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Uglier and uglier. The Wisconsin GOP is struggling to link Dem Steve Kagen -- the doctor-turned-candidate who's running against GOPer John Gard in a tight race -- to a convicted serial killer and child rapist. How is this link being made? "Only very tortuously and dishonestly," says Joel McNally of the Madison Capital Times. Full story here.
The NRCC sank $8,447,701.82 into around three dozen House races late yesterday, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. Most of the cash went to negative ads, mailers, and phone-banking (read: robocalls). As a general rule, the most whopping expenditures -- listed below -- obviously correspond to the races national GOP strategists are most worried about:
* IL-06: $870,711.84 for negative ads against Dem Tammy Duckworth
* PA-07: $690504.42 for negative ads against Dem Joe Sestak
* PA-08: $676781.17 for negative ads against Patrick Murphy
* IN-09: $470,648.98 for negative ads against Dem Baron Hill
* NM-01: $414,826.65 for negative ads against Dem Patricia Madrid
* MN-06: $351,599.48 for negative ads against Dem Patty Wetterling
* CO-07: $239,641.72 for negative ads against Dem Ed Perlumtter
* FL-16: $271,000.30 on ads for GOPer Joe Negron
For a more detailed breakdown, go here.
From today's Hartford Courant:
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman collected millions of dollars in campaign cash since his Democratic primary loss by tapping a lengthy list of major contributors to President Bush, dozens of Washington special interest groups and a lot of loyal Democrats....The effort to get Bush loyalists into Lieberman's camp was triggered by White House political guru Karl Rove's Aug. 8 phone call to the senator, just before Lieberman learned he would lose to Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Democratic Senate primary.
Rove did not promise any help, or offer any support...
That call, said Republican strategist Scott Reed, "was a signal to a lot of the Republican faithful to get engaged in the Lieberman race."...
[T]he Joe-needs-help message has been spreading for a while in Washington. Beginning with Rove's phone call, "a lot of Republicans around Washington who know [Lieberman] and like him spread the word," said Charles R. Black Jr., a longtime adviser to the Bush family.
Among the GOP donors who gave to Lieberman: Bush inner circle member Joseph Allbaugh, longtime Bush family friend Melvin Sembler, and "dozens of others from Texas" and other states. Lieberman campaign manager Sherry Brown told the paper that the campaign hadn't had contact with the White House, but she added of the GOP money: "We reached out and people reached out to us."
From this morning's Washington Post piece on Nancy Pelosi:
On his Web site, Majority Whip Roy Blunt calls the prospect of Pelosi becoming speaker "just plain scary" and says: "While Republicans fight the War on Terror . . . House Democrats plot to establish a Department of Peace."
Which gives us an opportunity to plug that glorious, oft-quoted headline from The Onion: "Bush: Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over."
The district of Dem Chet Edwards, which is home to President Bush's Crawford ranch and is one of the few Dem seats being eyed for a possible pickup by Republicans, now appears to be edging out of the GOP's reach. CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between Edwards and GOP challenger Van Taylor from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored." The GOP "early on touted Taylor as one of their strongest challengers," CQ says. "But...Republicans are concentrating heavily on shoring up their many vulnerable incumbents, and much less on targeting Democratic incumbents such as Edwards."
Nonpartisan analyist Stuart Rothenberg's latest race rankings are just out, and he's rated a staggering 30 House races as toss-ups -- and all but four of them are Republican-held seats. He rates 15 races as "pure" toss-ups, 12 as toss-ups that "tilt Democratic," and only three as toss-ups that "tilt Republican." His prediction for the House: "Democratic gain of 18-25 seats, though we think that a significantly larger Democratic gain, in excess of 30 seats, is quite possible." And his prediction for the Senate: "Democratic gains of 4-7 seats." View his list of House toss-ups after the jump.
Until now, most of the talk about vulnerable GOP incumbents in Indiana has focused on Reps Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel. But now CQ Politics says another Indiana GOP Rep. isn't completely safe: the Third District's Mark Souder. CQ has changed its rating of the race between Souder and Dem Tom Hayhurst from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored," saying that he "finds himself in his most competitive race in years." More from CQ after the jump.
Although the GOP would prefer to avoid the former scenario, almost all indications now point towards voters coming out in slightly higher-than-average midterm election percentages, at least in part to lash out at the party in power. The most reliable surveys show Democrats disproportionately engrossed in the elections, all the more reason a truly Herculean late identification and mobilization effort under the direction of Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman, and other wizardly GOP strategists would be needed to minimize Democrats' turnout edge. Of course, we don't want to make the mistake that some are committing by bringing down the curtain on the election too soon. Elections cannot be hurried; they must fully unwind on their own schedule, which this year ends November 7th.For the GOP, the Senate has always trailed behind the House in vulnerability to takeover. But in the last month, as Democrats have more likely than not wrested the House onto their side in this year's grand tug of war, the Senate has become more of a 50-50 proposition. The Crystal Ball will always have one eye firmly fixed on the House, where Democrats are poised to win 20 to 25 seats if not more. But this week, we turn our attention to the upper chamber, where five fundamentally close races will likely determine which party ends up on the short end of 51-49 (or in Democrats' case, the short end of 50-50, given Vice President Cheney's tie-breaking ability).
...
Readers will wonder why noted races in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are not in this group. In our view, without a small miracle, GOP Sens. Conrad Burns, Mike DeWine, and Rick Santorum are all now headed into early retirement. Likewise, Republican takeover opportunities in Nebraska, Washington, and elsewhere have faded, and Maryland's open seat remains only a glimmering hope for the GOP as Maryland's strong Democratic lean manifests itself closer to Election Day. Democrats would have to win four out of the "Fundamental Five" to get to 51 seats, but with only one of the five currently leaning ever-so-slightly to the GOP, it's not as if the chances of such a scenario could even be described as on a noticeable incline, let alone uphill.
His full analysis here.
