GOP Rep. Chris Shays lashed out at his own party's national strategists today for sending out a flyer which accused his Dem opponent Diane Farrell of wanting to have "coffee talk with the Taliban." Shays posted a statement on his website slamming the flyer, which was sent out by the NRCC, as "outrageous" and as "garbage," saying that it was "an insult to the intelligence of the Fourth District." He added that the NRCC had "crossed the line." Shays' broadside against his party came a day after Election Central posted the flyer and called Shays' office to inquire whether he viewed the flyer's accusations as acceptable political rhetoric. His full statement after the jump.

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Responding to criticism of a NRCC mailer accusing opponent Diane Farrell of wanting to have "Coffee with the Taliban," embattled Republican Congressman Christopher Shays castigated his party's election committee and said it had "crossed the line." He called the ad "outrageous," "an insult to the intelligence of the Fourth District," and "garbage," and demanded the NRCC stop. Shays, who is in a tight race for reelection, has been under fire this week for calling Senator Ted Kennedy a "killer" and dismissing Abu Ghraib as just "a sex ring."

The full text of his statement is below the fold.

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GOP Rep. Christopher Shays' admonished the National Republican Congressional Committee yesterday for distributing a mailer attacking his Dem opponent with the slogan "Diane Farrell: Coffee Talk with the TALIBAN." In a statement, Shays called on the NRCC to "put an end to sending this type of garbage to Fourth District mailboxes," adding that the attack was "an insult to the intelligence" of the district's residents. Numerous Conn. Democrats, including Sen. Christopher Dodd, also condemned the NRCC's mailing. "This is absolutely the worst kind of politics in America," Dodd said during a press conference addressing the fliers.

The NRCC isn't investing any serious money in the race for Tom DeLay's seat between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. "National Republicans were supposed to invest $3 million to $4 million to help Sekula-Gibbs," reports the Associated Press. "So far, however, she's received just $134,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee." Lampson had $2.2 million as of June 30th. Meanwhile, other GOP House candidates are swimming in cash: The NRCC yesterday dumped a staggering $9.3 million into a bunch of other races. Reader DK, guestblogging over at TPM, has the breakdown of NRCC spending here.

The NRCC isn't investing any serious money in the race between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs for the seat of outgoing Rep. Tom DeLay. "National Republicans were supposed to invest $3 million to $4 million to help Sekula-Gibbs," reports the Associated Press. "So far, however, she's received just $134,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee." Meanwhile, the NRCC yesterday dumped a staggering $9.3 million into a bunch of other House races. Reader DK has the breakdown over at TPM.

That's the intriguing question being asked by Charles Mahtesian, the editor of the Almanac of American Politics, in the current National Journal:

Congressional party-switching has been an almost exclusively Democratic malady for more than a quarter-century. When the occasional Republican like Jeffords or then-Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire did leave the family, the defector became an independent, never going so far as to formally join the Democratic ranks. (Smith, in fact, returned to the GOP fold in November 1999, less than a year after leaving it for a short-lived presidential bid.)

However, if the Democrats retake the House this November 7, the self-serving calculus used by a generation of Southern politicians in defecting from the Democratic Party may well begin to make sense for nail-biting, blue-state Republicans across the Northeast and in parts of the Midwest as they begin to ponder a future without chairmanships, a future weighed down by the drag of a socially conservative, Southern- and Western-based national party.

CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between incumbent GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee and Dem challenger Sheldon Whitehouse from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":

The national Republican Party’s heavy intervention [in the GOP primary] left Chafee with two big problems coming out of the primary.

Those conservatives who strongly backed Laffey — and who believed the national party should have left the decision up to the state’s Republican voters — were left with hard feelings.

At the other end of the spectrum, Democrat Whitehouse used the primary as ammunition for his argument that Chafee is more of a party loyalist and less of a maverick than his image suggests, and that he is now more beholden that ever to Republican leaders. To implement change in Washington, say Whitehouse and fellow Democrats, Rhode Islanders must replace Chafee.

CQ also notes that Whitehouse was spared a tough primary and that he's got twice the cash on hand that Chafee does. CQ's full analysis here.

