Interesting tidbit from today's Newsweek poll -- respondents say negative ads from both parties actually make voters less likely to vote for their candidates, but GOP ads are more effective at repulsing voters than Dem ads are:

Most worrisome for the GOP? As a wave of negative political ads from both parties takes to the airwaves in the final days before the election, voters so far judge the Republican ads more harshly. Overall, about two-thirds of registered voters say neither parties’ ads have made much difference in how they’re going to vote. Just 9 percent of registered voters who have seen Republican advertisements say the spots make them more likely to vote for Republican candidates; 24 percent say the ads make them less likely. The Democrats seem to turn off fewer voters with their commercials and win more over, but it’s still a wash. Fourteen percent of registered voters say they’re more likely to vote for a Democrat because of the ads they’ve seen; 16 percent say they’re less likely.

In ten days or so, the roar of negative ads will abruptly disappear.

Okay, so today both the New York Times and the Washington Post devoted substantial ink to GOP Senator George Allen's attack on Dem Jim Webb's treatment of women in his novels. So now the question is: When are the major dailies going to do stand-alone stories on Allen's refusal to unseal his divorce file and account for his unexplained 1970s appearance in court records? Allen and the NRSC (see ad below) are making a central issue of Webb's (literary and verbal) treatment of women. So Allen has opened the door for news orgs to press hard for his divorce record -- which could tell us something of Allen's attitudes towards women, specifically his ex-wife. As both Josh over at TPM and Political Wire noted yesterday, reporters are working on the story but the Allen camp is tight-lipped. Will we see stories on this? Relatedly, the DSCC today sent out a release demanding that Allen account for his appearances in court records and insisting he release his Bar application. Will we see stories on this tomorrow?

As Election Central has been noting regularly, one obvious way to keep track of which races the national parties are alarmed about -- or think they can win -- is to check out which races are getting the big daily expenditures of cash. Late yesterday, the NRSC and the NRCC dropped a total of $10 million into races across the country. The NRSC dropped $3,017,920.00 into NJ-SEN, on ads targeting Dem Robert Menendez. And the NRCC sank a total of $7,096,715.82 into dozens of House races. Biggest expenditures: The NRCC pumped hundreds of thousands into each of around a half-dozen races, for ads targeting Dems Angie Paccione in CO-04, Tim Mahoney in FL-16, Baron Hill in IN-09, Patricia Madrid in NM-01, Melissa Bean in IL-08 and Harry Mitchell in AZ-05. Detailed breakdown of NRCC spending here.

The National Journal's Chuck Todd has updated his House Rankings. His overview finds that the top 10 seats held by the GOP are basically lost causes, all but certain to get swept away. Here they are:

1) AZ-08 - Open Seat (R) 2) TX-22 - Open Seat (R) 3) IN-08 - John Hostettler (R) 4) PA-10 - Don Sherwood (R) 5) PA-07 - Curt Weldon (R) 6) OH-18 - Open Seat (R) 7) FL-16 - Open Seat (R) 8) CO-07 - Open Seat (R) 9) IN-02 - Chris Chocola (R) 10) NC-11 - Charles Taylor (R)

Dems would only need five more seats to take the House. Guess how many GOP-held seats beyond the above 10 are seriously in play: Twenty-five. Todd's full rankings here. Meanwhile, the latest ratings are out from Rothenberg Political Report. House: "Democratic gain of 18-28 seats, with the caveat that larger gains surely are possible." Senate: "Democratic gains of 4-7 seats."

"Bimbo"-gate has claimed its first casualty. Terry Nelson, the top-flight GOP consultant who was political director of Bush-Cheney 2004, has lost his gig as a consultant to Wal-Mart because of his role in helping produce the "bimbo" ad targeting Dem Harold Ford, Jr. Nelson had been hired a month ago by Wal-Mart to help the company develop its new voter-registration drive, but because of Nelson's role in producing the racially-charged ad, Wal-Mart found itself targeted by severe criticism from Jesse Jackson and others who demanded that the company fire Nelson. Wal-Mart media relations director David Tovar just issued a statement saying that Nelson had "sent a letter to Wal-Mart ending its working relationship with our company. We believe this is the right course of action." Moral: It's not good for business to attach your name to ads like the "bimbo" spot.