Every now and then amid the stilted talking-points, choreographed events and airless speeches that are the stuff of modern political campaigns you get a moment of genuine, wrenching emotion. Such a moment came the other day in Illinois' sixth, where Dem vet double-amputee Tammy Duckworth is battling GOPer Peter Roskam. At an event where Duckworth was speaking, a woman stood to share with Duckworth and the audience her thoughts about her brother, a soldier who's heading out for a second tour in Iraq. As the woman describes it, she was quickly overwhelmed with emotion and broke down and cried. Duckworth made her way over to the woman on her artificial legs and gave her a hug.
As Election Central reported the other day, the pastor at the Twin Cities-area mega-church Living Word Christian Center, Mac Hammond, may have violated IRS regulations when he endorsed GOP House candidate Michele Bachman during an event at his church. The church has since claimed that the institution didn't understand IRS regs dictating a separation between church and politics. But we looked at the video of the event again — and it seems clear that not only did the pastor know exactly what he was doing, he explicitly told anybody who might support such separation, "you need to get saved." More after the jump.
This is a milestone: Today, for the first time in this election cycle, CQ Politics is projecting that more Democratic House candidates than Republicans are on track to win their races. CQ editor Bob Benenson confirmed the change — and added that more shifts are coming. CQ is listing 209 Dems on track to win as of this writing, while projecting that 208 Republicans are headed for victory. The remaining 18 seats are listed as "No Clear Favorite" — and since all 18 are held by Republicans, it's yet another sign of the Democratic Party's mounting advantage.
GOP Rep. Geoff Davis -- a member of the party which claims to be the one grasping the importance of the Iraq war -- yesterday revealed that he didn't have any idea whatsoever how many U.S. soldiers had died in October. The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that when he was asked how many had died this month at a debate with Dem challenger Ken Lucas, Davis replied: "I believe it is 17." The questioner rejoined : "It's more like 71." Lucas pounced, saying Davis "minimizes what's going on" in Iraq. And then, referring to the fact that 17 and 71 are mirror images of each other, Lucas quipped that Davis is "dyslexic."
In another sign that the political environment continues to shift favorably for Dems, six House races have suddenly moved from out-of-play likely Republican victories to competitive contests in the last week alone, according to a quick analysis of race rankings by nonpartisan experts done by Election Central. The analysists, CQ Politics and Cook Political Report, have since Monday shifted their rankings of the six either to "Leans Republican" or "No Clear Favorite," indicating they are now in play for Dems. These shifts come after a more extensive Election Central analysis a week ago found that since Foleygate broke in late September, at least 29 races moved towards Dems. Our list of newly-competitive races after the jump.
A day after a new poll came out showing that once-flailing NRCC chief Tom Reynolds had retaken the lead over Dem challenger Jack Davis, the NRCC has opened fire on Reynolds with a new, hard-hitting spot. Script: "When Tom Reynolds had the opportunity to give our soldiers a $1,500 bonus, he voted no. `No' to a bonus for our troops, but `yes' to six difference pay raises for himself. Tom Reynolds, `no' to our troops, `yes' to himself. Just the kind of bad judgment we’ve come to expect from him."
The Capitol Confidental blog notes that this is a pretty standard DCCC attack ad that's been used in other New York races. At the same time, though, it contains a hard-hitting, albeit somewhat vague, Foleygate dig in the "no judgement" line. And any DCCC help will be welcomed by the Davis camp, which is getting badly outspent by Reynolds and the tons of cash he's getting from national Republicans.
In 2004 President Bush got 55% of the vote in this district in northeastern Wisconsin, leading many to expect that GOP nominee John Gard, an experienced state lawmaker, wouldn't have too much trouble defeating neophyte candidate and allergist Steve Kagen. But now CQ Politics has changed its rating of the race, which has now become one of Wisconsin's hottest contests, from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." More from CQ after the jump.
In their final debate last night, GOP Rep. Chris Shays and Dem challenger Diane Farrell found themselves in solid agreement: Both said they don't think the Republicans should be running the country anymore. Today's Hartford Courant reports:
"I don't think the Republican Party has earned the right to maintain the majority, nor do I think the Democrats have," Shays said.
Shays has in the past said that Bush “has no credibility” on Iraq. He's called on Donald Rumsfeld to resign. And he's said that the GOP leadership “has been so terribly wrong on so many policies." Every day, it seems, Shays comes closer and closer to complete agreement with Farrell.
So how much is the GOP really going to spend between now and election day in a last-ditch effort to prevent their majority from slipping away? And which party -- the GOP or the Dems -- is going to spend more in the home stretch? Depends on which Republican official is doing the talking. The ever-supremely-confident Karl Rove told the Washington Times on Wednesday that the GOP's huge financial advantage will enable the party to carry the day. But in today's New York Times, RNC chair Ken Mehlman is quoted saying that the Dems will "outspend" the GOP. Who's telling the truth? More after the jump.
There's a new poll out from SurveyUSA which says that NRCC chief Tom Reynolds — who'd slipped far behind in recent polls against Dem Jack Davis due to Foleygate — has retaken the lead, 49%-46%. As The Daily Politics notes, "Reynolds has gained 4 points and Davis has lost 4 points" since two weeks ago." Is Davis' lack of campaign skills to blame? A profile of Davis in today's Washington Post suggests the answer may be Yes. The 73-year old Davis says he doesn't "see the point" of "wasting time going around campaigning" and has no events scheduled. Meanwhile, Reynolds has tons of money and is fighting back — hard. Could Davis be blowing it? Read the Post piece and decide for yourself.
Here's a measure of just how ferocious the Dem assault on the GOP's control of the House has been of late: The NRCC spent an astounding $39.1 million in just the last seven weeks in 59 races across the country, according to a new macro-analysis of spending just released by CQ Politics. Yep, that's more than $5 million per week in the seven-week period analyzed by CQ, which stretched from Sept. 1 through yesterday. And get this: According to CQ's analysis, more than 90 percent of the money -- $36.5 million -- went to 47 districts where the GOP is playing defense. More details on the GOP's flood of cash after the jump.