Okay, I've got a bit more for you on the appearance of a "George Felix Allen" in the records of the Albemarle Circut Court in the early 1970s. As noted below, the court clerk, Shelby Marshall, confirmed to me in an interview earlier today that a picture posted at DailyKos showing a "George Felix Allen" appearance in 1974 court records is genuine. Now I've spoken with Marshall a second time, and she's confirmed that a second photo of a second court records entry involving a "George Felix Allen" is genuine, too. So now we know that "George Felix Allen" appeared in court records twice in the early 1970s. The clerk's confirmed it. But for what offense or offenses?

The second entry is depicted here:

As you can see, a George Felix Allen appears on the third line down. Marshall confirmed to me that the date of the recorded entry is Feb. 15, 1973, and said it referred to either a summons or a warrant issued for an unknown offense. But as in the case of the first entry, however, Marshall emphasized that no further court info was available. More after the jump.

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The already-tight race between GOP Rep. Curt Weldon and Dem challenger Joe Sestak just got a heck of a lot tighter. McClatchy Newspapers is reporting that the Justice Department is probing whether Weldon traded political influence in exchange for lucrative lobbying contracts for his daughter. TPMmuckraker's Paul Kiel provides much needed context and backstory here.

Rep. Chris Shays has now clarified his Wednesday remarks about Abu Ghairb, in which Shays asserted that what happened at the notorious prison "wasn't torture" and was just a "sex ring." Shays acknowledged to the Associated Press today that what happened at the prison was in fact torture. But he offered a curious qualification, saying "it was torture because sex abuse is torture." He added that his earlier remarks had been prompted by photos of "naked Iraqis, naked Americans, Americans having sex." It was unclear from his comments which disturbed Shays more -- the images of abuse or the images of sex.

(Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.)

Check out this new mailing sent out by the NRCC. It accuses Diane Farrell, the Dem challenger to GOP Rep Chris Shays, of wanting to have a "Coffee Talk with the Taliban":

To back up this charge, the flyer says simply that Farrell's candidacy "is endorsed by an organization with a leader who wanted someone to sit down and have a talk with the Taliban." The group isn't named. But NRCC spokesman Ed Patru tells Election Central that the organization in question is the Council for a Livable World, a moderate think tank previously cited in GOP advertising.

No further evidence beyond the unnamed leader of the Council who supposedly advocated talks with the Taliban was offered to support the belief that Farrell herself believes anything like this. The full mailing after the jump.

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I just got off the phone with the clerk at the Albemarle Circuit Court. She has told me that a photo now floating around the internet -- one which shows a court entry for one "George Felix Allen" in 1974 -- represents real court records.

The photo was posted by DailyKos diarist Crell Moset. It's right here:

If you look at the second line down, you'll see: "Allen, George Felix." What is the record for? The clerk, Shelby Marshall, told me that the record is not necessarily of an arrest warrant, though it could have been. She said the record could be reflecting anything from a summons for an unpaid parking ticket all the way up to an arrest warrant for a misdemeanor for something like assault and battery, and that she doesn't have any more information.

I've emailed the Allen campaign for comment, and haven't heard back yet. A full explanation after the jump.

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GOP Rep. Christopher Shays said that what happened at Abu Gharib "wasn't torture"; it was merely a "sex ring." Today's Stamford Advocate reports that Shays made the comment during a debate Wednesday night with Dem challenger Diane Farrell. Here's what Shays told the audience: "Now I've seen what happened in Abu Ghraib, and Abu Ghraib was not torture. It was outrageous, outrageous involvement of National Guard troops from [Maryland] who were involved in a sex ring and they took pictures of soldiers who were naked." Farrell responded to the paper: "For Chris to say it was a sex ring is to minimize what happened. Chris knows it was certainly more than a sex ring." Update: Here's the video.

The NRCC yesterday sank $442,289.83 into some 39 House races across the country, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. The cash — which is earmarked for TVads, mailers and phone banks — is virtually all going to attacks on Dem opponents. You can view a detailed breakdown of the spending here. Meanwile, Dems yesterday pumped $143,599.51 into 10 House races.