Lynne Cheney went on The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer this afternoon and, according to The Hotline, attacked Dem Senate candidate Jim Webb's sexually-charged writing as follows:

Cheney: "Jim Webb is full of baloney. I have never written anything sexually explicit. His novels are full of sexual explicit references to incest, sexually explicit references -- well, you know, I just don't want my grandchildren to turn on the television set."

Cheney is the author of a novel called "Sisters." When Blitzer asked her about it, suggesting that it contained "a lesbian love affair, brothels and attempted rapes," Cheney dismissed this as "lies."

We don't have a copy -- yet. But here's how the Associated Press described the book in 2004: "a historical romance published in 1981 that includes brothels, attempted rapes and a lesbian love affair." And here's something Cheney wrote in the book, according to excerpts sent our way by the DSCC: "They moved into the bedroom. 'Mmmmmm,' he agreed as they fell toward the bed."

More of Cheney's literary, er, effusions after the jump — so you can judge for yourself.

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Dem Senate candidate Sherrod Brown's campaign is trying a new experiment that's worth a look: It's recording real-time endorsements of Brown -- from ordinary citizens -- and posting them on its web site for others to listen to. The recordings are surprisingly moving -- they capture real emotion on the part of citizens, something all too lacking from modern politics. You can hear a school teacher whose terminally ill son wouldn’t have received medical help in time without Brown’s help, or a Marine vet from Brown’s district expressing his gratitude for Brown’s support of the military. Give some of it a listen. It's good stuff.

Wal-Mart is refusing to comment on reports that the company has decided to ax GOP consultant Terry Nelson for helping to produce the RNC's controversial "bimbo" ad. Wal-Mart hired Nelson last month to help with its new voter registration drive. After news broke that Nelson, who was political director for Bush-Cheney '04, was a key producer of "bimbo," Jesse Jackson and an anti-Wal-Mart union group yesterday demanded that the company fire Nelson to prove it doesn't tolerate racism. Today the Huffington Post claimed that Wal-Mart has decided to toss Nelson, a report which is also circulating in Tennessee political circles. In a phone interview, Election Central gave Wal-Mart spokesman Dave Tovar several chances to deny that Nelson was getting fired; each time, he declined to comment. Stay tuned.

The St. Paul Pioneer Press endorses Dem Patty Wetterling today with some harsh words for GOPer Michelle Bachmann. Here's the key point:

But Bachmann pushes her faith-based politics well past that. In testimony to a Brooklyn Park church congregation this month — also available on YouTube — she spoke of how the Almighty called her to run for the state Senate and the U.S. Congress, and how she followed her husband's career advice because "the Lord says, 'Be submissive, wives — you are to be submissive to your husbands.' "

And, finally, how God has "focused like a laser beam in his reasoning on this race.''

We used to call that the sin of pride.

It pains us, in the middle of a campaign, to have to pry into these private, spiritual moments. The issue is not that she believes. It is that she builds political support by claiming to know which side God is on. We say that's unknowable.

Wetterling, on the other hand, comes by her moral standing the hard way.

Check out the video of Bachmann at the mega-church here.

The St. Paul Pioneer Press endorses Dem Patty Wetterling today with some harsh words for GOPer Michelle Bachmann. Here's the key point:

But Bachmann pushes her faith-based politics well past that. In testimony to a Brooklyn Park church congregation this month — also available on YouTube — she spoke of how the Almighty called her to run for the state Senate and the U.S. Congress, and how she followed her husband's career advice because "the Lord says, 'Be submissive, wives — you are to be submissive to your husbands.' "

And, finally, how God has "focused like a laser beam in his reasoning on this race.''

We used to call that the sin of pride.

It pains us, in the middle of a campaign, to have to pry into these private, spiritual moments. The issue is not that she believes. It is that she builds political support by claiming to know which side God is on. We say that's unknowable.

Wetterling, on the other hand, comes by her moral standing the hard way.

Check out the video here.

GOP Rep. Ron Lewis denied Tuesday that he had made a pledge to only serve for eight years when first running for Congress in 1994 — eventhough he did make the promise. The Lexington Herald-Leader reported yesterday on a letter Lewis sent to constituents in 1998 explaining why he planned to renege on his term-limit promise. Acknowledging the discrpency, Lewis released a statement Thursday stating that while he may have abandoned the original pledge, since 1998 his "position has remained consistent" that he is not bound by term-limits.

Most of you readers well know that GOP House candidate Peter Roskam, who's running against Dem Tammy Duckworth, is one of TPM's award-winning Social Security bamboozlers. Last year as a state senator, he ducked out of a vote on whether or not to back Bush's phase-out privatization plan. More recently, he told AARP that he opposed privatization -- even though he replied "yes" on the National Tax Payers Union's survey on whether he backed privatization. Given this record, it's kind of surprising to see that Roskam is now hammering Duckworth for wanting to take away Social Security in a new ad. In it, he says: "Tammy Duckworth says she'll cut Social Security benefits or even raise the retirement age. I never will."

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The latest strategy memo from Democracy Corps, the firm of James Carville, Stan Greenberg and Bob Shrum, takes a look at a batch of recent polls and concludes:

As we head into the final ten days of the 2006 campaign, a wealth of new public poll releases confirm that Democrats hold a commanding and stable lead in the race for Congress. Neither President Bush nor congressional Republicans are making the dramatic changes needed to change the strong change dynamic dominating the political environment on the eve of the midterm elections. Democrats have slipped slightly in the generic congressional contest this week but still lead by 15 points and attract a clear majority of 53 percent across the most recent seven surveys.

Key footnote: The average of all polls of the generic Congressional matchup in October finds Dems leading the GOP, 53.2%-39.2%. For September, the average was Dems 49.1%, Republicans 40.3% -- suggesting that the dynamic hasn't changed despite the commemoration of Sept. 11, the administration's Iraq-and-terror push, and the $40 million the NRCC has pumped into the midterms in the last seven weeks.

Yesterday we brought you news of Nancy Johnson’s new campaign ad that shows a Chris Murphy impersonator hanging out with a drug dealer that invites him into his house after declaring, “You wanna weaken penalties for drug dealers, man! That's so cool!"  The Murphy campaign has responded to this ad with a press release that clarifies some information on the reference to drug dealers in Johnson’s ad.   The bill to which the ad refers, was actually designed to equalize penalties for crack and cocaine.  The two are essentially the same drug, but getting arrested for possession of the crack form could land you a far harsher sentence than possessing same amount of cocaine in powder form.  For more information on the reform of Connecticut’s drug laws see here.

GOP Senator George Allen and Dem challenger James Webb are in a dead heat, with Allen at 49% and Webb at 48%, a new Rasmussen Reports poll finds. The poll also finds that voters are proving slow in warming towards Webb: "Voters are also more lukewarm toward Webb personally. Allen earns relatively high "very favorable" (32%) as well as "very unfavorable" (31%) ratings, versus 20% and 21% for Webb. But Webb's overall favorables are slightly higher." Most recent polls show Allen with a slight lead.

New "stay the course" ad, special Joe Lieberman edition! It comes courtesy of the Ned Lamont campaign:

It's pretty good. Give it a watch.

Another Dem seat once seen as competitive has slipped into the safe category. CQ Politics says that it is now likely that Dem Phil Hare will "prevail over Republican Andrea Zinga by a decisive margin" for the seat of retiring Dem Rep. Lane Evans, and has changed its rating of the race from "Leans Democratic" to the less competitive "Democrat Favored." CQ: "Hare surely will rack up a big margin in Rock Island County, which includes the cities of Rock Island and Moline and has a strong organized labor presence, and in other urbanized areas in the district such as Galesburg and parts of Springfield and Decatur." CQ's full Illinois roundup here.

Last week the ever-supremely-confident Karl Rove boasted that the GOP had a huge cash edge that would fuel the Republicans' inevitable triumph over Dems -- but the latest numbers are in, and Rove's boast has simply failed to materialize. The Associated Press reports that the Democrats' campaign committees raised a total of $15.5 million during the first 18 days in October, while Republicans raised $10.1 million. The AP tallies up the totals: the GOP has $27.2 to spend on candidates in the home stretch, while Dems have $26.7 million -- a GOP advantage of less than a million dollars. Though the GOP claims a $14 million edge held by individual Senate campaigns, that's spread across many races and will partly be offset by the massive spending of the committees.

After a brief period where it looked as if Dem Robert Menendez had begun opening up a lead over GOPer Tom Kean, Jr., the New Jersey Senate race is again deadlocked, according to a new poll just out from the New York Times. The poll shows the two candidates in a statistical tie, with 40% of likely voters for Menendez and 39% for Kean. Key footnote: "Thirty-nine percent of registered voters said they could change their minds before the Nov. 7 election," the Times says, adding that together both parties plan to pump a total of $7.5 million into the race in the final stretch.