A day after trailing gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell spread unsubstantiated rumors linking Dem frontrunner Ted Strickland to pedophiles, the Blackwell campaign is today reaching even higher: It's pushing new rumors that Strickland is gay and took a trip with his "boy toy" to Italy. The Blackwell campaign today sent out a video of Wednesday night's Hannity and Colmes program on Fox News. On the show, guest Bill Cunningham -- an Ohio talk show host -- accused Strickland of taking a trip to Italy with an aide in 1998 "in order to enjoy a little fun" with a "26-year-old boy toy." Our screen grab shows Blackwell's campaign web site promoting video of the accusations. More after the jump.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has just released its September fundraising numbers, and it's boasting that it has outraised the vaunted Republican National Committee money machine. The DSCC says it raised $13.6 million last month, and has a total on hand of $23.6 million -- more than double the $8.8 million it had on hand at the same point in 2004. The DSCC has steadily outraised its GOP counterpart, the NRSC. But today's number also appears to top that of the far more effective RNC, which earlier today issued a release saying it had raised "over $13 million." Nonetheless, today's numbers come amid some discord in Dem circles over the alleged failure of some Senate Dems to chip in to help the cause. More soon.
See GOP Rep. Sue Kelly run. See Sue Kelly run from a debate with Dem challenger John Hall. See Sue Kelly run from questions about her role in Foleygate. See Sue Kelly run -- literally run -- from local news WRNN-TV reporters. See Sue Kelly run from all those things -- in our video below.
If you don't want Al Qaeda to attack us again, then vote Republican. That's the message in a lurid new web ad that the Republican National Committee has released today. The ad shows footage of terrorists training set to the ticking of a time bomb. After flashing quotes from Osama and other terrorists promising doom to America, the ad concludes: "These are the stakes. Vote November 7th." Most interesting bit: After the ad ends, it flashes a link to click if you want to "vote early" -- an obvious bid to harvest impulsive, fear-driven votes. (See third screen grab below.) View the ad here.
A new ad from Dem Patricia Madrid bashes GOP Rep. Heather Wilson ferociously hard on both Iraq and Foleygate. Script: "Heather Wilson admitted helpong George Bush cover up the truth about Iraq. She was on the Armed Services Committee and knew the intelligence was wrong from the beginning. And Heather Wilson took more money from child predator Mark Foley than anyone else in Congress. And as one of just three members on the page oversight board, she did nothing while Mark foley preyed on children."
While Madrid tries to sink Wilson ever deeper into the Foleygate quicksand, Wilson is thrashing around to extricate herself by accusing Madrid, who is currently state attorney general, of not securing jail time for a 41-year-old man bagged for attemtpted child predation, as TPM noted yesterday. But Wilson appears to be sinking nonetheless. The last three polls of the race show Madrid with sizeable leads.
Lois Murphy has picked up the endorsement of the Allentown Morning Call, in her race for Pennsylvania’s 6th district. The paper originally endorsed her opponent, and current incumbent Jim Gerlach in 2004, but has switched over to Murphy’s side this time around.According to the Morning Call, “Two years ago, we recommended the candidacy of Mr. Gerlach, a congressional freshman who previously had an impressive record as a state representative. But this time, after watching the incumbent's performance in office for two more years, we must give the edge to Mrs. Murphy…Though Rep. Gerlach has tried to depict her as a liberal, Mrs. Murphy is a deficit hawk who believes Washington should be a pay-as-you-go government…The Morning Call recommends the election of Lois Murphy in the 6th Congressional District.”
The paper recommends her on the basis of her support for a wide range of government reforms from earmarks to the disclosure of lobbyist connections.
Game on: Yesterday the DCCC pumped a staggering $11,859,818.68 into 32 races in 17 states, new filings with the FEC show. Here's what's noteworthy in the Dems' money drop:
* Notably, almost half of the cash — $5,042,707.45 — was spent on three House races in Pennsylvania alone, on ads targeting incumbents Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Mike Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, the DCCC spent another $107,185.28 against incumbent Republican Don Sherwood.
* The DCCC made its first-ever buy — $332,601.56 — for ads targeting GOP candidate Michele Bachmann, who is fighting a challenge from surging Dem Patty Wetterling.
* Some $778,546.77 was pumped into three races in Ohio, targeting GOP Reps. Steve Chabot, Deborah Pryce and Joy Padgett.
* And $649,694.19 went to three races in Indiana, targeting GOP Reps. Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel.
The race between GOP Rep. Jon Porter and Dem Tessa Hafen, the former aide to Harry Reid, hasn't been seen as a competitive one, even though the district was an evenly-split battleground between George Bush and John Kerry in 2004. Polls in September showed Porter with a sizeable lead, and CQ Politics has rated it as "Republican Favored." But new evidence is emerging that the race isn't necessarily a lock for Porter. A poll recently released by Dem firm Momentum Analysis shows Hafen within four points of Porter, 41%,-37%. What's more, the NRCC dropped nearly 10 grand on a poll in the district this week -- something the GOP wouldn't do unless there was at least some concern over Porter's seat. So count this race on our list of ones to watch.
Eastern Pennsylvania has been a key battleground in the struggle for control of the House -- witness the DCCC's massive expenditure yesterday targeting GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. But now the contested terrain is spreading to Western Pennsylvania, too, reports CQ Politics. As a result, CQ has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep. Melissa Hart and Dem challenger Jason Altmire from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." More of CQ's analysis after the jump.
National Dems appear to be getting serious about taking out GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. The DCCC yesterday pumped a huge amount into the race, spending $1,348,073.77 on an ad campaign targeting Fitzpatrick, new records filed with the Federal Election Commission show. To get a sense of just how nasty the ad war has gotten between Fitzpatrick and Dem challenger Patrick Murphy, check out these dueling ads from the two camps. The most recent poll showed Murphy with a small edge over Fitzpatrick; this latest DCCC money drop suggests that Dems think they can put this one away.
Joe Lieberman gets bombarded on 4 sides, Menendez and Kean keep it unclean, Curt Weldon plays the coquette, and a big legal decision is handed down in Foley town. Gotta Round up to get down!
Dem Chris Murphy, who's battling to unseat GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson, claims he's rejecting calls from the DCCC to run more negative ads. The Greater Danbury News-Times reports that Murphy addressed the DCCC's purported demand as follows (emphasis added): "Have we run ads critical of Nancy Johnson? Absolutely. But I am proud of the tone our campaign has taken...I want to sleep at night." The DCCC, of course, may be pressing Murphy out of unease about Johnson's ads, which are somewhat less than restrained. Recent polls show the race is too close to call.
Incoming! Via Ben Smith of The Daily Politics, it looks as if the Republican National Committee is rushing in to bail out NRCC chief Tom Reynolds. The RNC has a new ad attacking Reynolds's Dem foe by saying that people should get ready for "higher prices" because "Jack Davis wants tarrifs on many of the products you buy." It seems the RNC is referring to Davis' call for retaliatory tariffs on goods from China -- a position awfully similar to a bill recently co-sponsored by GOP Senator Lindsey Graham. As Smith notes, it's Davis's message which "clearly connects with people in Buffalo." View it here.
GOP Rep. J.D. Hayworth made a curious claim Tuesday during a debate with Dem Harry Mitchell, who's been gaining on the incumbent in recent polls. Discussing Iraq, Hayworth told the audience, "if we abandon Iraq, what our enemies refer to as the central front in the war on terror, we are inviting a raft of problems..." (emphasis added) At first glance, this statement seems like the average GOP talking point on Iraq, but Hayworth does something kind of new here. He directly attributes the phrase "the central front in the war on terror" to the enemies of America, though it is actually terminology popularized by the Bush administration, which they have been using since at least Sept. 7, 2003. Unless Hayworth is referring to the Bush administration as "our enemies," his reference to the phrase seems to be factually challenged. More after the jump.
This is interesting. GOP Rep. John Doolittle -- who regularly attacks Dem foe Charlie Brown for being a member of the ACLU, which has defended child sex predators -- himself testified on behalf of a friend who was accused of sexual assault, possibly helping him get a reduced sentence. And the friend subsequently committed sexual assault again. The Sacramento Bee and the L.A. Times's political blog both report today that in 1987, Doolilttle served as a key character witness for friend David Roy Phipps, a dentist accused of assaulting six patients in his chair. He got three years' probation. In 1994, Phipps assaulted another patient, the Times reports. More after the jump.
Thanks to Foleygate, the GOP is now having to expend major resources to defend Tom Reynolds's seat. Today's FEC filing shows a one-day expenditure of $229360.60 by the Republican National Committee against Dem nominee Jack Davis — the first expenditure in the race by the RNC during this whole cycle.
GOP Senator Conrad Burns is claiming that President Bush has a plan for Iraq but that he isn't willing to reveal it. The Billings-Gazette reports today that Burns made the remark at a debate with Dem challenger Jon Tester yesterday. The paper says that Burns said of Tester (emphasis added): “He says our president don’t have a plan. I think he’s got one. He’s not going to tell everyone in the world." And when Tester observed that there was no plan, Burns replied: "We’re not going to tell you what our plan is, Jon, because you’re just going to go out and blow it." More after the jump.
A group of wealthy Wall Street-types is raising last minutes funds for threatened moderate Republicans like Chris Shays, Rob Simmons, Nancy Johnson, and Deborah Pryce. "Republicans Who Care," lead by executives from places like Goldman Sachs and Chase Manhattan, had raised $385,000 as of September 30th and plans to spend everything it can to help fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republicans hold their seats. The group was initially founded to counteract the effect of the anti-moderate Club for Growth and, as Ari Berman at the Nation points out, its name begs the question: "Does that mean that the rest of the Republicans are members of 'Republicans Who Don't Care'?"
Robert Novak's predition today is that Dems will win 20 seats in the House, and four in the Senate:
With hopes of the late comeback faded, the Republican strategy has changed from that of a quarterback on a fourth-quarter come-from-behind mission to that of an overwhelmed emergency medical technician performing triage on several dying patients. The only thought now is to minimize losses by plugging whatever holes can be plugged. Late decisions have to be made about who lives and who dies. The GOP has to decide where it can win, and it cannot afford to waste time or resources on those who cannot be saved. At this point, the best indication of how races are going is where the money is being spent.If the election were held today, Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives. Republicans -20, Democrats +20.
As for the Senate, Novak predicts four Dem pickups: The seats held by GOP incumbents Mike DeWine, Rick Santorum, Conrad Burns and Lincoln Chafee. Novak's full analysis here.
Much of the coverage of GOP candidate Michele Bachmann's now-notorious event at a megachurch has focused on the potentially-illegal endorsement she received from a pastor. But there's another element of her appearance that has passed unnoticed: She expounded on the extent to which she communicates directly with God about her campaign. Bachmann revealed that she decided to run for Congress after she and her husband got the go-ahead directly from God: "And we said 'Lord, is this what you want? Is this Your will?'" God's answer: Yes. More after the jump.
As Curt Weldon’s troubles continue to mount, his campaign has released an ad that takes a predictable route and warns that if elected Joe Sestak would raise taxes. Echoing a theme raised in one of his direct mailers, the ad hits Sestak for spending, “thirty years away from our region.” Where has he been these past thirty years? Serving in the US Navy, not surprisingly the ad does not mention this fact. Watch the ad here.
GOP Rep. Chris Shays is gonna take plenty of heat for this one. At a debate this morning at the Stamford Marriott with antiwar Dem challenger Diane Farrell, Shays opined that we should have invaded Iraq "sooner" -- and not for WMDs. According to a transcript supplied by the Farrell campaign, Shays said:
Now let me just tell you something about the reality. We're there. And if we made mistakes we're still there. In my judgment we should have gone in sooner but not for weapons of mass destruction.
View Shays' remark below:
Shays didn't elaborate on this view. His remark came amid a long diatribe which included a scorching attack on Bush's handling of the war. View a fuller transcript after the jump.
