From a piece just posted at the New York Times wrapping up the anxiety in top GOP circles about what's going to happen on Tuesday:

Joe Gaylord, who was the political lieutenant to Newt Gingrich when he led the Republican takeover of the House in 1994, said that based on polling he had seen in recent weeks, he expected his party to lose 25 seats to 30 seats on Tuesday. That general assessment was repeatedly echoed in interviews with Republicans close to the White House and the Republican National Committee.

“It’s very grim,” Mr. Gaylord said. “Things are dreadful out there.”

Elsewhere in Adam Nagourney's piece, we learn that GOP party leaders are expecting to lose seats held by Reps. Curt Weldon, Chris Chocola and John Hostettler, as well as Senators Mike DeWine and Rick Santorum, and probably those of Senators Lincoln Chafee and Conrad Burns. The piece also notes that Republicans see this election as the first major test of the built-in advantages the GOP's tried to wire for itself with gerrymandering in recent years. If Dems win a majority of the national vote without winning one or both Houses on Tuesday, the rigged national system will be the reason why. Read the whole thing here.

Wall to wall coverage of the non-story that was John Kerry's botched Iraq joke has done nothing to help the GOP or damage Dems, according to a new poll just out this morning from Newsweek. The poll finds that Dems lead the GOP in the generic Congressional matchup by 16 points, 54%-38%, a spread that's consistent with or larger than most recent polls. It also finds that a majority -- 53% -- want Dems to win control of either one or both Houses. President Bush's approval rating is stuck at 35%, and independents support Dems nearly 2-1, 51%-26%. More here.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to an awfully special Midterm Roundup: Saturday Night Fever Edition! … except not at night... unless you're reading this at night. Regardless, this edition of the Roundup is devoted entirely to everybody’s favorite topic ever: voter disenfranchisement!!! You’re obviously very excited, so let’s get right to it.

Though the district held by GOP Rep. John Doolittle is one of the most reliably Republican enclaves in the state, the combination of the Jack Abramoff scandal and Dem foe Charlie Brown's spirited campaigning has turned the race into "one of the year’s surprise hotly contested races," according to CQ Politics. CQ has just changed its rating of the race between Doolittle and Dem challenger Charlie Brown from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." The change reflects the fact that that this year Dems have been able to compete seriously in deep red districts by combining attacks on the GOP culture of corruption with hard-hitting counterattacks on national security issues -- something Brown is doing by aggressively highlighting his own military background. More from CQ after the jump.

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In the wake of GOP Rep. John Sweeney's refusal to release documents surrounding charges of domestic violence in his home, the upstate Post-Star newspaper has just withdrawn its endorsement of Sweeney: "We urge the congressman to release the police documentation he says will unveil the truth about what really happened at his house that night," the paper says. "Given this situation and Congressman Sweeney's unacceptable response to it, we can no longer stand behind our earlier endorsement of his candidacy." Full withdrawn endorsement after the jump.

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The new SurveyUSA poll shows a tied race between Ben Cardin and Michael Steele. The key: black voters. Steele has made inroads with them, and if he wins one-third of the blacks, he could just pull off a win. Steele's charismatic approach has helped him make big inroads in this blue state, and if it were any other year he'd be well on his way to victory.

This has gotten surprisingly little attention. From the New Haven Independent:

A group of New Haven Latino clergy known for virulently opposing gay rights measures threw their support behind U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman's reelection campaign Thursday in a speech that focused on family values and faith. The group said the senator’s opposition to gay marriage contributed to their endorsing him: "We will not support a candidate that will go against the values of the traditional family as we know it and the Bible teaches us."

This endorsement is being touted by the Lieberman campaign on its blog. More on this after the jump.

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The National Journal's Chuck Todd has just updated his House rankings. He thinks Dems will either take the House by just a few seats or, if not, by an enormous landslide:

We're not comfortable giving a range anymore. We believe it's an either/or situation. Either the Democrats narrowly win the House with 16 to 18 seats or they win a 30 to 35-plus landslide. We can't picture them winning 25 seats, because if they take Nos. 24 and 25 on our list, they should also take the next five to 10 below that.

Biggest changes? AZ-05 jumping from 33rd to 20th most competetive race and PA-04 from 43rd to 30th most competitive. Check the rest out here.

This one's a must-see: A new ad is running on local stations in Montana attacking Dem Jon Tester as a member of the "Brokebank Democrats." And just in case you missed the subtle implications of this tag, the ad continues: "They just can't fight their nature." The ad displays the opening credits to a mock movie version of "Brokebank Democrats," telling us that the flick stars "Jon `the taxer' Tester" and warns of higher taxes should "Brokebank Democrats" take over. The ad was paid for by the Free Enterprise Fund, which incidentally also produced this equally subtle ad recently "spoofing" Italian Americans. FEC filings show the FEF is bankrolled almost entirely by Swift Boat Vets funder and reclusive mogul Bob Perry. Don't miss it -- watch it here.

Update: We just checked in with FEF spokesperson Todd Schorle, and he told us that the "nature" the ad was referring to in "Brokebank Democrats" was Dems' tax-hiking proclivities: "They can’t help their nature of being high taxers," Schorle says.

The NRCC has come up with a novel way of attacking Dem Tammy Duckworth on immigration: It's sent out a new mailing packed in a cardboard box, of all things, and the box is labeled, "Welcome to America Kit!" Inside this "kit," which you're supposed to think is for immigrants, is another mailing designed as if it were intended as an offer to illegals. It says: "Enter America illegally and get...Social Security benefits!" There is also a picture of Duckworth, which is obviously meant to suggest that she supports the "offers" to illegals on the mailing. She doesn't, however: Duckworth actually backs GOP Senator John McCain's immigration approach, which doesn't include benefits for illegals. View the box and its contents here.

