CQ's Final Analysis: Big Dem Gains Likely, But...
Here at Election Central we've tried to keep you up to date on every single ratings change made throughout the cycle by CQ Politics. And now, CQ has released its final macro-report on all the races. Key conclusion: "The Republicans are now ahead at least marginally in only 207 races, meaning that even if they hold on to all of those (which won’t happen) they must win 11 of the 18 tossups to retain power." But CQ isn't prepared to guarantee a Dem victory. The big unknown, for CQ, is this: Which will prove stronger — the Dem wave, i.e. the electorate's hunger for change, or the GOP bulwark, i.e. institutional advantages born of redistricting and superior turnout operations? It's "the clash of a supposedly immovable object and reputably irresistible force," CQ says. More from CQ's overview here.
Here's CQ's final tally of race ratings:
House:
No Clear Favorite: 18
Lean Republican: 22
Lean Democratic: 11
Republican Favored: 25
Democrat Favored: 12
CQ:
The bottom line is that the Republicans are now ahead at least marginally in only 207 races, meaning that even if they hold on to all of those (which won’t happen) they must win 11 of the 18 tossups to retain power. The Democrats are now ahead in 210 races — nine more than the number of seats they have now — so if they hold all those leads they will need to win just eight of the tossups to gain control.
CQ broke its House analysis into four regions: Northeast, South, Midwest and West.
Senate:
No Clear Favorite: 3
Leans Republican: 1
Leans Democratic: 7
Republican Favored: 1
Democrat Favored: 4
CQ:
With 10 days to go, four GOP incumbents are now underdogs for re-election: Conrad Burns of Montana, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island. The Democratic bids in Missouri against Jim Talent and in Tennessee for the seat that Majority Leader Bill Frist is vacating are absolutely too close to call, while the party still has a clear shot at George Allen in Virginia. So if they win two out of three — and if they protect all their own seats, particularly that of New Jersey’s Robert Menendez, who’s also in a tossup — the Democrats should win the Senate. (They need 51 to claim a majority, but the Republicans need only 50, because for the next two years they can always count on the tie-breaking support of Vice President Dick Cheney.)
Senate analysis here.
Ford will likely win in TENN. The GOP miscalculated the two forces of fear and pride. Pride can become a stronger reaction than fear in much of the New South if people feel the state population is being insulted. And many in the South felt insulted by the ad and concerned that it reflected badly on the state. Unless there is some surprise out there, Ford will likely win with a narrow victory in large part due to the suburban vote. And don't discount the concern by some in TN business circles that national corporate interest in conventions in the state might slow if a GOP win can be shown to have been in part the result of those racist ads.
October 30, 2006 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I certainly hope you're right, AG, but I don't think you are. I have to assume that unapologetic appeals to bigotry will work in the South in elections that are polling close. I'll go with that until I'm shown otherwise. I guess I'm showing my own bigotry here to a certain extent, but so be it.
If Ford and Webb win, I will have been wrong, and I'll be glad of it.
October 30, 2006 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
So it's a tossup between...
There, in a nutshell (pardon the cliché) one has the primary flaw in contemporary American democracy...more primary, MHO, than the injection of mountains of cash into the electoral process... the ability to create "bulwarks". I think it a bit misleading to conflate "superior turnout operations" with "institutional advantages born of redistricting". If democratic/progressive turnout operations are inferior the mirror is the place to look for the reason (excluding, as always, dirty tricks like phone jamming operations in 2004). Three cheers for the fifty-state strategy. It will pay off in the long run.
But the ability to so shape electoral districts to favor one party is a blot going back to the (not-so) venerable Eldridge Gerry. Certain states have addressed this issue better than others. Until both major parties recognize that it is in their long term advantage to neutralize the drawing of district lines, and until the electorate realizes that neutral districts are to its long-term advantage as well, bulwarks will threaten to defeat the public will.
aMike
October 30, 2006 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't there at least a possibility that a low-turnout (esp if voters are expecting a Dem victory, without necessarily wanting to stand in line and vote for it...) will let the GOP scrape in? This is my biggest fear now: swinging voters need a constant barrage of reasons to feel passionate about kicking the bums out. Especially with such a dodgy electoral machinery. Will people wait for hours in line to vote out a congressperson they've barely heard of? (I hope so! And it also seems possible GOP voters will be feeling more tepid than usual!)
October 30, 2006 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
John Zogby and Scott Rasmussen said today on the Hannity radio show (Hannity was off interviewing the president) that they'll both be releasing polls tomorrow showing Webb ahead. Allen has been elected statewide twice, so I'm still pessimistic about this one, but it's good to see that releasing the novel passages has had no effect, or possibly even backfired.
October 30, 2006 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink