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Uglier and uglier. The Wisconsin GOP is struggling to link Dem Steve Kagen -- the doctor-turned-candidate who's running against GOPer John Gard in a tight race -- to a convicted serial killer and child rapist. How is this link being made? "Only very tortuously and dishonestly," says Joel McNally of the Madison Capital Times. Full story here.
The NRCC sank $8,447,701.82 into around three dozen House races late yesterday, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. Most of the cash went to negative ads, mailers, and phone-banking (read: robocalls). As a general rule, the most whopping expenditures -- listed below -- obviously correspond to the races national GOP strategists are most worried about:
* IL-06: $870,711.84 for negative ads against Dem Tammy Duckworth
* PA-07: $690504.42 for negative ads against Dem Joe Sestak
* PA-08: $676781.17 for negative ads against Patrick Murphy
* IN-09: $470,648.98 for negative ads against Dem Baron Hill
* NM-01: $414,826.65 for negative ads against Dem Patricia Madrid
* MN-06: $351,599.48 for negative ads against Dem Patty Wetterling
* CO-07: $239,641.72 for negative ads against Dem Ed Perlumtter
* FL-16: $271,000.30 on ads for GOPer Joe Negron
For a more detailed breakdown, go here.
From today's Hartford Courant:
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman collected millions of dollars in campaign cash since his Democratic primary loss by tapping a lengthy list of major contributors to President Bush, dozens of Washington special interest groups and a lot of loyal Democrats....The effort to get Bush loyalists into Lieberman's camp was triggered by White House political guru Karl Rove's Aug. 8 phone call to the senator, just before Lieberman learned he would lose to Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Democratic Senate primary.
Rove did not promise any help, or offer any support...
That call, said Republican strategist Scott Reed, "was a signal to a lot of the Republican faithful to get engaged in the Lieberman race."...
[T]he Joe-needs-help message has been spreading for a while in Washington. Beginning with Rove's phone call, "a lot of Republicans around Washington who know [Lieberman] and like him spread the word," said Charles R. Black Jr., a longtime adviser to the Bush family.
Among the GOP donors who gave to Lieberman: Bush inner circle member Joseph Allbaugh, longtime Bush family friend Melvin Sembler, and "dozens of others from Texas" and other states. Lieberman campaign manager Sherry Brown told the paper that the campaign hadn't had contact with the White House, but she added of the GOP money: "We reached out and people reached out to us."
From this morning's Washington Post piece on Nancy Pelosi:
On his Web site, Majority Whip Roy Blunt calls the prospect of Pelosi becoming speaker "just plain scary" and says: "While Republicans fight the War on Terror . . . House Democrats plot to establish a Department of Peace."
Which gives us an opportunity to plug that glorious, oft-quoted headline from The Onion: "Bush: Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over."
The district of Dem Chet Edwards, which is home to President Bush's Crawford ranch and is one of the few Dem seats being eyed for a possible pickup by Republicans, now appears to be edging out of the GOP's reach. CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between Edwards and GOP challenger Van Taylor from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored." The GOP "early on touted Taylor as one of their strongest challengers," CQ says. "But...Republicans are concentrating heavily on shoring up their many vulnerable incumbents, and much less on targeting Democratic incumbents such as Edwards."
Nonpartisan analyist Stuart Rothenberg's latest race rankings are just out, and he's rated a staggering 30 House races as toss-ups -- and all but four of them are Republican-held seats. He rates 15 races as "pure" toss-ups, 12 as toss-ups that "tilt Democratic," and only three as toss-ups that "tilt Republican." His prediction for the House: "Democratic gain of 18-25 seats, though we think that a significantly larger Democratic gain, in excess of 30 seats, is quite possible." And his prediction for the Senate: "Democratic gains of 4-7 seats." View his list of House toss-ups after the jump.
Until now, most of the talk about vulnerable GOP incumbents in Indiana has focused on Reps Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel. But now CQ Politics says another Indiana GOP Rep. isn't completely safe: the Third District's Mark Souder. CQ has changed its rating of the race between Souder and Dem Tom Hayhurst from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored," saying that he "finds himself in his most competitive race in years." More from CQ after the jump.