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It looks as if the GOP's post-Sept. 11 love affair with New York is officially over: The NRCC's latest ad blasting Dem Gary Trauner is attacking him for...being from New York City. As some swing jazz plays in the background, the ad pans across NYC streets and shows an image of Trauner — who's closing fast on GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin in this very red state — in an "I love New York" shirt. The narrator says: "New Yorkers march to a different drummer. Maybe that's why Gary Trauner is so out of step with Wyoming values. He's from New York. Not Wyoming...He might be right for New York. But he's dead wrong for Wyoming." Trauner has lived in Wyoming for over 15 years. Watch it here.

Update: In response to readers' suspicions that this ad is subtly anti-Semitic, Election Central called up Trauner campaign manager Linda Stoval for comment. "When I talked to Helen Kennedy from the New York Daily News, she asked me if I thought that was code," Stoval said. "And honestly, I did not know what she was talking about." Stoval told EC she knows of no anti-Semitic campaigning on Cubin's part — indeed, she doubts that many people even know Trauner is Jewish — and furthermore doesn't think such an attack would have any pull in Wyoming.

With only a few days until election day, big infusions of cash are flooding into critical home-stretch activities like phone-banking, mailings, and last-minute polling to determine where the last bursts of cash for TV ads should be spent, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. The NRCC dropped $647,842.11 on mailings and phone banks in 40 races in 21 states — plus five polls conducted by the Tarrance Group for seats in California, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio, a possible indication of last-minute triage. The DCCC dumped $914,066.19 on 19 races in 15 states, much of it for mailings and phone-banking. More updates on the parties' spending coming.

A few days ago, a story broke out of Washington state saying that a school bus driver got fired by a local school board last June for giving the finger to President Bush. The story's set off a lot of buzz in Washington political circles, because of an unanswered question at the center of the tale: Did Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA), who was with Bush during the incident, engineer the driver's firing behind the scenes as retribution for insulting the President? His spokesman has been saying that he didn't. But now Reichert -- who's fending off a tougher-than-expected challenge from Dem Darcy Burner -- has been caught on tape boasting to an audience of Republicans that, yes, he did engineer the driver's firing as retribution for the insult to Bush.

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CQ Politics and the Cook Political Report both updated their ratings last night. Here are the latest changes:

CQ

AZ-01: "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." AZ-05: "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." CT-05: "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Cook

GA-12: "Lean Democratic" to "Toss Up." NY-19: "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." NY-20: "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up." PA-04: "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up." WA-08: "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican."

A curious noise emanates from the great Southwest (probably just the cat), the conservative blogosphere is quite sure it’s never heard of this Ted Haggard fellow, and THE BIG 3 is back to a round number! The Midterm Roundup has run out of ideas for the final sentence of its intro and there’s still 4 mornings left. Suggestions appreciated!

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As Election Day fast approaches vulnerable Republican incumbents have picked up some valuable endorsements, from their wives. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the wives of Curt Weldon, Don Sherwood, and Rick Santorum have all cut ads or penned handwritten letters touting the softer side of their scandal plagued husbands. In one ad Mary Weldon opines that she’s been “forced to speak out” about the “endless, unfounded attacks on Curt and our family.” In a particularly maudlin moment, Karen Santorum appears on the verge of tears as she tells us how it’s “extremely hard, emotionally” to hear attacks on her husband and family, and criticizes Bob Casey for “going after my family.” In Ohio, Mike DeWine’s wife Fran also stars in a new ad highlighting their 39 year marriage and family life. After weeks of running scorched earth attack ads, and still trailing in the polls, these men seem to think that soft and warm might work where slash and burn has failed.

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John McCain appears to be as serious as ever about making nice with the conservative base. He's now starring in not one, but two ads backing Proposition 107, which would not only amend the state constitution to bar same-sex marriage of all kinds permanently, but also prohibiting cities, towns, and universities from providing benefits to unmarried domestic partners. The first of the ads -- which are paid for by the evangelical-backed group Protect Marriage Arizona -- is below; the second is after the jump.

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Now this must feel like a slap in the face: CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin and Dem Gary Trauner from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite," suggesting the possibility of a huge upset. CQ, in a wry reference to the recent incident where Cubin suggested she wanted to "slap" a wheelchair victim, notes wryly that rising public doubts about Cubin in this premiere GOP district stem less from ideology and more from her personality's "rough edge." More from CQ after the jump.

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Political wire has advance excerpts of Stuart Rothenberg's latest ratings, and Rothenberg is predicting a wholesale routing of the GOP. He says Dems will win the Senate: "We believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate." And the House by an overwhelming margin: "We believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible." More excerpts from Rothenberg after the jump.

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Two new ads from the DSCC: The first blasts Virginia Senator George Allen on what's become the campaign's central issue — Allen's own personal character. The second — an assault on Arizona Senator Jon Kyl — blisters him for voting in lockstep with President Bush. The latter ad is an interesting sign of just how much the southwestern — and national — political climate has changed: Who would have thought just six months ago that Arizona would be in play, or even that it would be hospitable territory for such an attack, given that it voted twice for the president? Watch them below:

One of the few deciding issues in the race between GOPer Peter Roskam and Dem candidate Tammy Duckworth -- a race which is too close to call -- has been Social Security. Roskam and the GOP have been hammering Duckworth relentlessly on the issue. The attacks have been full of distortions -- okay, outright lies. Case in point: Roskam's latest ad. Many of you won't be surprised by Roskam's mendacity, because you already know Roskam is one of TPM's top-flight Social Security "bamboozlers" (rundown on that here). Watch it:

Despite Roskam's dodgy past support of phase-out schemes, the ad claims Roskam is the candidate who would "protect" Social Security. The ad continues: "Tammy Duckworth supports cuts in Social Security benefits. She’d even raise the retirement age and Social Security taxes. But she would give our Social Security to illegal aliens." All three assertions are false.

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Over at The Daily Politics, Ben Smith is reporting that the National Republican Congressional Committee was having private discussions over how to do "damage control" on Foleygate earlier than suspected:

Two senior aides to National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds participated in “damage control” conference calls concerning correspondence between Congressman Mark Foley and a former congressional page -- two days before the scandal became public, and earlier than previously reported.

Get ready for a political ad bonanza! Election Central has a whole bunch of new political ads here for your viewing pleasure — we have a dialogue between Jon Tester and Conrad Burns; Ned Lamont casting himself as Jimmy Stewart in his hopes to go to Washington; a fun ad from Joe Lieberman, and a new attack ad from Rick Santorum. Check them all out here, after the jump.

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National GOP House strategists are spending big money in Pennsylvania in a last ditch effort to hang on to its imperiled House seats there, new FEC filings show. The NRCC yesterday sank $6,310,539.47 into 42 races in 22 states — over a third of which went into Pennsylvania. The money drop also suggests that reports that the NRCC is scaling back ads in Pennsylvania Rep. Curt Weldon's race may have been premature: the NRCC pumped nearly $650,000 into negative ads against his opponent, Dem Joe Sestak, the filings show. Taken together the expenditures provide an interesting road map to what GOP strategists are thinking at the moment — view some highlights of their spending after the jump.

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The campaign of sinking GOP Rep. John Hostettler has thus far been getting stranger by the day -- and now he may have just lobbed his most lurid charge of all: He warned the other day that electing Dems could bring another 9/11. Today's Evansville Courier Press reports that Hostettler made the claim at a rally of conservative faithful on Nov. 1. The Congressman told the crowd that a Dem takeover of the House would lead to amnesty for illegal immigrants. Then he added: "Some would move about our country freely in order to be here when they got that order from abroad to do us ill in the United States of America just like those did on Sept. 11, 2001." In other words, a vote for Dems may be a vote for another 9/11.

Question: When is it okay to run a political ad with images of the flag-draped coffins of soldiers? Answer: When you're a Republican. Back in July, the National Republican Congressional Committee held a press conference to denounce its Dem counterpart, the DCCC, for running a web ad showing such coffin imagery. Many other senior Republicans, including House majority leader John Boehner, condemned the ad, and it was a raging controversy for days until the DCCC pulled it. But guess what: Now there are not one, but two Republican ads which show an image of flag-draped coffins -- and one of them has been paid for by, yep, the NRCC. More after the jump.

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Larry Sabato's latest predictions are in, and they're extraordinary. He's predicting a Dem pickup of 23-30 House seats, and five or six in the Senate. But here's what may be the most interesting part: Sabato thinks it's possible that the GOP may not take a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship from Dems. In other words, he thinks a complete shutout of the GOP may be in the offing. More from Sabato after the jump.

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In a sign that the massive amounts of cash being pumped by national GOP strategists into Bob Ney's old district aren't overcoming the lingering voter distaste with Ney's corruption scandal, CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between Dem Zack Space and Ney's handpicked successor, Joy Padgett, from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":

It appears that this significant outlay by the GOP’s House campaign committee did not hinder Space’s momentum, even though he likely would be a longshot candidate were it not for the scandal-driven downfall of the long-popular Ney.

The largely rural eastern Ohio 18th, which includes small cities such as Zanesville and Chillicothe, has a conservative lean...Ney in 2002 didn’t even draw a Democratic opponent, and in 2004 defeated a little-known Democrat with 66 percent to win a sixth House term.

But the political environment in Ohio now is far different today than it was two years ago....At a time when most voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and with a Congress that the GOP controls, Ohio Republicans’ problems are redoubled by numerous ethics controversies involving not just Ney, but outgoing GOP Gov. Bob Taft and several of his aides and political associates.

CQ's full analysis here.

A new batch of polls from Reuters/Zogby finds that Dems -- who need to win six Senate seats to take control of the chamber -- are leading in, yes, six races for GOP-held Senate races, though in two cases the lead is statistically insignificant:

RI: Whitehouse (D) 53%, Chafee (R) 39% PA: Casey (D) 48%, Santorum (R) 40% OH: Brown (D) 49%, DeWine (R) 40% MO: McCaskill (D) 46%, Talent (R) 43% VA: Webb (D) 45%, Allen (R) 44% MT: Tester (D) 47%, Burns (R) 46%

The poll also finds that in Tennessee, GOP candidate Bob Corker has a 10-point lead over Dem Harold Ford, Jr. Pollster John Zogby comments: "The Democrats have a real shot at the Senate now, and six weeks ago you probably could not have said that. But it's still a jump ball, and there has been volatility both ways."

Conrad Burns finally launches the secret devastating attack on Jon Tester he has been saving up all year, Katherine Harris fades away and radiates, and breaking news: the Virginia Senate race is starting to get a little wild. The Midterm Roundup cannot tell you how many days are remaining until Election Day as it has lost the ability to compute numbers.

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In the wake of polls showing Dem Jim Webb edging ahead of GOP Senator George Allen, political analysts are beginning to paint a grim picture of his reelection chances. CQ Politics has just downgraded the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." Says CQ: "Even though other Republican senators are as or more vulnerable than Allen, it can be argued than none has fallen further over the course of this year." Robert Novak, meanwhile, is even tougher: He's just shifted his rating of the race from "Leans GOP" to "Leans Dem," saying that Allen "is on the verge of losing his Senate seat." Novak labels Allen's effort a "circus campaign," and concludes ominously, "it is much easier to dump an incumbent in a circus campaign than it is in a serious campaign."

New statement from John Kerry:

As a combat veteran, I want to make it clear to anyone in uniform and to their loved ones: my poorly stated joke at a rally was not about, and never intended to refer to any troop.

I sincerely regret that my words were misinterpreted to wrongly imply anything negative about those in uniform, and I personally apologize to any service member, family member, or American who was offended.

It is clear the Republican Party would rather talk about anything but their failed security policy. I don't want my verbal slip to be a diversion from the real issues. I will continue to fight for a change of course to provide real security for our country, and a winning strategy for our troops.

