So it looks as if the combination of GOP Rep. Chris Shays' recent gaffes and antiwar Dem Diane Farrell's hard push on Iraq has turned this race into an absolute dead heat. A new poll just out this morning from the Hartford Courant shows the race deadlocked at 43% apiece. That's a two point gain for Farrell and a three point drop for Shays from a poll in early October which found Shays leading 46%-41%. A key footnote: "The new poll shows unaffiliated voters shifting toward Farrell," the Courant says. "In three weeks, she has erased a 16-point deficit to pull almost even with the moderate Shays in unaffiliated support, 38 percent to 39 percent."