GOP Rep. Chris Shays has done it again. At a debate last night with Dem anti-war challenger Diane Farrell, Shays said:
As today's Washington Post notes, Dem strategists are divided right now over whether to dig deep into their pockets to fund uphill but somewhat competitive races. Well, here's such a contest. CQ Politics has just changed the rating of the race between 12-year GOP Rep. Gil Gutknecht and Dem challenger Tim Walz, a retired command sergeant, from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." More after the jump.
Outside groups, including both national parties and special interests, are spending almost $1 million more in Indiana's three competitive House races than the actual candidates. An examination of FEC filings by the Indianapolis Star reveals that the most independent expenditures are in the 8th District, where GOP Rep. John Hostettler is struggling to maintain his seat against Dem Brad Ellsworth. Democratic groups have spent $2.6 million in the district compared to $1.9 million by Republicans. Liberal groups are also outspending conservatives in the 2nd District race between GOP Rep. Chris Chocola and Dem Joe Donnelly. In contrast, GOP backers are dominating the 9th District battle between Republican Mike Sodrel and Dem Baron Hill. All three races are in the top 15 of the National Journal's rankings for likely seat changes this year.
Did a Michelle Bachmann event at a church violate IRS regs? Several days ago, state Sen. Bachmann, who's battling Dem challenger Patty Wetterling for the open seat, spoke at local megachurch Living Word Christian Center. At the event, Bachmann received the public endorsement of their pastor — in possible violation of IRS regulations. Click here for video of the endorsement. More on the possible violation after the jump.
Right now the GOP and House candidate Peter Roskam are betting that attacking Dem Tammy Duckworth on immigration is their last-ditch route to victory. Both the NRCC and the Roskam campaign are running ads claiming Duckworth -- who maintains a slim lead in polls -- supports "amnesty" and Social Security for illegals.
Today, however, the Duckworth camp went on the air with a new counterattack: An ad starring Barack Obama. He says: "Tammy and I both support John McCain's plan, which does not include amnesty or benefits for illegal immigrants." By associating Duckworth with two Senators with a "leadership" aura, the Duckworth camp hopes to quell any doubts about whether she has the heft to be effective in Congress. View it here. Update: This is the Web version of the ad. A shorter one is on the air.
Barack Obama has lent his star power to the campaign of Dem veteran and double-amputee Tammy Duckworth. Obama's ad is meant to counter the withering assaults on Duckworth which have been coming of late from the NRCC and Roskam, who are claiming that Duckworth supports "amnesty" and giving Social Security to illegal immigrants
Two political experts are claiming that GOP Rep. Chris Shays -- who's committed a series of eye-popping gaffes of late -- is cracking under the pressure of Dem Diane Farrell's tough challenge. The experts, Connecticut politics professors Gary Rose and John Orman, are quoted in an article in the Connecticut Post today speculating on the root causes of Shays' missteps. Rose: "The intensity of the campaign is starting to wear on him. It is a side of Congressman Shays that is new to the people of the district." Orman: "It is out of character for him, but maybe he felt Farrell is moving ahead and the pressure got to him for a moment." Shays' most recent misstep was to refer to what happened at Abu Ghraib as a "sex ring."
Harold Ford, Jr's newest ad,"Big Issue," places Iraq at centerstage in this key Senate race. Opening with footage of GOP opponent Bob Corker declaring to "stay the course" juxtaposed over images of violence in Iraq, Ford uses the recently declassified National Intelligence Estimate -- it's first appearance in a campaign ad that we've seen -- to aggressively argue that "America should always be strong, but we've got to be smart and honest too. We need a new direction to win this fight." Check out the video here.
Dem House candidate Steve Kagen has just uncorked a new ad blasting GOP rival John Gard as a "professional politician" — with a Pinnochio nose. His nose grows with each broken promise alleged by the Kagen campaign — and the effect of seeing a powerful state pol (Gard is Assembly Speaker) depicted as a little wooden boy is just a bit off-putting. "He voted with the insurance companies to make healthcare more expensive. Now he says the opposite," the narrator says. Nose grows.. "No wonder John Gard has been called one of the most corrupt politicians in Madison." Nose grows again. We've seen this character before." Recent polling has shown Kagen with a narrow lead in this potential pickup for Democrats. View the ad below.
Joe Lieberman displays his trademark inspiring/nauseating nonpartisan magnanimity, Michael Steele attracts a 1-2 punch of the worst the sports world has to offer, and the Midterm Roundup shows you the money! It’s official – under 3 weeks to go.
Dem Sherrod Brown's lead is growing. The new New York Times poll just out tonight has Brown leading GOP Senator Mike DeWine by 14 points, 48%-34%. More in the morning.
The Federal probe bearing down on GOP Rep. Curt Weldon is rapidly eroding his reelection hopes. CQ Politics has just changed the rating of the race between Dem Joe Sestak and Weldon from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." It's the second CQ ratings downgrade of Weldon's prospects in less than a week:
The added difficulty for Weldon is that the suggestion of a possible scandal comes at a time when most of the voting public already has a dim view of the Republican-controlled Congress, and when public corruption has emerged as an issue in the national campaign for control of the House...The ratings shift comes on the heels of CQPolitics.com on Friday moving the race to No Clear Favorite. That change was unrelated to the allegations that resurfaced Friday — and was implemented mainly because of the strength of Sestak’s campaign.
Moreover, Weldon trailed in remaining cash on hand, with $1.1 million left to spend to $1.6 million for Sestak.
CQ's full analysis here. For extensive TPM coverage of Weldon's legal travails, check out TPMmuckraker.
CQ Politics has just downgraded the Ohio Senate race between GOP incumbent Mike DeWine and Dem challenger Sherrod Brown, moving it from "No clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":
This is a breakthrough for Brown, who is running on a liberal-leaning but populist economic platform and his strong opposition to President Bush’s policies on the war in Iraq...It is a mark of how terrible the political environment is for Ohio Republicans that they are unable to exploit Brown’s voting record. The Republicans have focused on what they argue are major deficiencies in Brown’s record on national security issues and taxes. But Brown has focused on the state’s hemorrhaging of manufacturing jobs and his opposition to trade pacts that he says have contributed to economic dislocations.