Connecticut's three Democratic House challengers received good news from state officials today when they reported that 82 thousand new voters have registered in the state since May, including more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans. About 31 thousand new Democrats, 12 thousand new GOPpers and 39 thousand new independents brought the total number of registered voters in Connecticut to a record 1.9 million. The AP quotes a UCONN professor of public policy who says the implications are “huge”: “I think the new registrants, given the Democratic advantage, can serve to put the Democrats over the top in any one of the races given how close they are."

Recent polling has each of the three Connecticut House races extremely close, with the Democrats having a slight edge in at least two of the three races going into the final week.

Robert Novak's latest analysis is just in, and he predicts the Dems will take the House with a pick-up of 20 seats while falling just short of the Senate with only five of the six needed pick-ups. His ratings changes:

Senate: VA-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem OH-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem WA-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem MI-Sen: Likely Dem to Lean Dem

House:
NM-01: Likely Dem to Lean Dem
CA-11: Likely GOP to Lean GOP
KY-03: Lean GOP to Likely GOP
PA-04: Lean GOP to Likely GOP
NY-26: Lean Dem to Lean GOP
CT-05: Lean GOP to Lean Dem
FL-16: Lean Dem to Lean GOP
FL-13: Lean GOP to Lean Dem
IN-02: Likely Dem to Lean Dem
NV-03: Lean Dem to Lean GOP
OH-18: Lean GOP to Likely Dem
MI-07: Safe GOP to Lean GOP
NE-03: Safe GOP to Lean GOP
GA-12: Lean Dem to Lean GOP

"Going into the last week of the campaign, there is no sign of a Democratic wave or a Republican wave," Novak concludes. "It still looks like a good day for Democrats looming on November 7, but not necessarily a catastrophe for Republicans." Novak's full analysis here.

Let's stipulate one thing about this campaign: When it comes to creative flyers, no race has topped the one between Dem Ed Perlmutter and GOP House candidate Rick O'Donnell. You'll recall that O'Donnell not long ago sent out a groveling mailer begging forgiveness for having once written that he wanted to phase out Social Security. Now the state GOP has sent out another one in the district which -- while quite a bit darker in tone -- is every bit as innovative. The flyer charges that his opponent, Dem Ed Perlumtter, made some "soft on crime" votes as a former state senator. But here's the rub: The mailer appears to be designed to look like an official notification sent out when the government wants to alert you to a sex offender living in your community.

More ratings changes from CQ Politics:

* ID-01: CQ's just shifted its ranking of the race in this staunchly conservative district between GOPer Bill Sali and Dem Larry Grant from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican": "Sali’s unpredictable temper and history of conflict with members of his own party, an issue in the primary campaign, has since made it unexpectedly difficult for him to get 1st District Republicans to close ranks behind him."

* KS-02: CQ's also changed its rating of the contest between GOPer Jim Ryun and Dem Nancy Boyda -- once seen as a sure GOP win thanks partly to Ryun's iconic status as a record-setting runner in college -- from from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican": "The fact that Bush, according to Associated Press, is expected to make a late campaign appearance for Ryun suggests GOP officials may be more worried about the Kansas 2 campaign than they let on. Officials with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee evidently saw something they liked. Although they still have not included this district on their list of targeted challenge races, they did make a small ad buy in late October."

It isn't easy to find a ratings change favoring the GOP these days, but here's one: Charlie Cook has just changed his rating of the race for Tom DeLay's seat between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate "Leans Democratic" to "Toss Up." This contest is a strange one, to say the least. A recent poll found the race to be tighter than expected, with 36% for Lampson and 28% for Sekula-Gibbs. But it's impossible to gague the poll's accurate, because Sekula-Gibbs' name won't be on the ballot and voters might be confused by the write-in wrinkle. On the other hand, the poll also found that 52% knew of the write-in requirement and know how to handle it. We'll find out soon enough.

More ratings changes from CQ Politics:

ID-01: CQ's just shifted its ranking of the race in this staunchly conservative district between GOPer Bill Sali and Dem Larry Grant from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican": "Sali’s unpredictable temper and history of conflict with members of his own party, an issue in the primary campaign, has since made it unexpectedly difficult for him to get 1st District Republicans to close ranks behind him."

* KS-02:CQ's also changed its rating of the contest between GOPer Jim Ryun and Dem Nancy Boyda -- once seen as a sure GOP win thanks partly to Ryun's iconic status as a record-setting sprinter in college -- from from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican": "The fact that Bush, according to Associated Press, is expected to make a late campaign appearance for Ryun suggests GOP officials may be more worried about the Kansas 2 campaign than they let on. Officials with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee evidently saw something they liked. Although they still have not included this district on their list of targeted challenge races, they did make a small ad buy in late October."

Check out the new DCCC ad hammering the GOP Congress brutally hard over Iraq -- and make sure you don't miss the image towards the middle of a dazed and confused looking Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and George Bush:

If there's one relic that should go into the time capsule so future generations can marvel at the depths of absurdity and self-parody the GOP plumbed during this election, it may be this video of today's press briefing with Tony Snow. In it, Snow demands over and over that Kerry "apologize" for his botched Iraq joke, saying again and again that Kerry hasn't said "I'm sorry," even though Kerry did just that earlier today. Snow then actually says he's suggesting Kerry apologize in order to help him. Snow: "This is helpful advice! We're trying to help you out! We're throwing you a lifeline, buddy! Just say you're sorry! It's not hard!" To which a reporter replies: "Have you thought about sending Senator Kerry a gift basket?" Watch it here. It's a marvelous thing to behold.

John Kerry has nothing to apologize for -- his prepared remarks weren't disparaging to the troops in any way. But at any rate, Kerry said he was "sorry" for the botched joke hours earlier, on MSNBC.

A staggeringly large amount of money flooded into the battle for control of the House yesterday, as the GOP and Democratic Party dump a combined total of over $4.5 million races into dozens of House races across the country, new FEC filings show. We have highlights of the spending after the jump — and they're well worth a look, because they provide a snapshot of the latest thinking of the parties on the electoral map.

