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CQ Politics: "Donkey Stampede" Coming

CQ Politics has taken a look at all its ratings changes in the past week and concuded that a "Donkey stampede" is in the making:

The trend against the GOP is illustrated in changes that CQPolitics.com made to its ratings last week (Oct. 9-13). Congressional Quarterly’s free elections Web site altered its forecasts on one Senate race and 17 House races — and in all but one case, the analysis showed the Democratic candidate gaining ground over his or her Republican opponent...

In the House, the Republicans’ projected advantage, which heading into October still exceeded the majority point of 218 seats, has shrunk to 209 — just one seat more than the 208 projected to the Democrats. And all of the 18 seats currently rated as No Clear Favorite are currently held by Republicans.

CQ added that "more ratings changes are expected over the coming days." Oops, here's one already, albeit in a governor's race: CQ has just changed its rating of the Colorado gubernatorial race between GOP candidate Bob Beauprez and Dem Bill Ritter from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic."

To read Election Central's overview of all ratings changes since Foleygate broke, just click here.


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It's important to understand that CQ's split materially overstates the GOP's strength. CQ is traditionally very reluctant to rate an incumbent anything worse than "toss-up" unless there's a toxic scandal (Foley, FL-22) or an overwhelming skew in the poll numbers (Santorum).

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