Including DeWine, CQ has now rated three GOP incumbent Senators as underdogs. The other two are Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
The "drive-by" media will get a kick out of this one. A group of religious activists has purchased a giant billboard on the interstate for a massive ad accusing four Connecticut incumbents of voting for torture. The Associated Press reports that the group, a self-described statewide group of religious leaders called Reclaiming the Prophetic Voice, bought the space to target Senator Joe Lieberman and GOP Reps. Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons. While each candidate disputed the ad, the AP notes that all four voted for the controversial Military Commissions Act of 2006, which allows the President to "authorize aggressive interrogation methods that might otherwise be seen as illegal by international courts." In other words, torture.
Get this — Roy Blunt, the number three Republican in the House, is telling Florida residents in Mark Foley's district that if they want the House to fund a long-sought cleanup of a local lagoon, they should vote for GOP candidate Joe Negron. The Palm Beach Post quotes Blunt, the House majority whip, as saying the following: "I think it will make a difference if Joe Negron is the guy ... as we look at these projects we've talked about." The NRCC's blog actually boasted about Blunt's remarks. Such talk sounds more like a leader of a party with a secure majority than one which may be three weeks away from being in the minority.
Carol Sherwood, the wife of imperiled GOP Rep. Don Sherwood, has sent a letter to constituents this weekend that all but accuses Dem Chris Carney of enjoying inflicting pain on the Sherwood family. "Perhaps Carney gets some pleasure out of hurting our family, or maybe that's what he thinks will make him a winner," the letter reads (emphasis added). The letter appears to be a last-ditch effort to get Carney to stop making a campaign issue out of allegations that Sherwood had a five-year-affair with a younger woman and abused his mistress. Sherwood spokesman Jake O'Donnell told the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader that the letter didn't reflect "campaign strategy." But it was paid for by the Sherwood campaign and sent mainly to registered Republicans in his District.
A new ad by Dem candidate blasts GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave over her preoccupation with social-conservative issues. "She said that her gay-marriage agenda is the most important issue facing the United States of America...Are you kidding me?" View the ad below.
Okay, so I just spoke with a Democratic strategist who is in regular contact with the local Ohio networks, and he's shed some more light on the question of how much the national GOP will -- or won't -- spend to save sinking GOP Senator Mike DeWine. Ever since the New York Times reported that the national party was divesting in the race after concluding that Dem Sherrod Brown is on track to victory, both the NRSC and the RNC have denied that they were pulling out. But our source gave us some new info which suggests the GOP may be preparing to scale back in Ohio big time. He tells us the NRSC has no more air time reserved, and that the RNC has only paid for a fraction of its planned ad expenditure, leaving room to shift most RNC resources alloted to ads in Ohio to other races. More after the jump.
The Connecticut press today is buzzing with talk about the startling performance by GOP candidate Alan Schlesinger at yesterday's debate. So we thought we'd bring you a highlights video so you can see him for yourself. Schlesinger grabbed yesterday's opportunity to set himself apart in a big way — whether for good or for ill remains to be seen. Against the backdrop of his more calm and restrained frontrunners, Schlesinger directed nearly all his attacks at Joe Lieberman — his main competitor for GOP votes. Schlesinger played an almost Howard Beale-like role, speaking loudly and proudly on one point after another. View the video here. A rundown of Connecticut press reaction after the jump.
The outbreak of Foleygate two weeks ago sparked a massive shift of mid-term momentum in favor of Dems, but the GOP's House candidates still hold the advantage when it comes to cold, hard campaign cash. Now that campaigns across the country have filed their third quarter fundraisng numbers, we tallied up all the races to see who will have more financial firepower in the remaining three weeks until election day. We looked at the breakdown at Politcal Money Line of the National Journal's top 60 most competitive House races. The final total? The GOP candidate has the cash advantage in 41 out of the 60 races -- more than two-thirds of the contests. Here's some more on this. And check out our full list of races and their cash breakdown after the jump.
Did a speech by GOP candidate Michelle Bachmann, a former tax lawyer, endanger the tax status of the church in which she spoke? That's what Keith Olbermann said last night when he named Bachmann the "Worse Person In The World"on Countdown for the speech, in which Bachmann declared "God then called me to run for the United States Congress." Olbermann claims the speech, combined with the pastor's endorsement of Bachmann, may have cost the church it's non-profit tax breaks. Election Central placed a call to the Minnesota Secretary of State's election office earlier today about whether the church's status is in peril, but have yet to hear back. We'll let you know when we do. Here's the Countdown clip. Video of Bachmann in all her unvarnished glory after the jump.
GOP Rep. Sue Kelly, who's facing a tougher-than-expected challenge from former rock star and Dem candidate John Hall, boiled over with indignance at a debate yesterday between the two candidates. Today's Times Herald-Record reports that after Hall made his first reference to Foleygate, Kelly exploded:
"I just can't believe that you would accuse me, a wife, a mother, a grandmother, a teacher of doing something that would harm children," Kelly said. "I have fought for children all of my life! You have no shame!"
Kelly's been on the defensive since Foleygate broke because she headed the board which oversees the page program; a recent poll shows Hall within four points of Kelly, and CQ Politics recently downgraded the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." View Kelly's eruption here.
Dem House candidate Patty Wetterling -- the children's advocate whose profile was boosted immeasurably by Foleygate -- has expanded her lead over GOP Rep. Michelle Bachmann to eight points. A new Star Tribune poll finds that Wetterling is leading Bachmann 48%-40%. Previous polls have shown various results, usually finding either a dead heat or small leads for one or the other candidate. Says the Trib: "Those who said they know a lot about the Foley story, and those who said that it was affecting their vote favored Wetterling by a significant margin."
CT-SEN: Proud to be Back as the Midterm Roundup’s Lead Item of the Day!