Although the GOP would prefer to avoid the former scenario, almost all indications now point towards voters coming out in slightly higher-than-average midterm election percentages, at least in part to lash out at the party in power. The most reliable surveys show Democrats disproportionately engrossed in the elections, all the more reason a truly Herculean late identification and mobilization effort under the direction of Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman, and other wizardly GOP strategists would be needed to minimize Democrats' turnout edge. Of course, we don't want to make the mistake that some are committing by bringing down the curtain on the election too soon. Elections cannot be hurried; they must fully unwind on their own schedule, which this year ends November 7th.For the GOP, the Senate has always trailed behind the House in vulnerability to takeover. But in the last month, as Democrats have more likely than not wrested the House onto their side in this year's grand tug of war, the Senate has become more of a 50-50 proposition. The Crystal Ball will always have one eye firmly fixed on the House, where Democrats are poised to win 20 to 25 seats if not more. But this week, we turn our attention to the upper chamber, where five fundamentally close races will likely determine which party ends up on the short end of 51-49 (or in Democrats' case, the short end of 50-50, given Vice President Cheney's tie-breaking ability).
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Readers will wonder why noted races in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are not in this group. In our view, without a small miracle, GOP Sens. Conrad Burns, Mike DeWine, and Rick Santorum are all now headed into early retirement. Likewise, Republican takeover opportunities in Nebraska, Washington, and elsewhere have faded, and Maryland's open seat remains only a glimmering hope for the GOP as Maryland's strong Democratic lean manifests itself closer to Election Day. Democrats would have to win four out of the "Fundamental Five" to get to 51 seats, but with only one of the five currently leaning ever-so-slightly to the GOP, it's not as if the chances of such a scenario could even be described as on a noticeable incline, let alone uphill.
His full analysis here.
Every now and then amid the stilted talking-points, choreographed events and airless speeches that are the stuff of modern political campaigns you get a moment of genuine, wrenching emotion. Such a moment came the other day in Illinois' sixth, where Dem vet double-amputee Tammy Duckworth is battling GOPer Peter Roskam. At an event where Duckworth was speaking, a woman stood to share with Duckworth and the audience her thoughts about her brother, a soldier who's heading out for a second tour in Iraq. As the woman describes it, she was quickly overwhelmed with emotion and broke down and cried. Duckworth made her way over to the woman on her artificial legs and gave her a hug.
As Election Central reported the other day, the pastor at the Twin Cities-area mega-church Living Word Christian Center, Mac Hammond, may have violated IRS regulations when he endorsed GOP House candidate Michele Bachman during an event at his church. The church has since claimed that the institution didn't understand IRS regs dictating a separation between church and politics. But we looked at the video of the event again — and it seems clear that not only did the pastor know exactly what he was doing, he explicitly told anybody who might support such separation, "you need to get saved." More after the jump.
This is a milestone: Today, for the first time in this election cycle, CQ Politics is projecting that more Democratic House candidates than Republicans are on track to win their races. CQ editor Bob Benenson confirmed the change — and added that more shifts are coming. CQ is listing 209 Dems on track to win as of this writing, while projecting that 208 Republicans are headed for victory. The remaining 18 seats are listed as "No Clear Favorite" — and since all 18 are held by Republicans, it's yet another sign of the Democratic Party's mounting advantage.
GOP Rep. Geoff Davis -- a member of the party which claims to be the one grasping the importance of the Iraq war -- yesterday revealed that he didn't have any idea whatsoever how many U.S. soldiers had died in October. The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that when he was asked how many had died this month at a debate with Dem challenger Ken Lucas, Davis replied: "I believe it is 17." The questioner rejoined : "It's more like 71." Lucas pounced, saying Davis "minimizes what's going on" in Iraq. And then, referring to the fact that 17 and 71 are mirror images of each other, Lucas quipped that Davis is "dyslexic."
In another sign that the political environment continues to shift favorably for Dems, six House races have suddenly moved from out-of-play likely Republican victories to competitive contests in the last week alone, according to a quick analysis of race rankings by nonpartisan experts done by Election Central. The analysists, CQ Politics and Cook Political Report, have since Monday shifted their rankings of the six either to "Leans Republican" or "No Clear Favorite," indicating they are now in play for Dems. These shifts come after a more extensive Election Central analysis a week ago found that since Foleygate broke in late September, at least 29 races moved towards Dems. Our list of newly-competitive races after the jump.