The national GOP isn't giving any money for ads to help GOP Senator Rick Santorum hang on to his seat against Dem Bob Casey, raising questions about whether national Republican strategists have privately given up on the incumbent's campaign. Today's Patriot-News reports that neither the RNC nor the NRSC has reserved any air time at Pennsylvania TV stations for "independent expenditure ads for Santorum or against Casey. Though an NRSC spokesman denied to the paper that the committee had given up on Santorum, recent polls show Santorum trailing badly behind. And while the RNC isn't really helping Santorum, it's investing heavily in Senate races in Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio.

“Whither Foleygate?” ?!? Part 2

Will Foleygate have any effect on the midterm elections? The Midterm Roundup is tired of arguing. YOU make the call!

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That eye-opening number on the Missouri Senate race we promised you earlier? Here it is: A new SurveyUSA poll finds that Dem challenger Claire McCaskill is pulling away from GOP Senator Jim Talent -- she now leads Talent 51%-42%. Previous polls have shown a statistical dead heat. A key footnote in today's poll: There's been a big swing in independent support. Independents backed Talent by 12 points last month, but now support McCaskill by 13 -- a 25 point shift. As noted below, Missouri is one of the three Senate races the Republican National Committee is now sinking money into in a last-ditch effort to stave off more and more likely losses in the Senate.

This one surprises us a bit, because the last couple of polls showed sizeable leads for GOP Rep John Sweeney, but CQ has now downgraded its rating of the race between Sweeney and Dem Kirsten Gillibrand from "Leans Republican" to "Toss up":

Gillibrand, an attorney and first-time candidate for public office, on Tuesday sent an open letter to Sweeney requesting he release information regarding police incidents earlier in his career, including an arrest for driving while intoxicated...

It was another step in Gillibrand’s efforts to tie Sweeney to the “culture of corruption” tag with which Democrats have been trying to bedevil Republicans throughout the 2006 campaign. In fact, Gillibrand was an early entry, issuing accusations as early as last January that Sweeney was joining lobbyists on ski trips while ignoring the district’s problems.

The contest is front and center for the national Democratic Party, which sees the upstate 20th as an only mildly Republican-leaning district — President Bush took a modest 53 percent there in 2004 — that is ripe for a partisan takeover...The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lists the race in its “Red to Blue” program — its roster of highly competitive races that the party hopes to switch from Republican red to Democratic blue on electoral maps — and has spent $110,000 on the race in recent weeks.

CQ's full roundup of New York races is here.

This new TV ad from Dem nominee Steve Kagen — who's running against state Assembly Speaker John Gard in a narrowly Republican district — takes a novel approach to attacking the GOP for running up massive budget deficits. Looking directly into the camera, Kagen says: "I'm a Democrat because I'm too conservative to be a Republican, the way they spend money in Washington."

Okay, so Election Central has now tallied up the big-picture impact that the two-week period since Foleygate broke has had on the nation's few-dozen competitive House races. We did this by counting up all the House races which had their ratings changed by CQ Politics and Cook Political Report since Foleygate hit the news on Sept. 29. We chose CQ and Cook because they both neatly date their ratings changes. Our grand total: 29 races have shifted favorably for Dems since the Foley scandal first hit. Only one has shifted in favor of the GOP. View our full list after the jump.

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Check out the latest attack ad from sinking GOP Senator Conrad Burns: It slams Dem challenger Jon Tester for his ties to "radicals" and "extremists." Who are these radicals and extremists? For one thing, the ad attacks Tester for taking campaign donations steered his way by...the people at Daily Kos. It also attacks Tester for being supported by the "radicals" at the Council for a Livable World, a think tank opposed to the Iraq war which regularly supports Republicans and whose board includes former national security officials and military officers.

The Billings Gazette has a bracing fact-check of the ad here. More after the jump.

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Foleygate has seriously eroded support for Speaker Dennis Hastert in his own district, the first post-Foleygate poll of his race shows. The poll — which is in the new batch of polls from Constituent Dynamics released today — finds that Hastert is leading Dem candidate John Laesch 52%-42%. It's a sizeable lead, of course. But remember that the Speaker got 69% of the vote in his last election. So his support's plunged some 17 points. Assuming Hastert is re-elected come November, it's a safe bet that it will be by his lowest majority ever.