Hoooo! It’s been too long. Ned Lamont, Joe Lieberman, and yes even you Alan Schlesinger you old knave you – get back up here you guys. It’s time to shine the spotlight back on the original news kings of the 2006 midterm elections. That’s right, it’s the CT-SEN race. Don’t call it a comeback!Dem Sherrod Brown appears to be pulling away from GOP Senator Mike DeWine. A new Quinnipiac poll released today shows Brown leading DeWine by 12 points, 53%-41%. The new poll -- whose spread dwarfs that of most recent polls -- comes amid a big disupte over whether national GOP strategists have decided to pull resources out of the race. Yesterday's Times reported that the RNC was pulling out funds, while analyst Stuart Rothenberg countered that the RNC was sinking more than $1 million into the race. Yesterday Election Central spoke to a Brown adviser who was skeptical that the RNC was really yanking funds. More on this later.
This is interesting. Idaho's First District is a reliably conservative one where President Bush pulled 68% of the vote in 2004. But now CQ Politics says a GOP victory there isn't assured: It's changed its rating of the race for GOP Rep. Butch Otter's seat between GOP candidate Bill Sali and Dem Larry Grant from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored." CQ says: "Sali is running on a staunchly social conservative, limited government platform that ought to play well with the typical Idaho 1 voter. But Sali’s blunt personality and history of clashing with colleagues and leaders in the Idaho legislature have given some voters pause about sending him to Washington." The DCCC sees the contest as one of its "emerging races" -- contests where Dems have an unexpected shot in typically Republican strongholds.
Check this out: We have two ads from the same race for you below. The first is from GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. It uses an appearance on Harball by Dem challenger Patrick Murphy to paint him as indecisive about Iraq -- even though Murphy served there. The clip shows Murphy failing under questioning from Chris Matthews to say whether or not he would have voted for the war. You can view it here. The second ad (which is after the jump) is a response from Murphy. It touts his service in Iraq, and quotes Murphy slamming Fitzpatrick for questioning his service. Both these ads are hard hitting and depart from the usual cliches of negative advertising. Do you think Murphy effectively countered Fitzpatrick's attack? We'd love to hear from you.
House Maj. Whip Roy Blunt promised that the House GOP would fund an important lagoon cleanup — on the condition that the locals vote for who he wants, the Palm Beach Post reports. "I think it will make a difference if Joe Negron is the guy ... as we look at these projects we've talked about," Blunt is quoted saying. This sort of heavy-handedness — boasted about on the NRCC blog — is typical of a party with a secure majority, not a party whose grip is increasingly questionable.
Both Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont scored heavy blows in today's debate. Lamont persuasively invoked the same attack line Lieberman used 18 years ago against then-Senator Lowell Weicker — that the incumbent had served too long with too few results. A key Lamont goal was to broaden the case against Lieberman beyond Iraq, and he successfully did that today, saying Lieberman had failed Connecticut on various fronts. Lieberman, meanwhile, continued successfully speaking to GOP voters in terms unlikely to alienate the Dems who still support him. And he came across as convincing when he made his oft-stated case that there's no reason strong enough to toss someone with his experience. Whose version of Lieberman's record will voters believe? View highlights here. (Editor's note: The video isn't a real-time exchange; it's a series of moments strung together.)
GOP Congressman Robert Simmons is emphasizing liberal positions in an effort to fight off Democratic challenger Joe Courtney in one of the most important races in the country. In an interview with Connecticut newspaper the Journal Inquirer, Simmons "stressed" his disagreements with the Bush Administration and GOP Congressional leadership and argued that he is, "just for starters," pro-labor, pro-environment, and pro-choice. He also criticized plans presented by military leadership to maintain troop levels in Iraq. When asked what he would tell constituents who worry about the GOP maintaining control of the House, he answered: "I don't want to answer that question."
FEC filings released today show that Democratic challenger Nancy Boyda kept pace with GOP incumbent Jim Ryun in fundraising for the third quarter. Election Central reported last week that Kansas's 2nd district may be a surprisingly competitive race due to Boyda's strong grassroots campaigning and a difficult environment for the GOP. Despite running in a heavily GOP state and district and rejecting help from her national party, Boyda managed to raise raised $148 k last quarter, just shy of Ryun's $157 k. Of course, all of this came before Vice President Cheney's visit to the district last week that raised $200k for the Ryun campaign.
The San Jose Mercury News, a regular critic of GOP Rep. Richard Pombo's environmental policies -- or, more accurately, his opposition to any and all of them -- endorsed Pombo's Dem opponent Jerry McNerney today in a brutally hard-hitting assault on the seven-term incumbent which tells everyone to vote for his opponent:
The case for why Democrats and Republicans should support McNerney's candidacy in the sprawling 11th Congressional District goes far beyond Pombo's desire to sell off national parks, drill for oil off the Pacific Coast and make the Endangered Species Act extinct.Pombo is a national disgrace to the Republican Party. His unseemly connections to scandal-ridden lobbyist Jack Abramoff should be an embarrassment to all Republicans. A Washington watchdog group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, put him on its list of the 13 most corrupt Republicans and Democrats in Congress. And his questionable connections to oil companies, gambling interests and mining companies have been well documented.
It's past time that mainstream Republicans let Pombo know there isn't a place for his kind of politics in their Big Tent....
Pombo is such a bad role model that even Pete McCloskey, Pombo's challenger in the primary election, couldn't bring himself to endorse his fellow Republican this fall. Declaring "enough is enough," McCloskey said he will vote for McNerney on Nov. 7. So should all voters in the 11th Congressional District.
Recent polls of the race have found it too close to call. The full editorial is here.
CQ Politics has taken a look at all its ratings changes in the past week and concuded that a "Donkey stampede" is in the making:
The trend against the GOP is illustrated in changes that CQPolitics.com made to its ratings last week (Oct. 9-13). Congressional Quarterly’s free elections Web site altered its forecasts on one Senate race and 17 House races — and in all but one case, the analysis showed the Democratic candidate gaining ground over his or her Republican opponent...In the House, the Republicans’ projected advantage, which heading into October still exceeded the majority point of 218 seats, has shrunk to 209 — just one seat more than the 208 projected to the Democrats. And all of the 18 seats currently rated as No Clear Favorite are currently held by Republicans.
