Congressional Quarterly has just downgraded the race between GOP incumbent Richard Pombo and Dem challenger Jerry McNerney from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican":

[W]hile the NRCC has, according to Federal Election Commission reports, paid for two internal polls in the district to gauge voter preferences in the 11th District, the committee has not released any results.

Democrats, on the other hand, have not hesitated to publicize two “own” polls that purport to show a tossup race. A survey conducted by the Democratic firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner showed McNerney actually leading by 48 percent to 46 percent. A poll by Lake Research, another Democratic firm, showed Pombo with a statistically insignificant lead of 41 percent to 40 percent.

CQ's full analysis here.