Here's some news likely to give rise to more bitter recriminations in the already-white-hot race between GOPer Bob Corker and Dem Harold Ford, Jr. A story just posted over at the Jewish Daily Forward says that the Tennessee GOP has sent out a flyer which says across the top: "Vote early to preserve your way of life." The recipient of the flyer, Rabbi Louis Zivic of Knoxville’s Heska Amuna Synagogue, tells the paper that he sees it as a "subtle message," adding: "I think this is all pitched sub rosa to people who have a tendency to be discriminatory." As the Forward puts it, "in earlier decades, some white leaders used similar language in opposing civil rights for blacks." More after the jump.

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It's not often that campaigns point to internal polls showing them losing as evidence that they're doing well, but that's exactly what Vern Buchanan, the GOP candidate for Katherine Harris' seat, has just done. A few days ago Dem candidate Christine Jennings released her own internal numbers showing her her up 52-41, and Buchanan responded by disputing those numbers in an interview with the Bradenton Herald. To prove he was doing well, he told the paper that his own internals have him behind, but only "within the margin of error" — and declined to elaborate further. The admission by Buchanan that his own internals have him down suggests that the Harris seat is increasingly likely to go Democratic.

Election Central is told that a new as-yet-unreleased internal poll commissioned by the campaign of Dem Iraq veteran Tammy Duckworth has found her up one point -- a virtual tie -- over GOP foe Peter Roskam, 44%-43%. If the poll's accurate, it suggests Duckworth may have withstood weeks of hammering in the form of negative ads and mailings from the NRCC and Roskam. The NRCC alone has dumped over $2.2 million into the race. This is an internal poll, and we don't have any more info as of now, so make of this what you will. Public polls have shown both sides leading at various times. Read the Duckworth polling memo after the jump.

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This is a good one. The NRCC has a new ad up attacking Dem House candidate John Cranley for...being in favor of tasering kids! It's true: The ad slams Cranley -- who's challenging incumbent GOP Rep. Steve Chabot -- for siding with the Cincinnati police department when a local pol pushed to change PD policy to make it illegal to taser kids under 11. Cranley opposed the change, saying that in the rare cases a young kid (wielding a knife, for example) needs to be subdued it's better to taser him then shoot him. Hence the NRCC ad accusing Cranley of wanting to shock this 7-year-old girl in pigtails. Check out our screen grab below; see the full ad after the jump.

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The now infamous RNC "bimbo" ad has sparked plenty of controversy in the US for its possible racial undertones, but it's making waves in Canada for another reason. Canadian ambassador Michael Wilson called the Bush admnistration Wednesday to complain about a line in the ad that insults Canada as a foreign policy freeloader. “Canada can take care of North Korea," an actor in the ad declares. "They're not busy." Speaking to the Canadian Press, another Canadian official pointed out that Canada was busy in US-led wars, reminding "Republicans that Canada is playing an active role in rebuilding Afghanistan."

Larry Sabato's latest:

As we take a snapshot of the electoral landscape from the perspective of twelve days out, our best guess is that Democrats are on track to net 21 to 26 seats in the House, 4 to 6 seats in the Senate, and 5 to 7 governorships.

Changes could push these projections in either direction, but here's a catch: inside of two weeks left, underdog candidates who seek to make their move must do so now or forever hold their peace. The second-to-last week of a campaign is typically the last week voter persuasion is conducted before full-blown get-out-the-vote efforts take over, and for good reason: new arguments and attacks rarely resonate during the final week, as they are often viewed suspiciously by the media and quickly get labeled "too little too late."

"National security, border security and the economy - these are the issues that matter most to the American people as we confront challenges domestically and abroad."

Bill Frist, interviewed in New Hampshire, Oct. 25:

"The challenge is to get Americans to focus on pocketbook issues, and not on the Iraq and terror issue."