CQ added that "more ratings changes are expected over the coming days." Oops, here's one already, albeit in a governor's race: CQ has just changed its rating of the Colorado gubernatorial race between GOP candidate Bob Beauprez and Dem Bill Ritter from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic."
To read Election Central's overview of all ratings changes since Foleygate broke, just click here.
There's been plenty of talk in political circles to the effect that the Republican National Committee is stepping into key Senate races because it doesn't think the NRSC is up to the job of winning them. Well, here's another sign of this: The RNC today sank $731,968.29 into negative ads and "research" (read: dirt-digging) against Dem challenger Claire McCaskill, records filed today with the Federal Election Commission show. The RNC's huge cash dump on behalf of GOP Senator Jim Talent -- who's trailing McCaskill in some recent polls -- comes as national GOP strategists appear to be halting their investment for now on the Ohio Senate race and instead are focusing on Virginia, Tennessee, and of course Missouri as key to holding the Senate.
The NRCC has a new ad out slamming Dem challenger and Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth on illegal immigration. The ad is pure red meat, uses the word “amnesty” as a dog whistle, and is filled with images of boarder crossing, and the Illinois families that have to foot the bill.
Conservative leaders across the country are desperately trying to save sinking GOP Rep. Rick Santorum -- not least because they see a Santorum loss as a potential turning point for the entire conservative movement. Today's L.A. Times reports that a a defeat for Santorum would mean a loss of a key liason to the national GOP leadership for conservatives. Colin Hanna, head of the conservative group Let Freedom Ring, sums up the stakes this way: "If Rick Santorum were to lose, it would be cited as a turning point in the social conservative movement." Some pastors in Pennsylvania are even stuffing voter guides into their Sunday bulletins in hopes of getting out the vote for him. The L.A. Times's interesting and extensive rundown on this is here.
At Sunday night’s debate, Christopher Shays attempted to further distance himself from his earlier comments that the abuse at Abu Ghraib did not amount to torture but was more of a “sex ring.” When confronted by Dem challenger Diane Farrell on the issue, Shays relented. “It is abuse and it was a mistake to say it wasn’t. Did I make a mistake? Yes, I did. You got me, Diane. You did.”
GOP businessman David McSweeney, who's trying to unseat freshman Rep. Melissa Bean, told the Daily Herald editorial board that the war in Iraq was justified in part because, "Saddam’s regime was destabilizing in the region and murderous to his own people."
One question: if destabilizing the region and causing the deaths of Iraqis is McSweeney's standard, does he think the effort in Iraq has helped matters?
Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor -- who's waging an underdog campaign against Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue -- has a new ad up that manages something rarely attempted: It explains a complicated ethics scandal in 30 seconds. The ad concludes, "Avoiding $100,000 in taxes; that's how Sonny did it."
Republicans may have given up on yet another House seat, Democrats battle to keep notices out of FL-16’s polling places, and some further thoughts on Lamont-Lieberman. We’re just 1 day away from being 3 weeks away!
Today's Times reports that the NRSC has concluded that GOP Senator Mike DeWine may be beyond saving, so it's shifting funds out of that race and focussing on races in Missouri, Tennessee, where polls show Dems with modest leads, and probably Virginia, which is now a dead heat. The Times also says this:
In one sign of the shifting political environment, as of this weekend, national Republicans were running advertisements in 29 districts; of those, 26 are held by Republicans and 3 by Democrats, though Republicans plan to begin running advertisements this week against an Illinois Democrat, Representative Melissa Bean. National Democrats are on the air in 30 districts, and defending Democrats in just 3 races.
GOP Rep. John Hostettler appears to be in serious trouble. A new poll released today by the Evansville Courier Press finds that Dem challenger Brad Ellsworth has widened his lead to 23 points, 55%-32%. Ellsworth has held a lead in recent polls, but nothing as yet has been comparable to today's spread. Interesting footnote: The Courier Press notes that the NRCC's main attack of late has moved away from a focus on Ellsworth's record and instead has spotlighted the fact that a vote for Ellsworth is a vote for future House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It doesn't appear to be working in this district.
Dem House candidate Tim Mahoney is leading GOP rival Joe Negron by seven points in the race for the seat of disgraced Rep. Mark Foley, but the race is by no means a lock for Democrats, a new poll published today by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel finds. The poll says Mahoney is backed by 48% of respondents, to 41% for Negron, the GOP's choice to replace Foley. But the poll also finds that 11 percent of voters are undecided, and that a surpising 71% say Foley's resignation will have "no effect" on their vote. "Both parties' national campaign committees in Washington, D.C., are scrambling to pour money into the District 16 race," says the paper, "highlighting its newfound importance in the national landscape."
Joe Lieberman is declining to say whether he thinks it would be a good thing if Dems win control of the House of Representatives. Lieberman -- who needs GOP votes as an independent -- was asked in an interview published today in the Hartford Courant whether America would be better off if his lifelong party took back the House. The Courant reports that Lieberman responded: "Uh, I haven't thought about that enough to give an answer." Lieberman also wouldn't say whether he'd vote for Dem John DeStefano, Jr., for governor, who, as the Courant noted wryly, is "mayor of the city where Lieberman has lived since the 1960s." Lieberman also observed that there's "not enough patriotism" in Washington. More from the Courant interview after the jump.
Dem Senate candidate James Webb has pulled to within two points of GOP Senator George Allen, a virtual tie, according to a new poll released today by the Washington Post. The poll finds Allen leading 49%-47%, a lead which falls within the poll's three-point margin of error. Recent polls of the race have alternated between showing small or sizeable leads for Allen. The Post notes that Webb's support is concentrated -- perhaps overly so -- in diverse, increasingly-Democratic Northern Virginia, while Allen's unfavorability ratings have risen and his support among independents has dropped. More here.