A day after a new poll came out showing that once-flailing NRCC chief Tom Reynolds had retaken the lead over Dem challenger Jack Davis, the NRCC has opened fire on Reynolds with a new, hard-hitting spot. Script: "When Tom Reynolds had the opportunity to give our soldiers a $1,500 bonus, he voted no. `No' to a bonus for our troops, but `yes' to six difference pay raises for himself. Tom Reynolds, `no' to our troops, `yes' to himself. Just the kind of bad judgment we’ve come to expect from him."
The Capitol Confidental blog notes that this is a pretty standard DCCC attack ad that's been used in other New York races. At the same time, though, it contains a hard-hitting, albeit somewhat vague, Foleygate dig in the "no judgement" line. And any DCCC help will be welcomed by the Davis camp, which is getting badly outspent by Reynolds and the tons of cash he's getting from national Republicans.
In 2004 President Bush got 55% of the vote in this district in northeastern Wisconsin, leading many to expect that GOP nominee John Gard, an experienced state lawmaker, wouldn't have too much trouble defeating neophyte candidate and allergist Steve Kagen. But now CQ Politics has changed its rating of the race, which has now become one of Wisconsin's hottest contests, from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." More from CQ after the jump.
In their final debate last night, GOP Rep. Chris Shays and Dem challenger Diane Farrell found themselves in solid agreement: Both said they don't think the Republicans should be running the country anymore. Today's Hartford Courant reports:
"I don't think the Republican Party has earned the right to maintain the majority, nor do I think the Democrats have," Shays said.
Shays has in the past said that Bush “has no credibility” on Iraq. He's called on Donald Rumsfeld to resign. And he's said that the GOP leadership “has been so terribly wrong on so many policies." Every day, it seems, Shays comes closer and closer to complete agreement with Farrell.
So how much is the GOP really going to spend between now and election day in a last-ditch effort to prevent their majority from slipping away? And which party -- the GOP or the Dems -- is going to spend more in the home stretch? Depends on which Republican official is doing the talking. The ever-supremely-confident Karl Rove told the Washington Times on Wednesday that the GOP's huge financial advantage will enable the party to carry the day. But in today's New York Times, RNC chair Ken Mehlman is quoted saying that the Dems will "outspend" the GOP. Who's telling the truth? More after the jump.
There's a new poll out from SurveyUSA which says that NRCC chief Tom Reynolds — who'd slipped far behind in recent polls against Dem Jack Davis due to Foleygate — has retaken the lead, 49%-46%. As The Daily Politics notes, "Reynolds has gained 4 points and Davis has lost 4 points" since two weeks ago." Is Davis' lack of campaign skills to blame? A profile of Davis in today's Washington Post suggests the answer may be Yes. The 73-year old Davis says he doesn't "see the point" of "wasting time going around campaigning" and has no events scheduled. Meanwhile, Reynolds has tons of money and is fighting back — hard. Could Davis be blowing it? Read the Post piece and decide for yourself.
Here's a measure of just how ferocious the Dem assault on the GOP's control of the House has been of late: The NRCC spent an astounding $39.1 million in just the last seven weeks in 59 races across the country, according to a new macro-analysis of spending just released by CQ Politics. Yep, that's more than $5 million per week in the seven-week period analyzed by CQ, which stretched from Sept. 1 through yesterday. And get this: According to CQ's analysis, more than 90 percent of the money -- $36.5 million -- went to 47 districts where the GOP is playing defense. More details on the GOP's flood of cash after the jump.
A day after trailing gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell spread unsubstantiated rumors linking Dem frontrunner Ted Strickland to pedophiles, the Blackwell campaign is today reaching even higher: It's pushing new rumors that Strickland is gay and took a trip with his "boy toy" to Italy. The Blackwell campaign today sent out a video of Wednesday night's Hannity and Colmes program on Fox News. On the show, guest Bill Cunningham -- an Ohio talk show host -- accused Strickland of taking a trip to Italy with an aide in 1998 "in order to enjoy a little fun" with a "26-year-old boy toy." Our screen grab shows Blackwell's campaign web site promoting video of the accusations. More after the jump.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has just released its September fundraising numbers, and it's boasting that it has outraised the vaunted Republican National Committee money machine. The DSCC says it raised $13.6 million last month, and has a total on hand of $23.6 million -- more than double the $8.8 million it had on hand at the same point in 2004. The DSCC has steadily outraised its GOP counterpart, the NRSC. But today's number also appears to top that of the far more effective RNC, which earlier today issued a release saying it had raised "over $13 million." Nonetheless, today's numbers come amid some discord in Dem circles over the alleged failure of some Senate Dems to chip in to help the cause. More soon.