National Dems have just unleashed a brutally hard-hitting ad which by coincidence seem perfectly timed to coincide with today's Presidential press conference designed to persuade people that the White House has never really advocated "staying the course" in Iraq. The ad shows Bush, Dick Cheney and Tony Snow repeating "stay the course" no less than 15 times before abruptly pivoting to Bush saying: "Listen, we've never been stay the course." The coup de grace: "Mr. President, America deserves more than a change in rhetoric. America deserves a change in strategy." This is currently a heavily-used Dem talking point, but let's face it, the line is a good one. View it here.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz, speaking in today's Washington Post:

"They honestly need a baseball bat against the head," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz..."I've given up on 2006. They've already made so many mistakes, there's no way they can fix it in two weeks."

Here's why this is interesting: Frank Luntz was the key pollster behind Newt Gingrich's contract with America, which helped the GOP takeover Congress in 1994.

TN-SEN: Corker Also Doesn’t Like RNC’s Playmate Ad, Obviously Can’t Be Expected to do Anything About It

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TN-SEN: Corker Also Doesn’t Like RNC’s Playmate Ad, Obviously Can’t Be Expected to do Anything About It

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This could tip the race. After backing GOP Rep. Chris Shays in the past, including against Dem Diane Farrell when she last challenged him in 2004, the New York Times is now throwing its support to Farrell. The paper says: "The Times has endorsed Mr. Shays in every race in which he has faced a serious opponent...Still, as his party has moved to the right, Mr. Shays has taken more and more stands with which we have profound disagreement...When Ms. Farrell first challenged Mr. Shays two years ago, The Times chose to endorse him as a rare voice for moderation...Now it is time to draw the line...With due respect for Mr. Shays’s service, we strongly endorse Diane Farrell for Congress."

Woah, another huge money drop -- on both sides of the aisle. The NRCC sank $4,077,649 into a bunch of House races late today, new FEC filings show. What races is the NRCC most worried about? Well, $355,812 went into Arizona's fifth against Dem Harry Mitchell. $455,405 went into Connecticut's fifth against Dem Chris Murphy. $540,993 went into Illinois' eighth against Dem Melissa Bean. More of the cash breakdown here. Meanwhile, the DCCC pumped around $8 million into dozens of House races -- including a whopping expenditure of over $700,000 into Illinois' sixth on behalf of Dem Tammy Duckworth.

Okay, so here's a bit more on the Republican National Committee's "bimbo" ad targeting Dem Harold Ford, Jr., which you can view in all its lowbrow glory right here. As noted below, Ken Mehlman defended the ad today on MSNBC, saying he doesn't "have the authority" to get it pulled down. But we checked in with election law expert David Donnelly of the nonpartisan Public Campaign Action Fund, and he says that Mehlman's argument is "weak." More after the jump.

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With the battle for control of the Senate intensifying its focus on a handful of contests, CQ Politics has declared that the Montana race is now less a dead-heat and more a likely Dem pickup, changing its rating of the race between GOP incumbent Conrad Burns and Dem Jon Tester from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":

Tester, an organic farmer and president of the Montana Senate, leads Burns by 7 percentage points, 48 percent to 41 percent, in an average of the past five independent polls.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), meanwhile, was focusing a significant amount of money on the ad wars in the final weeks. The party’s national Senate campaign committee spent $2 million on the race over the election cycle, $1.5 million of which was spent just since Sept. 30.

The DSCC’s partisan counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, meanwhile, was staying out of the independent expenditures arena, although it donated $37,000 to Burns’ campaign in March 2005.

Republicans have made much of MoveOn’s intervention in an effort to portray Tester as out of the Montana mainstream. But Tester’s country-boy manner, complete with flattop haircut and big belly, have made it hard to portray him as a left-wing extremist.

The most recent polls on the race are here.

Another big money drop in Virginia: Today the NRSC dropped $1,448,149.00 into the Senate race, virtually all of it on ads targeting Dem Jim Webb, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. The cash drop comes a day after a new poll showed GOP Senator George Allen with a slim four-point lead over Webb. Meanwhile, national GOP strategists appear to be clinging to hope in Ohio: A Dem strategist in contact with Ohio TV stations tells Election Central that the RNC sank over $700,000 into an ad buy for GOP Senator Mike DeWine (the buy isn't yet on file with the FEC). The strategists adds, however, that national Dems are outgunning that with an Ohio buy topping $1,000,000 this week.

By now you may have seen this exceptionally tasteful Republican National Committee ad attacking Dem Harold Ford, Jr., in which a somewhat, shall we say, crass looking young woman says: "I met Harold at the Playboy Party!"