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The ultra-tight race between GOP Rep. John Sweeney and Dem challenger Kirsten Gillibrand has been thrown into turmoil by new revelations in the Daily News and Albany Times-Union, both of which reported late yesterday that GOP Rep. John Sweeney is in trouble over a newly-leaked police report that says his wife called 911 last December and told a dispatcher that Sweeney was "knocking her" around the house. Daily News reporter Ben Smith has the police report right here on his blog. Today the story is detonating like a bomb in the midst of the contest, and Gillibrand has just released her first statement on the revelations: "Today is a day for John Sweeney to answer questions about his own actions and behavior. The voters of this district deserve a full accounting from Mr. Sweeney instead of more attacks."

John Kerry apologizes:

"I said it was a botched joke. Of course, I'm sorry about a botched joke," Kerry, who had refused to apologize on Tuesday, said on the "Imus in the Morning" radio show on MSNBC.

It'll be mighty interesting to see if that mollifies Republicans who've been claiming they "want" Kerry to apologize. Right now, Tony Snow is in his press briefing, and he seems to be saying that the Imus appearance wasn't sufficient. He's claiming Kerry didn't say "I'm sorry," and he's continuing to demand that Kerry apologize.

So here's the new ad the Republican National Committee has just released attacking John Kerry for his botched Iraq joke. Key line: "John Kerry should apologize. Our soldiers are waiting." A quick note on this: It's a Web ad, and it's not on the air. That suggests the ad is really all about firing up demoralized Republican and conservative activists who are anxiously wondering whether the vaunted Rove brain trust has finally fizzled. It's about giving the rank-and-file a dose of past glory. It's about dangling a picture of Kerry in front of them and getting them to jump like dogs at a stick. View the ad here.

Dems are bailing on John Kerry after his botched Iraq joke. A quick wrap-up:

* Tennessee Senate candidate Harold Ford, Jr.: "Whatever the intent, Senator Kerry was wrong to say what he said."

* Montana Senate candidate Jon Tester: "Senator Kerry's remarks were poorly worded and just plain stupid. He owes our troops and their families an apology."

* Maryland Senate candidate Ben Cardin: "I'm sorry he did what he did. But I think the issue ... we want to make sure it doesn't confuse the subject of the war in Iraq."

Meanwhile, Kerry has canceled events with Dem House candidates Bruce Braley in Iowa and Tim Walz in Minnesota, and Dem Senate candidate Bob Casey in Pennsylvania.

CQ Politics has changed its rating of the race between scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Sherwood and Dem challenger Chris Carney from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." The shift shows once again how Sherwood's recent extramarital affair with a younger woman -- which Carney has not hesitated to make a campaign issue of -- threatens to sink Sherwood in a district so reliably conservative that Dems didn't field a challenger against him in the last two elections. As one pollster who's surveyed the race tells CQ: "The race in the 10th District appears to be primarily about two issues: Iraq and scandal. Unfortunately for Sherwood, neither issue helps him." CQ's full analysis here.

Reuters has just released a batch of polls done by John Zogby, and they show Dems well-positioned to grab control of the House, with leads in 12 of the 15 GOP-held districts surveyed:

Just two Republican incumbents, Simmons and Drake, were ahead in their races. Republican Rep. Geoff Davis of Kentucky, who led Democrat Ken Lucas last month, trailed this time by 3 percentage points, within the margin of error.

Other trailing Republican incumbents were Rep. Christopher Shays of Connecticut, behind Democrat Dianne Farrell 51 percent to 44 percent; Rep. Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, who trailed Democrat Lois Murphy by 49 percent to 44 percent; Rep. Chris Chocola of Indiana, behind Democrat Joe Donnelly 52 percent to 39 percent, and Rep. Mike Sodrel, who trailed Democrat Baron Hill 48 percent to 46 percent.

Republican Rep. Charles Taylor of North Carolina closed the gap on Democrat Heath Shuler but still trailed by 48 percent to 43 percent, while Wilson in New Mexico was behind Democrat Patricia Madrid 53 percent to 44 percent.

Interesting footnote: Of the nine seats surveyed which hold GOP incumbents, six of the incumbents poll below 40%, while the other three poll in the low 40s -- in other words, all well below 50%. View a full state-by-state rundown of the poll results here.

Senator Joe Lieberman's lead over Dem Ned Lamont is down slightly, to 12 points, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll out this morning. The survey finds Lieberman leading Lamont 49%-37%, a drop from Lieberman's lead of 52%-35% in the same poll on Oct. 20. Two interesting tidbits: Despite his flamboyant debate performances, GOP candidate Alan Schlesinger remains mired at eight percent, which is bad news for Lamont. Meanwhile, Lieberman is pulling a surprising 73% of the GOP vote -- double the 37% he gets among Dem voters.

So I just had a longer interview with Mike Stark, the man who was thrown to the ground today by staffers for Senator George Allen for asking their boss a couple of questions. He said he was acting out of frustration that the media is refusing to press Allen for answers about his two unexplained appearances in court records in the seventies and his refusal to unseal his divorce records. And while the Allen campaign today attacked Stark for "screaming" and "pushing" an Allen staffer, Stark claimed that the first physical contact was initiated by Allen staffers. More from Stark after the jump.

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So WVIR-TV, the local Virginia station that first broke the news that Mike Stark was treated like a tackling dummy by staffers to GOP Senator George Allen because he asked an uncomfortable question or two of their boss, has just posted a letter about the incident from Stark himself. "I demand that Senator Allen fire the staffers who beat up a constituent attempting to use his constitutional right to petition his government," Stark writes, adding that he's pressing charges against Allen himself. "I spent four years in the Marine Corps," Stark says. "I'll be damned if I'll let my country be taken from me by thugs that are afraid of taking responsibility for themselves." Stark's full letter after the jump.

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With John Kerry under assault by the GOP for allegedly insulting soldiers in Iraq, it didn't take very long for straight-talking, independent John McCain to step bravely forward and put truth before party:

"Senator Kerry owes an apology to the many thousands of Americans serving in Iraq, who answered their country’s call because they are patriots and not because of any deficiencies in their education," Mr. McCain said.