See GOP Rep. Sue Kelly run. See Sue Kelly run from a debate with Dem challenger John Hall. See Sue Kelly run from questions about her role in Foleygate. See Sue Kelly run -- literally run -- from local news WRNN-TV reporters. See Sue Kelly run from all those things -- in our video below.
If you don't want Al Qaeda to attack us again, then vote Republican. That's the message in a lurid new web ad that the Republican National Committee has released today. The ad shows footage of terrorists training set to the ticking of a time bomb. After flashing quotes from Osama and other terrorists promising doom to America, the ad concludes: "These are the stakes. Vote November 7th." Most interesting bit: After the ad ends, it flashes a link to click if you want to "vote early" -- an obvious bid to harvest impulsive, fear-driven votes. (See third screen grab below.) View the ad here.
A new ad from Dem Patricia Madrid bashes GOP Rep. Heather Wilson ferociously hard on both Iraq and Foleygate. Script: "Heather Wilson admitted helpong George Bush cover up the truth about Iraq. She was on the Armed Services Committee and knew the intelligence was wrong from the beginning. And Heather Wilson took more money from child predator Mark Foley than anyone else in Congress. And as one of just three members on the page oversight board, she did nothing while Mark foley preyed on children."
While Madrid tries to sink Wilson ever deeper into the Foleygate quicksand, Wilson is thrashing around to extricate herself by accusing Madrid, who is currently state attorney general, of not securing jail time for a 41-year-old man bagged for attemtpted child predation, as TPM noted yesterday. But Wilson appears to be sinking nonetheless. The last three polls of the race show Madrid with sizeable leads.
Lois Murphy has picked up the endorsement of the Allentown Morning Call, in her race for Pennsylvania’s 6th district. The paper originally endorsed her opponent, and current incumbent Jim Gerlach in 2004, but has switched over to Murphy’s side this time around.According to the Morning Call, “Two years ago, we recommended the candidacy of Mr. Gerlach, a congressional freshman who previously had an impressive record as a state representative. But this time, after watching the incumbent's performance in office for two more years, we must give the edge to Mrs. Murphy…Though Rep. Gerlach has tried to depict her as a liberal, Mrs. Murphy is a deficit hawk who believes Washington should be a pay-as-you-go government…The Morning Call recommends the election of Lois Murphy in the 6th Congressional District.”
The paper recommends her on the basis of her support for a wide range of government reforms from earmarks to the disclosure of lobbyist connections.
Game on: Yesterday the DCCC pumped a staggering $11,859,818.68 into 32 races in 17 states, new filings with the FEC show. Here's what's noteworthy in the Dems' money drop:
* Notably, almost half of the cash — $5,042,707.45 — was spent on three House races in Pennsylvania alone, on ads targeting incumbents Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Mike Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, the DCCC spent another $107,185.28 against incumbent Republican Don Sherwood.
* The DCCC made its first-ever buy — $332,601.56 — for ads targeting GOP candidate Michele Bachmann, who is fighting a challenge from surging Dem Patty Wetterling.
* Some $778,546.77 was pumped into three races in Ohio, targeting GOP Reps. Steve Chabot, Deborah Pryce and Joy Padgett.
* And $649,694.19 went to three races in Indiana, targeting GOP Reps. Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel.
The race between GOP Rep. Jon Porter and Dem Tessa Hafen, the former aide to Harry Reid, hasn't been seen as a competitive one, even though the district was an evenly-split battleground between George Bush and John Kerry in 2004. Polls in September showed Porter with a sizeable lead, and CQ Politics has rated it as "Republican Favored." But new evidence is emerging that the race isn't necessarily a lock for Porter. A poll recently released by Dem firm Momentum Analysis shows Hafen within four points of Porter, 41%,-37%. What's more, the NRCC dropped nearly 10 grand on a poll in the district this week -- something the GOP wouldn't do unless there was at least some concern over Porter's seat. So count this race on our list of ones to watch.
Eastern Pennsylvania has been a key battleground in the struggle for control of the House -- witness the DCCC's massive expenditure yesterday targeting GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. But now the contested terrain is spreading to Western Pennsylvania, too, reports CQ Politics. As a result, CQ has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep. Melissa Hart and Dem challenger Jason Altmire from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." More of CQ's analysis after the jump.
National Dems appear to be getting serious about taking out GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. The DCCC yesterday pumped a huge amount into the race, spending $1,348,073.77 on an ad campaign targeting Fitzpatrick, new records filed with the Federal Election Commission show. To get a sense of just how nasty the ad war has gotten between Fitzpatrick and Dem challenger Patrick Murphy, check out these dueling ads from the two camps. The most recent poll showed Murphy with a small edge over Fitzpatrick; this latest DCCC money drop suggests that Dems think they can put this one away.
Joe Lieberman gets bombarded on 4 sides, Menendez and Kean keep it unclean, Curt Weldon plays the coquette, and a big legal decision is handed down in Foley town. Gotta Round up to get down!
Dem Chris Murphy, who's battling to unseat GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson, claims he's rejecting calls from the DCCC to run more negative ads. The Greater Danbury News-Times reports that Murphy addressed the DCCC's purported demand as follows (emphasis added): "Have we run ads critical of Nancy Johnson? Absolutely. But I am proud of the tone our campaign has taken...I want to sleep at night." The DCCC, of course, may be pressing Murphy out of unease about Johnson's ads, which are somewhat less than restrained. Recent polls show the race is too close to call.
Incoming! Via Ben Smith of The Daily Politics, it looks as if the Republican National Committee is rushing in to bail out NRCC chief Tom Reynolds. The RNC has a new ad attacking Reynolds's Dem foe by saying that people should get ready for "higher prices" because "Jack Davis wants tarrifs on many of the products you buy." It seems the RNC is referring to Davis' call for retaliatory tariffs on goods from China -- a position awfully similar to a bill recently co-sponsored by GOP Senator Lindsey Graham. As Smith notes, it's Davis's message which "clearly connects with people in Buffalo." View it here.
GOP Rep. J.D. Hayworth made a curious claim Tuesday during a debate with Dem Harry Mitchell, who's been gaining on the incumbent in recent polls. Discussing Iraq, Hayworth told the audience, "if we abandon Iraq, what our enemies refer to as the central front in the war on terror, we are inviting a raft of problems..." (emphasis added) At first glance, this statement seems like the average GOP talking point on Iraq, but Hayworth does something kind of new here. He directly attributes the phrase "the central front in the war on terror" to the enemies of America, though it is actually terminology popularized by the Bush administration, which they have been using since at least Sept. 7, 2003. Unless Hayworth is referring to the Bush administration as "our enemies," his reference to the phrase seems to be factually challenged. More after the jump.
This is interesting. GOP Rep. John Doolittle -- who regularly attacks Dem foe Charlie Brown for being a member of the ACLU, which has defended child sex predators -- himself testified on behalf of a friend who was accused of sexual assault, possibly helping him get a reduced sentence. And the friend subsequently committed sexual assault again. The Sacramento Bee and the L.A. Times's political blog both report today that in 1987, Doolilttle served as a key character witness for friend David Roy Phipps, a dentist accused of assaulting six patients in his chair. He got three years' probation. In 1994, Phipps assaulted another patient, the Times reports. More after the jump.
Thanks to Foleygate, the GOP is now having to expend major resources to defend Tom Reynolds's seat. Today's FEC filing shows a one-day expenditure of $229360.60 by the Republican National Committee against Dem nominee Jack Davis — the first expenditure in the race by the RNC during this whole cycle.
GOP Senator Conrad Burns is claiming that President Bush has a plan for Iraq but that he isn't willing to reveal it. The Billings-Gazette reports today that Burns made the remark at a debate with Dem challenger Jon Tester yesterday. The paper says that Burns said of Tester (emphasis added): “He says our president don’t have a plan. I think he’s got one. He’s not going to tell everyone in the world." And when Tester observed that there was no plan, Burns replied: "We’re not going to tell you what our plan is, Jon, because you’re just going to go out and blow it." More after the jump.