The Weekly Standard, a DC-based neoconservative magazine, published an early political obituary for GOP Senator Conrad Burns this week, in the form of a glowing profile of Democratic opponent Jon Tester. The piece confirms speculation that beltway Republicans are very pessimistic about the chances that Burns can stage a comeback, given his deficit in the polls. Tester dons the cover of the magazine in a dirty t-shirt shoveling into a huge truck over the headline: "The New Face of the Democratic Party?" (Details after the break.)

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Religious activists in Connecticut took their anti-torture message to the editorial pages of the Hartford Courant this morning. Rev. Kathleen McTigue and Rabbi Donna Berman, writing on behalf of the interfaith activist network “Reclaiming the Prophetic Voice,” argue in an OpEd that by voting for the Military Commissions Act, Senator Joe Lieberman and GOP Reps. Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons contributed to “undermining the moral values and legal traditions on which America was founded.”

Outlining the provisions and loopholes that allow for torture to continue, McTigue and Berman emphasize the need not to forget our collective moral standing because, while none of us may have individually tortured, kidnapped, or held others in secret, “our government has done all of these things in our names.” The group calls for voters to hold Lieberman, Shays, Johnson and Simmons “accountable for their lack of moral leadership on this issue” and concludes soberly: "Nothing less than the soul of our nation is at stake."

Election Central first reported on Reclaiming the Prophetic Voice when the group purchased a giant billboard to convey its message to drivers on the Connecticut interstate.

Few observers would ever have dreamed that GOP Rep. Ralph Hall's Texas seat is anything but completely safe. He's occupied it for more than a quarter-century. CQ Politics rates it "Safe Republican." And the district, which is around 100 miles from Hall's friend President Bush's Crawford ranch, is deep red: Seventy percent of its voters went for Bush in 2004. But now a new poll obtained by Election Central which was commissioned by Hall's Dem foe, history professor Glenn Melancon, suggests that Hall may be vulnerable after all. The poll finds that among likely voters Hall leads Melancon by seven points, 48%-41%. You can read the poll in our TPM Document Collection. More after the jump.

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This is a good one. GOP Rep. John Hostettler, who's floundering in the polls against Dem Brad Ellsworth, has just launched a radio ad claming Dems are plotting to advance the "homosexual agenda." As music sounding like something out of a Clint Eastwood movie soundtrack plays in the background, a narrator who's meant to be spoofing Dirty Harry intones about what will happen if Dems take the House. "Speaker Pelosi will then put in motion her radical plan to advance the homosexual agenda, led by Barney Frank, reprimanded by the House after paying for sex with a man who ran a gay brothel out of Congressman Frank's home," the narrator says. "I know what you're thinking. Is this true? Well, do you feel lucky? Go ahead, vote for Brad Ellsworth. Make Nancy Pelosi's day." Listen to the ad here.

David Beamer -- the father of the man killed aboard Flight 93 on 9/11 after saying "let's roll" to rally passengers -- has been very busy of late attacking Dems around the country on national security. Beamer appeared in TV ads funded by the right-wing Progress for America which featured the burning Twin Towers, and he recently called for the booting of John Murtha. Beamer's latest target? Antiwar Dem vet double amputee Tammy Duckworth. Beamer yesterday did a press conference with her GOP foe, Peter Roskam, at which he was careful to "honor" her service before slamming her as "dangerous." "The enemy doesn't have the word `surrender' in the dictionary," Beamer said. "We cannot have the word `retreat' in ours." View it here.

Joe Lieberman gets hit with a verbal/legal double slam, a Libertarian in Wyoming almost gets hit with the open palm of a Republican congresswoman, and “America’s team” gets hit with a devastating avalanche of Big Blue. Representative Henry Waxman (D-CA) issues new report: “Just 2 Weeks to Go Until Election Day.”

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So it looks as if the combination of GOP Rep. Chris Shays' recent gaffes and antiwar Dem Diane Farrell's hard push on Iraq has turned this race into an absolute dead heat. A new poll just out this morning from the Hartford Courant shows the race deadlocked at 43% apiece. That's a two point gain for Farrell and a three point drop for Shays from a poll in early October which found Shays leading 46%-41%. A key footnote: "The new poll shows unaffiliated voters shifting toward Farrell," the Courant says. "In three weeks, she has erased a 16-point deficit to pull almost even with the moderate Shays in unaffiliated support, 38 percent to 39 percent."