Jack Murtha is coming to Ohio to campaign for Dem Victoria Wulsin -- and against Wulsin's GOP opponent, "Mean Jean" Schmidt, the woman who memorably called Murtha a "coward" a year ago. Today's Cincinnati Post reports that Murtha will invade Mean Jean's district on behalf of Wulsin this coming Saturday. For Murtha, this may amount to more than run-of-the-mill campaigning. Last November, after Murtha called for withdrawal from Iraq, Mean Jean said: "Cowards cut and run, Marines never do." Murtha, of course, was a Marine. For old time's sake, we're hauling out the video of Mean Jean's "coward" moment. View it here.

In a tough new mailing, GOP Rep Curt Weldon is slamming Dem challenger Joe Sestak for not living in Pennsylvania for the "past three decades":

title="Weldon Mailer Clipping" width="551" height="145" />

So where has Sestak been all this time, anyway? Answer: In the Navy. No mention of that in the flyer, incidentally.

GOP Rep John Doolittle put on quite a show last night at his debate with Dem challenger Charlie Brown. First Doolittle asserted that Iraq did have weapons of mass destruction. Then he dismissed Brown's recounting of his military service and how it convinced him there were no WMD in Iraq — Brown's an Air Force vet who flew recon missions over Iraq when it was under sanctions — as a "ridiculous story." And perhaps best of all, here's what he said when an audience member drew attention to the fact that he'd hired his own wife, Julie Doolittle, to raise campaign cash for him at a 15 percent commission: "They want to drag my poor wife into this." The Sacramento Bee has an entertaining rundown here. More after the jump.

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In today's New York Times GOP incumbent Deborah Pryce admits that her friendship with Mark Foley has done her bid for reelection serious damage:

[Pryce] said in an interview on a tense day of campaigning here, her own internal polls have measured a steady drop in support under the weight of attacks by Mary Jo Kilroy, her Democratic opponent.

Ms. Kilroy has emphasized Ms. Pryce’s connections to Mr. Foley, who was on a list of five people Ms. Pryce said she considered Washington friends in the Columbus Monthly interview.

“I’m totally convinced,” Ms. Pryce said, her voice faint, as she described why her support had declined. “All our polling showed we were going in the right direction until this happened. It fell precipitously.”

Hastert, Reynolds, now Pryce? How many members of the House leadership will go?

Larry Sabato's latest:

For the first time this year, your cautious Crystal Ball now projects a Democratic majority of somewhere between 221 and 225 seats (with 218 needed for control). In fact, to reflect just how precipitously many GOP-held seats have drifted from safe harbor, we have had to jettison not only the "Dirty Thirty" but now the "Ferocious Forty" as well. In their place, meet the "Ferocious FIFTY" theaters of battle, 42 of which are currently held by Republicans. It is indeed noteworthy that since last month's update, the Crystal Ball can now count an additional ten House districts as truly competitive (rated either as a Toss-up or "leaning" towards one party in our chart below).

In the Senate we believe that control of the body is up for grabs, with Democrats nearly sure to win 15 out of the 33 total seats up this year. Four more seats are on the edge but leaning slightly towards the Democrats. The five total toss-ups will determine which party organizes the upper chamber, and the Democrats will likely need to capture all five of them to take control, a reasonable possibility given the dynamics of each race in that category.

Sabato's cautionary note: "Just as the headlines, and the drift of this election, shifted almost overnight in a Democratic direction in the past two weeks, so too can events at home and abroad transform the headlines again." View his handy chart here.

So it looks as if Dem Sherrod Brown may be pulling away from GOP Senator Mike DeWine. A new SurveyUSA poll shows Brown now leading DeWine by 14 points, 54%-40%. A key footnote: Since the last SurveyUSA poll in late September, Brown has gone up two points, while DeWine has dropped two points. DeWine is sinking despite the fact that in an unusual move, the Republican National Committee has chosen Ohio as one of three Senate races (usually the province mainly of the NRSC) it's investing heavily in as part of a last-ditch effort to bail out struggling GOPers. The other two states are Tennessee and Missouri. A preview: Some equally eye-opening numbers are coming on the Missouri race later today.

GOP Rep Richard Pombo — who's locked in a tighter-than-expected contest with Dem Jerry McNerney — has just released a new radio ad claiming that McNerney "thinks the war on terror is a joke." The ad goes an extra step and accuses McNerney of saying "that North Korea should be allowed to develop nuclear weapons without fear of U.S. military intervention." In a final display of stock GOP rhetoric, the ad insinuates that if you vote for the Dem, you just might, well, die. It concludes: "Is there a difference between Richard Pombo and Jerry McNerney on the war on terror? You bet your life there is." Listen to it here.

Dems are poised for big gains in Indiana. CQ Politics has just revised its ratings in two key Indiana House races -- and both shifts downgrade the hopes of GOP incumbents. CQ's changed the rating of the race between GOP Rep John Hostettler and Dem Brad Ellsworth from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." And it's also shifted the rating in the contest between GOP Rep Chris Chocola and Dem Joe Donnelly from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." CQ's full analysis here.

Hypocrisy Alert. Republican Rick O'Donnell has made the need to "clean up Congress" one of his campaign themes this year, even laying out a 12-point plan of how to do so, but now his own ethics are coming under scrutiny due to an expense-paid trip to Panama he took with his girlfriend while he was the head of the Colorado Commission on Higher Education. The Denver Post has the details here.

On the lighter side, Dem Kirsten Gillibrand has just released a new ad rapping GOP Rep John Sweeney for a recent boozy excursion to a late-night frat party which got him in some trouble. The ad's key line quotes the Beastie Boys: "We deserve a Congressman who will fight for more than his right to party." Why focus on Sweeney's partying in a dorm? Easy: It's a subtle allusion to Foleygate. As Ben Smith of The Daily Politics notes, the ad "is an attempt to paint John Sweeney -- who was allegedly drunk at a frat party -- with Mark Foley, who allegedly showed up drunk at congressional page dorms." The acting in the ad is pretty awful, but it's still worth a look. You can view it here.

The NRCC has sent out a mailing in Illinois' sixth attacking Dem House candidate Tammy Duckworth on Social Security. The flyer comes enclosed in this envelope:

As you can see, the envelope's color and its eagle stamp -- as well as its lack of anything identifying the source as the NRCC on the front -- suggest that recipients are meant to think it's an official government mailing on Social Security. Then, when recipients open it, they find a mailing attacking Duckworth (view it after the jump). So Duckworth supporters are asking:

Does the mailer conform to laws which place restrictions on imitations of official government mail?

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CQ Politics has changed its rating for the race between GOP Rep. Dave Reichert and Dem Darcy Burner from "Leans Republcian" to "No Clear Favorite":

Democrat Darcy Burner’s challenge to freshman Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in Washington’s 8th District has become one of the year’s key battleground races -- as evidenced by the fact that the national parties poured nearly $1 million dollars into this contest in the last two weeks...

Independent polls indicate that Burner, a former Microsoft executive making her first bid for public office, is gaining ground in this partisan swing district in suburban Seattle.

Reichert has positioned himself as a moderate from the beginning of his tenure, but recently boldly underlined his reputation as a “centrist” in his releases...

The National Republican Congressional Committee -- the GOP’s national House campaign unit — spent at least $728,000 from Sept. 29 through Oct. 9 on an independent expenditure campaign opposing Burner.

CQ's full analysis here. Meanwhile, CQ has also changed the ratiing in Oregon's 5th District race between Dem Rep. Darlene Hooley and GOPer Mike Erickson from "Safe Democratic" to "Democrat Favored."

"I don't believe it." That's GOP gubernatorial candidate and Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell's response to Bob Woodward's account of President Bush calling him a "nut" in 2004. Speaking to the Cincinnati Enquirer's editorial board Tuesday, Blackwell dismissed the anecdote as something he couldn't comprehend. “Why would anyone think he did say that?" Blackwell pondered out loud. "I’ve known him half of my adult life.’’ We at Election Central have our own question: Could it be half a lifetime's knowledge that led Bush to conclude that Blackwell is a "nut?"

Is the race between Kansas GOP Rep Jim Ryun and Dem challenger Nancy Boyda shaping up as competitive? Today's Lawrence Journal-World reports that the Boyda campaign released a new internal poll which says the race is statistically tied at 43% for Ryun and 42% for Boyda. What's more, Dick Cheney will be in the district fundraising tomorrow for Ryun, suggesting at least some GOP concern. National observers are cautious about rating the race due to the lack of public polling. The National Journal's Chuck Todd hasn't ranked it in his top 50 competetive races. Nonetheless, Todd tells Election Central: "It's the type of race that in a wave environment could go."