Mr. McCain said any suggestion that only the poorly educated would agree to serve in Iraq is "an insult to every soldier serving in combat."

McCain, of course, knows full well that fellow veteran Kerry meant no such thing. This McCain moment must be another of those displays of bravery and "independence" that David Broder keeps telling us we need in our leaders if the republic is to be rescued from the clutches of those other un-McCain-like pols -- you know, the partisan, pandering ones.

In this undeniably funny new ad from Ned Lamont, a car repeatedly drives straight into brick walls with graffiti labels such as "Iraq War" and "Dick Cheney's Energy Bill." After the car is wrecked and crumpled beyond recognition, an actor playing a dazed and confused Joe Lieberman stumbles out from the driver's seat. Lamont concludes: "If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result, why in the world would we send Joe Lieberman back to the U.S. Senate?" View it here.

So I just got hold of Mike Stark, the fellow who was thrown to the ground by GOP Senator George Allen's staffers because he posed a difficult question or two to their boss. Unfortunately Stark's cell phone ran out of juice soon after we started talking, but I was able to get a bit about what happened from him. Stark appears to be taking this to the proper authorities, as they say -- in an email before we spoke, he wrote that he was on his way to "go press charges." Interview with Stark after the jump.

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James Dobson, the influential head of Focus on the Family, is sending an email to supporters warning that gay-rights groups are giving Dem candidate Ed Perlmutter "significant financial support and have even hired homosexual youth to work on his behalf." The email itself is basically an implicit, though likely legally safe, endorsement of Perlmutter's GOP foe Rick O'Donnell, who Dobson says supporters should encourage "to continue his strong support for life and marriage." Colorado Confidential has a transcript of the email here.

Charlie Cook: "Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely." Cook's latest ratings changes:

AZ-05 (Hayworth) Lean Republican to Toss Up CA-11 (Pombo) Lean Republican to Toss Up CO-04 (Musgrave) Lean Republican to Toss Up CO-05 (Open) Likely Rep. to Lean Rep. IA-01 (Open) Toss Up to Lean Democratic KS-02 (Ryun) Likely Republican to Toss Up MN-01 (Gutknecht) Lean Republican to Toss Up NE-03 (Open) Likely Rep. to Lean Rep. NH-02 (Bass) Lean Republican to Toss Up OH-02 (Schmidt) Lean Republican to Toss Up WY-AL (Cubin) Lean Republican to Toss Up CA-50 (Bilbray) Likely Rep. to Lean Rep

Every one of those changes favors Dems. "Just a few weeks ago," Cook writes, "most of these newly added contests were either considered long-shots or weren’t even on the radar screen."

Did GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce skip out on a restaurant check — causing the restaurant to go out of business? A former restaurateur named Sheila Hunter has just written a letter to a local newspaper, the Madison Press, complaining that a recent Pryce campaign event at the restaurant ran up a bill for $150. The letter complains that the Price campaign took several weeks to pay, with several attempts on Hunter's part to collect — and by the time the check finally came, the restaurant had closed. Hunter called the delayed payment "a straw that broke my back." The campaign manager for Pryce's Dem opponent, Mary Jo Kilroy, pounced: "This sure wasn't Signatures, Jack Abramoff's restaurant, that could afford to give away expensive meals to yield influence over powerful friends. I guess Pryce has been in Washington so long she doesn't know the difference anymore."

Now playing: Attack Of The Allen Staffers, The Video:

With four new polls in two days showing Dem Jim Webb edging into a lead over GOP Senator George Allen, Webb has just launched a new ad which doesn't mention Allen and looks as if it contains Webb's closing argument: "As a Marine I fought a lot of battles for this country. But the battle we're in right now is the most important of my life. Those in power haven't served us...If you're ready for change, I'd be honored to have your vote."

Just out from the Associated Press:

Signaling retreat, House Republicans are scaling back television advertising in three highly contested races, officials said Tuesday, including Rep. Curt Weldon's bid for an 11th term in Pennsylvania and open seats in Colorado and Ohio...

The two other races where Republicans are scaling back advertising include the Ohio district that convicted Rep. Bob Ney has represented, and the one Rep. Bob Beauprez vacated to run for governor of Colorado.

CQ Politics rates Weldon's race as "leans Democratic," largely due to the Federal probe bearing down on him. The AP says that the cash once alloted for Weldon's race will be redirected to help struggling Pennsylvania GOP incumbents Michael Fitzpatrick and Jim Gerlich, while the money for Ney's seat will go to helping Ohio Rep. Deborah Pryce. Meanwhile, AP notes, Dems are expanding "into districts in Kansas and Nebraska that have long been in GOP hands." Tick, tock, tick tock...

With several new polls showing Dem Jim Webb edging into a lead over GOP Senator George Allen, both parties are rapidly moving to pour millions of dollars into the race for its final week. The National Republican Senatorial Committee sank an astonishing $1,087,692.50 into the race this morning alone, new FEC filings show. Meanwhile, the Dems are also moving to pump millions into the race: The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that the DSCC will pump another $2.5 million into the race, bringing the total spent by both parties to over $3.5 million this week — and the week isn't even halfway done. Key footnote: The vast majority of the GOP money — $1,074,800 — will be spent on negative ads attacking Webb, rather than promoting Allen himself.

This is a good one. Yesterday John McCain did an event with GOP House candidate Peter Roskam, who's running against Dem Iraq vet Tammy Duckworth. McCain spoke at length about wounded soldiers at the event. In a reference to Walter Reed Army Medical Center, McCain said: "I go out to Walter Reed quite often and see these brave young [soldiers] who have served and sacrificed so much. Many of them have lost limbs, as you know. And it's a very sad thing to see. But at the same time it's very uplifting. Because these young people are so proud of what they've done...This generation of men and women who are serving in the military are the very, very, very best of us." Watch it below:

Though the event was for Roskam, you'd think it should have been for Duckworth: After all, she is one of the people who, as McCain put it, "lost limbs" -- she lost both legs in Iraq. And here's the kicker: She recovered at the hospital McCain mentioned -- Walter Reed -- and continues to go there for follow-up treatment. So one of the "brave" vets McCain said he sees there and is saddened by could have been Duckworth herself.