The National Republican Congressional Committee today sank $894,689.97 into dozens of House races across the country, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. About half of that money went into one race: Just over $400,000 was spent on the battle for Tom DeLay's House seat alone. Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee dropped a staggering$1,772,765.54 on negative ads against Missouri Dem Senate candidate Claire McCaskill.

A new SurveyUSA poll on the Illinois race for governor finds that a massive number of voters are not only undecided, but are sour enough on the two main party candidates that they're willing to back the little-known third-party challenger — a rarity in large-state elections. Eight percent are undecided, and an astonishing 14% are backing Green candidate Rich Witney. Meanwhile, both main candidates are well below 50% — incumbent Dem Rod Blagojevich has 44%, and GOPer Judy Baar Topinka has 34%. In short, Blagojevich may be reelected with well under 50% — while voters are dissatisfied with him, even more are down on the GOP.

More bad news for GOP Rep. Chris Shays: The Green Party candidate has pulled out of the race and thrown the Greens' support to Dem challenger Diane Farrell. The Stamford Advocate reports that a Green Party spokesperson explained the move by saying that the candidate wants it understood that his party is "not spoilers." In return, Farrell, who's negotiated with the Greens for weeks, agreed to push for Green participation in future debates. The Greens claim to deliver all of 1,300 votes -- less than half a perecent of the 2004 total -- but this race is so tight that those few could make a difference.

Given that Italian-American voters make up the Catholic swing vote in New Jersey, it's a bit surprising to see the crude anti-Italian-American caricature in this new ad being run against Dem Robert Menendez by the the Free Enterprise Fund Committee, a 527 organization founded by Club for Growth-founder Stephen Moore. The ad features a mobbed-up character talking about "our boy down in Washington, Bob Menendez" while the words "The Politicos" (get it? Sopranos) flash on the screen. The character, referring to the Feds' probe into Menendez's rental of offices to a Federally-funded group, continues: "Bada-bing, we're in it — but deep!" View it here.

The Newark Advocate, a right-leaning Ohio paper, endorsed GOP Rep. Bob Ney in 2004. But this year, it's refusing to back the GOP's handpicked successor to Ney, Joy Padgett, and instead is enthusiastically throwing its support to Dem Zack Space. The paper cites Padgett's questionable history of financial mishaps and dirty politics, arguing that her "past conduct presents huge warning signs." The full endorsement is here.

Dem Senator Robert Menendez has a new ad up which is definitely worth a look, because it does something we haven't seen in a Dem ad this cycle: It takes a key Republican attack line -- the idea that big things like our safety and freedom are "at stake" in this election -- and turns it on the GOP. The ad, aptly called "Big," unabashedly proclaims that big things are indeed "at stake," which is exactly why you should vote Democratic. Dems have been known to be overly timid about drawing contrasts with the GOP in big, bold terms, and we think this ad -- which may reflect confidence born of Menendez's growing lead in polls -- is pretty effective. View it here.

This morning's New York Sun reports on a mailing that the local Pennsylvania GOP sent out which accuses Dem Chris Carney of helping start the Iraq war -- and now Election Central has obtained a copy for your viewing pleasure. The basis of the mailing is that Carney was a Navy reservist who was called in to help produce an analysis of links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. Over at Tapped, Spencer Ackerman notes an obvious problem with this GOP attack: "The GOP generally believes this was, you know, a good thing. If they have a problem with Carney, they have a huge problem with the war, and a huge problem with Bush -- which for the GOP is well, a huge problem."

View the full mailing after the jump.

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For some time now, political observers have doubted that Dem John Yarmuth would be able to dislodge GOP Rep. Anne Northup, thanks to her ability to bring home Federal money and to the whacky columns alternative publisher Yarmuth has penned. But now CQ Politics says Northup's grip on her seat may be "loosening," and it's just changed its rating of the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican":

Kentucky Rep. Anne M. Northup’s strong fundraising skills, lengthy legislative record — and especially her efforts as an Appropriations Committee member to deliver federal funds home — have enabled her over a five-term career to defy at least a slight Democratic lean in her Louisville-based 3rd District.

Those same factors made her the favorite this year, as Democratic primary voters gambled on alternative newspaper publisher John Yarmuth, whose years of columns have provided campaign fodder for Northup and Republican allies.

But Yarmuth has campaigned undaunted, and the 3rd District is affected by the toxic political climate hurting Republicans nationally.