A group of wealthy Wall Street-types is raising last minutes funds for threatened moderate Republicans like Chris Shays, Rob Simmons, Nancy Johnson, and Deborah Pryce. "Republicans Who Care," lead by executives from places like Goldman Sachs and Chase Manhattan, had raised $385,000 as of September 30th and plans to spend everything it can to help fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republicans hold their seats. The group was initially founded to counteract the effect of the anti-moderate Club for Growth and, as Ari Berman at the Nation points out, its name begs the question: "Does that mean that the rest of the Republicans are members of 'Republicans Who Don't Care'?"
Robert Novak's predition today is that Dems will win 20 seats in the House, and four in the Senate:
With hopes of the late comeback faded, the Republican strategy has changed from that of a quarterback on a fourth-quarter come-from-behind mission to that of an overwhelmed emergency medical technician performing triage on several dying patients. The only thought now is to minimize losses by plugging whatever holes can be plugged. Late decisions have to be made about who lives and who dies. The GOP has to decide where it can win, and it cannot afford to waste time or resources on those who cannot be saved. At this point, the best indication of how races are going is where the money is being spent.If the election were held today, Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives. Republicans -20, Democrats +20.
As for the Senate, Novak predicts four Dem pickups: The seats held by GOP incumbents Mike DeWine, Rick Santorum, Conrad Burns and Lincoln Chafee. Novak's full analysis here.
Much of the coverage of GOP candidate Michele Bachmann's now-notorious event at a megachurch has focused on the potentially-illegal endorsement she received from a pastor. But there's another element of her appearance that has passed unnoticed: She expounded on the extent to which she communicates directly with God about her campaign. Bachmann revealed that she decided to run for Congress after she and her husband got the go-ahead directly from God: "And we said 'Lord, is this what you want? Is this Your will?'" God's answer: Yes. More after the jump.
As Curt Weldon’s troubles continue to mount, his campaign has released an ad that takes a predictable route and warns that if elected Joe Sestak would raise taxes. Echoing a theme raised in one of his direct mailers, the ad hits Sestak for spending, “thirty years away from our region.” Where has he been these past thirty years? Serving in the US Navy, not surprisingly the ad does not mention this fact. Watch the ad here.
GOP Rep. Chris Shays is gonna take plenty of heat for this one. At a debate this morning at the Stamford Marriott with antiwar Dem challenger Diane Farrell, Shays opined that we should have invaded Iraq "sooner" -- and not for WMDs. According to a transcript supplied by the Farrell campaign, Shays said:
Now let me just tell you something about the reality. We're there. And if we made mistakes we're still there. In my judgment we should have gone in sooner but not for weapons of mass destruction.
View Shays' remark below:
Shays didn't elaborate on this view. His remark came amid a long diatribe which included a scorching attack on Bush's handling of the war. View a fuller transcript after the jump.
GOP Rep. Chris Shays has done it again. At a debate last night with Dem anti-war challenger Diane Farrell, Shays said:
As today's Washington Post notes, Dem strategists are divided right now over whether to dig deep into their pockets to fund uphill but somewhat competitive races. Well, here's such a contest. CQ Politics has just changed the rating of the race between 12-year GOP Rep. Gil Gutknecht and Dem challenger Tim Walz, a retired command sergeant, from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." More after the jump.
Outside groups, including both national parties and special interests, are spending almost $1 million more in Indiana's three competitive House races than the actual candidates. An examination of FEC filings by the Indianapolis Star reveals that the most independent expenditures are in the 8th District, where GOP Rep. John Hostettler is struggling to maintain his seat against Dem Brad Ellsworth. Democratic groups have spent $2.6 million in the district compared to $1.9 million by Republicans. Liberal groups are also outspending conservatives in the 2nd District race between GOP Rep. Chris Chocola and Dem Joe Donnelly. In contrast, GOP backers are dominating the 9th District battle between Republican Mike Sodrel and Dem Baron Hill. All three races are in the top 15 of the National Journal's rankings for likely seat changes this year.
Did a Michelle Bachmann event at a church violate IRS regs? Several days ago, state Sen. Bachmann, who's battling Dem challenger Patty Wetterling for the open seat, spoke at local megachurch Living Word Christian Center. At the event, Bachmann received the public endorsement of their pastor — in possible violation of IRS regulations. Click here for video of the endorsement. More on the possible violation after the jump.