John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC has no plans to fire Terry Nelson, the man who authorized the now-infamous "Bimbo" ad for the RNC. "His role is to advise us on campaigns all over the country, as far as which campaigns the PAC should be supporting," PAC director Craig Goldman told The Hill. "He continues in that role." As Election Central previously noted, Wal-Mart severed its relationship with Nelson on Friday after recieving pressure from Jesse Jackson, union groups, and Democrats alike. Nelson had been hired to coordinate the company's new voter-registration drive.

Check out this fundraising letter sent out by GOP Rep. Peter Roskam, who's battling Dem Tammy Duckworth in Illinois' sixth district:

Note how Roskam insinuates -- without quite saying it -- that "Al Jezeera" (sic) wants Duckworth to win. Also note the reference to George Stephanopoulos a

A rash of newspaper endorsements and campaign trail cameos, some raised eyebrows in Texas’ 22^nd, and Karl Rove’s proof that he knows more than anyone else who has ever lived. The Midterm Roundup apologizes if it has become ragged and incoherent. We’re just 1 freaking week away, people!

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CNN just released a batch of polls of key Senate races -- and they show that the battle for the Senate is too close to call. Assuming Dems knock off trailing GOP incumbent Senators in Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Rhode Island, Dems then need to pick up two more seats to win the Senate. If they hold New Jersey -- where the CNN poll shows Dem Robert Menendez up 51%-44% over GOPer Tom Kean, Jr. -- then then need to win two out of three of the closer contests in Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri, and CNN finds all to be extremely tight. In Virginia, Dem Jim Webb is leading Senator George Allen, 50%-46%; in Missouri, Senator Jim Talent and Dem Claire McCaskill are deadlocked at 49%; and among likely voters in Tennessee, GOPer Bob Corker is ahead of Dem Harold Ford, Jr., 52%-44% -- though among registered voters Corker is leading only 47%-45%, which is within the poll's margin of error. Tight, tight, tight.

Desperation in Indiana:

This full page ad ran yesterday in the Terre Haute Tribune-Star, paid for by the campaign of GOP Rep. John Hostettler. You may recall that Hostettler recently ran a radio ad saying that a vote for Dem challenger Brad Ellsworth is a vote to "advance the homosexual agenda." Polls show Ellsworth trouncing Hostettler by as many as 23 points.

This is interesting. Democracy Corps, the polling firm of Stan Greenberg and Bob Shrum, has just released its latest strategy memo -- and it finds that thanks to the steady stream of bad news from Iraq, majorities in GOP-held districts are now for reducing the number of troops in the Iraq war. The firm surveyed 50 competitive House districts -- all of them held by Republicans -- and found that 54% in these districts only favor beginning troop reductions. Another key conclusion about these exclusively Republican districts: "For the first time, disapproval of the Republican incumbent, asked by name, exceeds approval." Full memo here.

Here at Election Central we've tried to keep you up to date on every single ratings change made throughout the cycle by CQ Politics. And now, CQ has released its final macro-report on all the races. Key conclusion: "The Republicans are now ahead at least marginally in only 207 races, meaning that even if they hold on to all of those (which won’t happen) they must win 11 of the 18 tossups to retain power." But CQ isn't prepared to guarantee a Dem victory. The big unknown, for CQ, is this: Which will prove stronger — the Dem wave, i.e. the electorate's hunger for change, or the GOP bulwark, i.e. institutional advantages born of redistricting and superior turnout operations? It's "the clash of a supposedly immovable object and reputably irresistible force," CQ says. More from CQ's overview here.

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One of the few Dem-held seats the GOP has heavily targeted is the one held by Dem Rep. Jim Marshall in Georgia — after all, the GOP-led state government recently redrew his district to include the home town of Marshall's GOP challenger, Mac Collins. But Election Central has now obtained an internal poll from the Marshall campaign which suggests that he's pulled significantly ahead of Collins. The poll, which was conducted by the Mellman Group, a Dem firm, finds Marshall up 50%-34% — a large enough spread to suggest that Marshall is in comfortable shape even if you factor in the inevitable bias of publicly-released internal polls. Key footnote: The poll has Marshall and Collins tied among white voters, while Marshall wins by a landslide among blacks. We'll be posting the poll's internals shortly.

Big news from Ohio. Arguing that “his effectiveness seems to have peaked,” The Cincinnati Enquirer turned against GOP incumbent Steve Chabot and said “It is time for him to come home.” The Enquirer’s endorsement of Chabot’s Democratic challenger John Cranley is especially striking considering the paper’s long-time support for Chabot (including in his first race against Cranley in 2000) and the fact that in each of the four other House races in which the Enquirer offered an endorsement, it choose the Republican.

In addition to his waning effectiveness, The Enquirer cites a spat of dishonest advertising run by Chabot and a record of energy and bipartisanship by Cranley. The endorsement and a recent DCCC poll giving Cranley a 9 point lead have his supporters excited going into the final week.

In this cycle it's pretty rare that a nonpartisan analyst shifts his or her rating of a race in favor of the GOP, but Charlie Cook has now downgraded the contest between Dem Ben Cardin and GOP candidate Michael Steele from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss Up." Cook notes that the race is "closer than most observers expected it to be." Check out all the polls of the race here.

Dem Gov. Jim Doyle has a new ad up, "Wrong Choice." The ad features a woman discussing her experience of being brutally raped at age 18, and then attacks GOP nominee Mark Green for opposing abortion rights, as the words "even rape and incest" flash across the screen. The woman concludes, "Congressman Green, after what I went through it should be my choice, not yours." Doyle currently has a small lead over Green.

Okay, so now the DSCC is demanding the release of GOP Senator George Allen's Bar Application. The DSCC's J.B. Poersch has sent a letter to the Virginia State Bar, asking it to release the records and noting that Allen's name has made two appearances in court records which he has refused to account for. Poersch points out that Allen may have been required to address the court-records appearances on his application, and notes that release of the record "may be the only way Virginians can learn the truth" about this. So, a question. Both the Times and the Washington Post devoted extensive coverage to Allen's attack on Dem Jim Webb's novels, deeming it newsworthy simply because Allen raised the issue. Now that the DSCC has raised the issue of the court records, when will the Times and Post write about it?

GOP Senator Rick Santorum -- who's trailing Dem Bob Casey by double digits in polls -- has launched a remarkable attack on Casey: He's now accusing the Dem of "aiding and abetting terrorism and genocide." Today's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Santorum is making this charge by rather creatively pointing out that Casey, who's state treasurer, hasn't ensured that pension funds were not invested in firms that do business with nations "linked" to terrorism, such as Iran and Syria. Of course, there's a small problem with this attack: As a Casey spokesman is noting, Santorum's own campaign has taken money from some of the very same companies which Casey allegedly failed to prevent pension fund investments in. Among them: Royal Dutch/Shell and Deutche Bank. More here.

So we've received a copy of the closing ad being run by Dem vet amputee Tammy Duckworth. It quickly recaps her bio and the rationale for her candidacy: She served our country when called, and suffered severe injuries for her country, but now sees that the GOP leadership is refusing to recognize that the Iraq war is a disaster. Duckworth looks directly into the camera, and says: "I'm proud of my service in Iraq, and the sacrifice I made when our country called. But two years later, things are even worse." It also runs through Duckworth's newspaper endorsements, which are compelling.

It's a good ad. The question now, however, is whether the Duckworth campaign has the cash it needs to run this and other ads often enough. A poll out today from Illinois' Daily Herald shows that if the Duckworth forces lack the resources to give a real final push, it could cost them the race: It found the race a dead heat.

So it looks as if GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson's increasingly bizarre ads -- one was christened the most evil ad "ever" by a local paper, while another shows Dem Chris Murphy hanging out with a drug dealer -- are not only failing, but may to a small extent be working against Johnson. A new poll just out from the Hartford Courant finds that Murphy has is holding a four-point lead over Johnson, 46%-42%. And check out this tidbit: "This atmosphere of negativity, however, seems to have hurt Johnson more than Murphy," the Courant says. "When the sample was asked whose ads have been more negative, 34 percent said Johnson's, and 29 percent said Murphy's ads were more negative." This isn't the biggest difference, of course, but it suggests her ads are at least not helping. View the drug-dealer ad below.

Didn’t catch the Sunday morning talk shows? Luckily the Midterm Roundup did, and this time it means every single minute of every single one. It’s a special Sunday Show Mondo-Roundup. Breaking news! – Political maestro Karl Rove ensures a November 7 GOP victory by announcing, “The midterm elections are not just 8 days away. The midterm elections will not occur this year.”

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In North Carolina's tightest race, some bad news for the GOP. GOP Rep. Charles Taylor -- you remember, the fellow who collected a bunch of money from Jack Abramoff lobbyists then denied it was a fundraiser -- appears to have lost an important supporter: the Asheville Citizen-Times. The paper -- which has backed Taylor in the past -- today threw its support to Dem challenger Heath Shuler, a key endorsement. The paper concluded that Taylor's talent for bringing back pork was outweighed by the need to jettison the GOP majority: "To support Taylor is to endorse two more years of the same ineffectual leadership." CQ Politics rates the contest a toss-up, partly because of Taylor's personal wealth.

In the midst of a piece in today's Los Angeles Times which strikes an inexplicably approving tone even as it runs through all the ways Karl Rove is using government resources to bolster the GOP's political fortunes, there comes this truly priceless moment of Rove hagiography:

Rove is giving a virtuoso performance designed to prevent the Democrats from taking control of the House and Senate or, if that is no longer possible, to hold down the size of the Democratic victory to make it easier for the GOP to come back in 2008. His plan is three-pronged: to reenergize any conservatives who may be flagging; to make sure the GOP's carefully constructed campaign apparatus is functioning at peak efficiency; and to put the resources of the federal government to use for political gain.

In terms of the third prong, signs of the maestro at work are visible in Buffalo and beyond.

So even if Dems win both houses by small margins, the man who was a leading architect of that loss should still be held up as a virtuoso, simply because Dems didn't win both Houses by more? And we're supposed to admire the "maestro" for using our tax dollars to help the GOP? Just astonishing. Has anyone seen a more absurd moment of Rove deification than this one?

Corker and Ford debate for the first time since “the ad,” a new and different ruling is handed down in Foley Town, and the GOP pulls the plug on the Ohio Senate race (for real this time). The Midterm Roundup is quivering with anticipation – Only 2 days left for the OCTOBER SURPRISE!!! WHAT WILL IT BE?!?!

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For days now there's been some buzz to the effect that national Dems are preparing to pump a huge amount of cash into the deadlocked contest between GOP Rep. Chris Shays and Dem challenger Diane Farrell. Well, the money's finally arrived: Yesterday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped $1,025,989.50 into the race for an ad buy targeting Shays going into this thrilling contest's final days.

The New York Times, which backed Ned Lamont in the Dem primary against Joe Lieberman, today gives the nod to Lamont again in strikingly glowing terms: "[Lieberman] and Mr. Bush are still on the very same page, encouraging the American people to believe that there is a happy ending for American involvement in Iraq, and that all it takes is the perseverance to keep marching toward the end of the rainbow. Ned Lamont has run a far less polished campaign than Mr. Lieberman, but the more we see of him, the more impressed we are by his intelligence and his growing sophistication about the issues facing the nation...his willingness to take on Mr. Lieberman when no one else dared to do it showed real courage and conviction." Full editorial after the jump.

Update: Lieberman picks up the endorsements of the Hartford Courant and the New Haven Register.

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