While polls have varied greatly in this volatile political environment, one released by Survey USA Oct. 19 raised eyebrows in the 3rd: It showed the contenders running neck-and-neck, with 48 percent of respondents saying they supported Yarmuth and 47 percent backing Northup. Yarmuth’s slight lead was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Full CQ analysis here.

Campaign stunts like these are usually pulled by long-shot challengers desperate for publicity — but this time, it was the work of 14-year GOP incumbent Deborah Pryce against Dem challenger Mary Jo Kilroy. The Columbus Dispatch reports that Pryce showed up unannounced at Kilroy's campaign headquarters on the back of a flatbed truck, flanked by supporters. Pryce then challenged Kilroy to a "sidewalk debate" on the Medicare D benefit. When Kilroy (who wasn't there) didn't respond, Pryce boasted: "Well, maybe she’ll show up another time." The implication was that the absent Kilroy was afraid to debate. But there's a small problem with this.

The problem is that it turns out that Pryce may have known beforehand that Kilroy wouldn't be there. A Kilroy staffer has told Election Central that Pryce's staff had previously issued the "sidewalk debate" challenge in advance — and had been told by Kilroy's staff that Kilroy wouldn't be in the office that day. So Pryce showed up at the Kilroy campaign offices to announce the challenge — even though her own staff knew Kilroy wouldn't be there. The above YouTube was produced by the Kilroy campaign.

GOP Rep. Jim Ryun's campaign has admitted that, contrary to past assertions, he did in fact know for some time that disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley lived across the street from him in Washington, D.C. The Capital Journal reports today that Ryun's campaign manager made the admission. Earlier this month, Ryun, a prominent Christian conservative, told a Capital Journal reporter that he'd only learned recently he lived across the street from Foley, as a way of arguing that he knew nothing about Foleygate. But that story fell apart after Capital Journal unearthed evidence that the two men had co-hosted a joint fundraiser in May -- on their block, during which donors visited both houses. Whoops! More after the jump.

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It looks like national Republicans may be giving up on both GOP Senate candidate Mike McGavick and GOP Senator Conrad Burns. McClatchy Newspapers reports today that neither the NRSC nor the RNC have booked any ad time for McGavick. Meanwhile, today's Montana Missoulian says that the NRSC hasn't spent a cent on ads for Burns since August 7. Not surprisingly, the NRSC in both cases denied giving up on its candidates.

This is a novel campaign tactic for a man to use against a woman: Call your opponent ugly. But that's exactly what GOP Senate candidate John Spencer has done to opponent Hillary Clinton, today's Daily News reports. The paper has an interview with Spencer in which he says Hillary was ugly before she got “millions of dollars” of “work” done. Speaking of Clinton, Spencer said, “You ever see a picture of her back then? Whew,” and “I don’t know why Bill married her.” Spencer added: “She look good now.” Bizarrely, he concluded: “I happen to like Hillary Clinton.” Interesting way of showing it.

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Joe Lieberman needs himself a new accountant, Mike DeWine wins! (the newspaper endorsement contest), and the Midterm Roundup defies the laws of space and time by watching every single Sunday morning show simultaneously. Just 1 day away from being 2 weeks away!

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One of the things that never ceases to amaze Election Central about the media's coverage of the midterms is the extent to which reporters and commentators are willing to repeat the claim that the GOP is on the verge of launching "new" diabolically potent political attacks or of "escalating" its political assaults on Dems. The implication is always that we haven't yet seen what the GOP's really got up its sleeve, so Dems should be very, very afraid. Case in point: today's Washington Post. More after the jump.

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Without much substantive news on a Sunday morning, the Midterm Roundup is forced to resort to inane non-jokes and stupid references to get itself through to the end. But if nothing else, the last item is worth a read.

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Here's a quick look at today's headlines:

* NJ-SEN: Dem Bob Mendendez pulls away from GOP candidate Tom Kean, Jr., in a new poll. This is key, because as the Washington Post reports in an extensive article on Dem Senate chances, it now means that with their widening leads in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island, Dems have to win only two (rather than all) of the three races now seen as key -- Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia -- in order to recapture Senate...

* PA-SEN, MO-SEN: Dem Bob Casey picks up the endorsements of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and the Philadelphia Inquirer, while Dem Claire McCaskill grabs the backing of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch...