohnia
Dems see 2 House seats they think GOP can lose
Focus is on Pombo and Doolittle as Nov. 7 draws nearer
October 19, 2006 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
I think you've hit on the Second Tier Loan push from Carville Greenberg et al.
The DSCC just sent out an email advertising a 2 for 1 blue light special. 48 hours courtesy of Senators with lotsa cash.
C'mon Rahm..get with the program
October 19, 2006 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
they have to spend lots of money in philly to be competitive with republicans on the airwaves...gop ads are all over philly tv. they're going all out for a sweep of the 3 races here and yes, all the emerging races are exciting but they have to spend money where they know they have the best chances to win. these are all increasingly democratic districts two of which voted for kerry. they are ripe for the picking in a year like this. you do have to spend the money though to avoid drowning in a sea of gop attack ads in the final weeks. think of it this way...if dems win all three philly area seats it is very difficult to imagine them not winning back the house...that's the name of the game and it has to be done realistically...many other races may be tempting but also may be more uphill because of huge gop registration advantages etc.
October 19, 2006 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think one or maybe 2 of those races don't have Philly as their main market so the ad buys are cheaper.
October 19, 2006 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
that said i agree with many of the races you mention as deserving of some more money...there's still time for more ad buys!
October 19, 2006 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
gerlach, fitzpatrick, and weldon all have philly as their main market...though the reading market is also a factor in the gerlach race
October 19, 2006 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's crazy to spend that much in Pennsylvania, one of "the states considered most likely to experience difficulties, according to voting experts who have been tracking the technology and other election changes."
[NY Times, New Laws and Machines May Spell Voting Woes]
That's why I'm donating to House candidates through ActBlue instead of DCCC.
October 19, 2006 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Weldon race is the only one that may well be moving beyond the margin of error, what with his daughter's visit from the feds and all. PA-06 (Gerlach) and PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) are NOT low-hanging fruit; both of those races are very likely to be decided by no more than three percentage points. As for the NY seats, a couple of them are vulnerable, but talk about expensive media markets! Fosella, King and Kelly are all predominantly within NYC, are they not? Half a million on direct mail may well help in one or more of those, but anything more than that would be good money wasted. ID and WY are long shots, but because they are comparatively so cheap, it's hard to imagine the DCCC not throwing a few bucks there, but the bottom line, is the Dems need 15 seats minimum, and taking tight races like those in PA, IN, OH for granted would be a huge mistake. Imagine a November 8th in which the Dem's picked up 13 seats but had "only lost" 20 others by three points or fewer. How many people would give the DCCC credit for making so many races competetive? Um, not I.
October 19, 2006 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
A mere 2-point spread in the Constituent Dynamics poll is stunning, almost literally unbelievable.
Seals (D) did well in a long interview on a local PBS news broadcast last night. Solo interview because GOP incumbent Kirk declined to appear and debate, despite PBS giving him a number of dates to choose from.
Gore and Kerry both won this district. The race should get more attention. And soon. Duckworth, Bean and their GOP opponents could leave little left in the way of media inventory. Roskam and McSweeney frequently piggy-back with RNC ads. A candidate 30 immediately followed by one from RNC.
October 19, 2006 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is entirely possible for the Democrats to win in CD 3, where Dan Lungren is struggling now, and Bill Durston is proving to be an excellent candidate. This district was written off two years ago when Lungren won against a Democrat who got zero support from the party, but still had a decent showing, all things considered. Since then Lungren has shown himself to be a total Bush toady, spending many a "town hall" meeting promoting the destruction of the Social Security program. He hasn't been in office in this district long enough to become as corrupt as Doolittle and Pombo, but that doesn't mean he is isn't corrupt - it is only a matter of degree. Apparently the DCCC is again conceding that district anyway.
Hoppy in Sacramento
October 20, 2006 12:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Could it be that the House Dems wouldn't mind terribly if some of the GOP's marquee crazies, like Sali in Idaho, got elected?
October 20, 2006 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
.
I've been waving my arms and yelling for more attention over here in the IL-10th for a couple of weeks now. Seems the 10th is overshadowed by the IL-06 and IL-08 races nearby.
For my money -- and it *is* my money -- I think Dan Seals is worth supporting. So I haven't given any money to the DCCC this cycle. Instead, I have been directly contributing to Seals (mostly) and a couple of other campaigns. I did give money to Al Franken's Midwest Values PAC, too.
I'm not strongly negative toward the DCCC, but I am frustrated by some of their decisions. They're spending several million on IL-06 to get their new darling, Tammy Duckworth, elected (steamrolling over progressive Christine Cegelis -- a potential winner in her own right -- in a very close primary). But they're taking a pass on other winnable districts, like the 10th. That's a little hard to swallow. Seems to me that every seat the Dems can gain counts equally. But to the DCCC, some are more equal than others, I guess.
Okay, I'll get off my soapbox now. Go, Dan, go! Maybe I'll see you guys out canvassing this weekend.
-- ARG
October 21, 2006 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the clarification, that must be where the confusion was for me.
Being 800 miles away will do that to you. >_
October 21, 2006 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink