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Chuck Todd: Top Ten GOP-Held Seats All But Goners

The National Journal's Chuck Todd has updated his House Rankings. His overview finds that the top 10 seats held by the GOP are basically lost causes, all but certain to get swept away. Here they are:

1) AZ-08 - Open Seat (R) 2) TX-22 - Open Seat (R) 3) IN-08 - John Hostettler (R) 4) PA-10 - Don Sherwood (R) 5) PA-07 - Curt Weldon (R) 6) OH-18 - Open Seat (R) 7) FL-16 - Open Seat (R) 8) CO-07 - Open Seat (R) 9) IN-02 - Chris Chocola (R) 10) NC-11 - Charles Taylor (R)

Dems would only need five more seats to take the House. Guess how many GOP-held seats beyond the above 10 are seriously in play: Twenty-five. Todd's full rankings here. Meanwhile, the latest ratings are out from Rothenberg Political Report. House: "Democratic gain of 18-28 seats, with the caveat that larger gains surely are possible." Senate: "Democratic gains of 4-7 seats."


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The House will gain a Dem majority if these polls are accurate. The question is how will the senate go? TN, MO, VA are essentially tied. Which way will they swing? Will Lamont squeak by Joementum? The senate races are high wire theater!

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Why oh why isn't Sensenbrenner and Schmidt on the Endangered Species list?

I can't wait to see how Sensebrenner acts when the Dems take control and he no longer has control of the gavel or the light switches. It will be worth it to have him in for another 2 years in the subservient role... anyone want to take odds on when he has a stroke because he is no longer the bully?

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The latest available poll by Constituent Dynamics also had NY-25 being led by 8 points by challenger (D)Dan Maffei over (R)James Walsh. That poll was from Oct 15-16. This is a significant seat because it has been held by Walsh for a long time and the district covers a significant piece of upstate NY. The district in question is difficult to judge so the 8 points may not mean much. The important thing about this seat is the possible defeat of an 18 year republican incumbent. No matter which party controls the House that seniority is a big deal.

thepeoplechoose

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Watch out for Republican dirty tricks, voter suppression tactics, Diebold rigging, negative ads, and tons of money in the last week and a half.

Tom

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Re: Will Lamont squeak by Joementum?

Since Libermann swears that he will caucus with the Democrats still, it really will not matter who wins in CT as far as control of the Senate goes.

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How refreshingly naive. JL is practically a lock to switch, either directly or by resigning to take a Cabinet post (thereby handing the seat to a GOPer to be appointed by CT's Republican governor).

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I find this most improbable...he had a run at a cabinet slot prior to declaring his re-election intentions...he then endured a primary that significantly altered his image and has bounced back, with significant Republican assistance, to be the odds-on favorite to win. And you suggest that he'd abandon a six year stint as Senator to get on board the political equivalent of the Titanic? I'm more inclined to think he'll change his stripes and, if there's a 50-50 split in the Senate, caucus with the Republicans to give them control and serve crow to his former Democratic colleagues...

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I am optimistic, overall, and find promising omens in the stock market recovering, the Washington Post describing Democratic candidates as better-looking (with above-average children), and now there is good news on the science front.

Nope, the environmental news is still bad, but NASA's confidence in shuttle damage assessment and repair while in orbit has them saying they are planning a repair mission for the Hubble Space Telescope. Since this jewel is a crowning achievement of the human race, expanding our knowledge of the Universe by an amount far greater than Galileo's first use of a telescope, it speaks well of our commitment to understanding.

Anybody notice how wooly-bear caterpillars are doing? Is the long winter of our discontent coming to an end?

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A 50-50 tie would not be a tie since Cheney would be voting with the GOP.

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If there is a 50-50 split, the Senate will go Republican because of Cheney's tie-breaking vote.

I tend to think that Joe, who believes himself the savior of the Democratic Party, will stay Dem. After all, in two years the Dems are certain to take control of the Senate if they don't do so now. If he's shown anything, its that the survival of Joe as a political entity is his top priority. Switch parties now and he'll be lucky to get any committee assignments at all.

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I believe Cheney only votes on legislation. Therefore a 50-50 tie results in a split leadership.

Tom

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Sorry, that's just wrong. The Vice President, as president of the Senate, customarily votes only to break tie votes. That includes the vote to form the leadership, meaning that 50-50 is in fact a GOP "majority".

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Joe-nertia thinks he's right! About everything. So why would he switch? The only way he'd switch is if the Republicans offered him more juicy committee assignments, but the Dems, have already folded their tents and the leadership has concluded that Lamont is a lost cause. That's why Hillary and Bill and Edwards, et. al aren't out there campaigning with him. They've written him off and are now preparing to welcome back Joe with open arms!

"Joe! So good to see you! Always knew you'd win! Nasty business with those ignorant primary voters but you sure showed them! Glad to have you back! Committee Chairmanship? No problem. What would you like?"

Makes me want to puke.

But, I doubt Joe will switch. He'd rather make his democratic collegues eat crow and continue to piss on them from inside the tent.

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Seems likely that the best we can hope for is either 51 or 50 senators- in either case
including Joe. Who will owe us nothing.

Running Lamont was an indulgence.

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You are correct. Article 1, section 3 of the Constitution reads, "The Vice President of the United States, shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote [sic], unless they be equally divided." There could be two parties or five parties in the Senate it makes no difference. Whenever there is a 50-50 vote on any issue, the Vice President can cast a tie breaking vote. Otherwise he has no vote and only presides over the Chamber.

Hmm...Cheney might have to work everyday instead of his usual once a week trip up to the Hill.

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I think you mean 51-49 would be the best we could expect and I agree.

"Running Lamont was an indulgence" - yes

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Yes, shame on us for "indulging" our desire to have a real Democrat as Connecticut's junior senator.

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It depends on the trade off. Our best realistic hope for this election was that Pat Leahy might head judiciary i.e. Bush could be stopped from stacking the judiciary with brilliant , hyper-conservative appeals court or even supreme court judges who will afflict our children and their children .

There wasn't ever any chance of a sufficient majority to e.g. force an Iraq withdrawal . The best we could hope for was to defend our legal system. Which required 51 senators who would vote to make Reid majority leader.

Before Lamont's run Joe could have been counted on for one of those votes and OBTW it would have been a low cost campaign. Now we have poured $ into winning the primary and struggling unsuccessfully in the general.

Result: Joe is going to win anyway and he isn't going to be the 51st vote. We blew it.

Furthermore I wonder if this was ever as much as we claimed about policy . I was really turned off by our attacks on Joe's religiosity . As an atheist I believe strongly in not attacking people for their beliefs and that seemed to be part of what was going on in that 'let's get rid of Holy Joe' movement. Compare with the absolute lack of criticism of Maria Cantwell who votes with the Republicans more often than Joe. Look it up.

BTW I was making these same arguments in this space prior to the primary.

My hope is that behind the scenes Reid and Schumer are going whatever can be done to cauterize this self inflicted wound.

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I'm no fan of Cantwell's but I don't remember ever seeing her making out with war criminals on the floor of Congress. But your point is worth noting. If Lieberman manages to get back in and deigns to remain a Democrat and if Ford and Brown both win, Bush will have 14 Democratic senators he can depend on to support torture, oppose habeas corpus and, I fear, approve Scalitoish wingnuts for the Supreme Court. That's why I'm not expecting much from a "Democratic" majority in the Senate and also why I think Lamont's offensive, even if it fails, was well worth supporting. If it accomplished nothing else, it at least slowed the Party's slide to the right.

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During the year and a half when Leahy controlled Judiciary it served as a firewall preventing nominations from reaching the floor. Even with those democratic senators who,sadly , will vote as you describe I think there's a good chance that if Leahy can keep the right membership of his committee it can hold the fort. He'll get some support from Spector.

I understand there's a nuts and bolts argument for providing some red meat
for the democratic left. They can't be expected to support a party that stonewalls them. And I in fact share almost every one of its positions( needless to say I marched against the war) but the destruction of our legal principles -and the undermining of our national morality which that represents- is so anathema (sorry I can't come up with a less pretentious word at this time in the morning ) to me that I cringe at the idea they we may have fumbled on the two yard line.

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As I recall the protocol, at the end of a Senate vote the Clerk announces the vote results let's say 50-50. The written results are then presented to Cheney who is presiding and at that point he states that since they are equally divided he exercises his right and casts his vote for _______.

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If you want pure orthodoxy with all members and candidates following the same party line, the Democrats are not your party. Senate Democrats go from Ted Kennedy (MA) to Ben Nelson (NE) - they reflect their constituencies. If you want strong party discipline and whips keeping members in line, you'd be more comfortable in the British political system. Even Republicans in this election cycle have had to back away from their normal rigidity, though the ideologues must be choking at having to support Chaffee and Shays.

Lieberman has always been out of sync on some issues, but this year was not the year to push him out. No matter how many mea culpas the Democratic leadership does for his vote, he's now beholden to big Republican money for his re-election. He has a lot of favors to repay.

I share your concern flavius, with holding the line on the confirmation of extremist candidates for the judiciary. These are lifetime appointments of people that will outlive this and future administrations. Having a firm majority with Leahy in the key post of Judiciary Chair is critical. I don't trust Specter's ability to be able to filter out the extremists, because at the end of the day he's a Republican.

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in either case including Joe. Who will owe us nothing.  Running Lamont was an indulgence.

That is the most ludicrous statement imaginable. Your logic absolutely floors me.

From your point of view, Lieberman is an adequate Democrat, so this should be a no-lose situation for you.

The only way it could go bad from your point of view is if Lieberman wins and then bolts. And for that, if it happens, you'll blame ... Lamont???? Don't you and the rest of the Lieberman apologists hold Joe responsible for ANY of his own actions?

If Joe wins and bolts, wouldn't this prove what Lamont's supporters have been saying all along?

And as far as "owing us nothing" goes, just how much do you think has he given "us" these last four years? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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When Hitler invaded Russia making it willy-nilly Britain's ally Churchill is supposed to have said "If the devil himself decided to join us , I'd manage to work a favorable reference to hell into my next question time".

If the expected outcome had been either 45 dem votes or 55 I would have had absolutely no criticism of the Lamont caper. Given that the expected outcome was at best 50 or 51 dem votes including Joe , running Lamont
was an indulgence.

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