The NY Sun today has a strange piece today on the RNC. It seems that an RNC staffer accidentally sent an email intended for the Secret Service - complete with date of birth, race and Social Security number - to a Sun reporter.

GOP Rep Richard Pombo's race against Dem challenger Jerry McNerney may have just gotten a heck of a lot tougher, thanks to a whammo visited on Pombo by the Associated Press today. TPMmuckraker's Paul Kiel explains.

Heath Shuler, NASCAR Dem? Former NFL quarterback Shuler, a conservative Dem running in a conservative district, is shelling out $10,000 to advertise on a car competing in the Busch Series race this Friday, the Associated Press reports. Shuler, who's for gun rights and against abortion and is battling to unseat Rep Charles Taylor, isn't the first Dem to advertise on a race car: Florida Sen. Bob Graham sponsored a Ford that raced in NASCAR's truck series in the leadup to the 2004 Presidential primaries.

The campaign of GOP incumbent Dave Reichert has agreed to fix one of their attack ads on Dem challenger Darcy Burner over the misquoting of an article from the Seattle Times. The issue at hand is the use of this article that critiqued the campaign ads from both camps. The ad states that, “after weeks of Darcy Burner’s negative campaigning, the Seattle Times cried foul for falsely attacking Dave Reichert’s support of veterans.” The proof of this is a quote from the Times piece that says, “Burner’s charges hurt by inaccuracies.” The only problem is that no such quote appears in the article. Nowhere in the article does it say that the Seattle Times is crying foul, but instead states that the Reichert campaign was objecting to a characterization made in a Burner ad about Reichert’s support of veterans. For a full rundown of the ad see here.

Karl Rove is emerging as the go-to guy to replace all the featured guests who are cancelling fundraising and political appearances because of Foleygate. The Associated Press reports today that Rove is the new featured host of a Washington fundraiser for Ohio House candidate Joy Padgett that was supposed to be headlined by Hastert until he pulled out a few days ago. As Election Central noted earlier today, Rove is also rushing in to host a political event for Tom Reynolds — also badly damaged by Foleygate — after John McCain bailed on the event. The GOP scandals are so bad that Rove is the only one left candidates will allow themselves to be seen with.

So the Associated Press has picked up our story about the soldier who appeared in an ad for GOP Senator Mike DeWine. And AP moved the ball a bit by confirming that the soldier is real. As Election Central first reported yesterday, the Army is reviewing the ad to determine whether the appearance of someone in uniform violated Defense Department regs barring uniformed military personnel from appearing in partisan contexts. The AP's pickup says: "DeWine spokesman Brian Seitchik declined to give information about the soldier, except that he is a real soldier, not an actor. He said the appearance did not violate military regulations." That's for the Army to determine in their review, however. Stay tuned.

GOP Rep Chris Shays is calling Dem Senator Ted Kennedy a killer. Today's Hartford Courant reports that Shays lashed out at Kennedy while defending Speaker Dennis Hastert's handling of Foleygate. Kennedy campaigned for Shays' Dem foe Diane Farrell last week. Shays, referring to Kennedy's 1969 car accident, said: "I know the speaker didn't go over a bridge and leave a young person in the water, and then have a press conference the next day. Dennis Hastert didn't kill anybody." (Emphasis added.) Farrell's response: "This is symptomatic of Chris losing his composure in a tight race."

Uh oh. John McCain has bailed out of an event at which he was scheduled to come in and stump for embattled NRCC chief Tom Reynolds. McCain's replacement? A man whose approval rating is in the 20s. The Buffalo News reports:

Erie County Republicans on Tuesday quickly recruited White House power hitter Karl Rove to speak at their annual black-tie dinner Oct. 20 after the front-runner for the party's presidential nomination, Sen. John McCain, dropped out unexpectedly.

In addition to speaking at the dinner, McCain was scheduled to lead a rally in Buffalo for embattled Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, R-Clarence. McCain's office Tuesday scrubbed both events, claiming that the popular Arizona Republican had a scheduling conflict.

Over at TPMmuckraker, Paul Kiel details the rash of other sudden scheduling conflicts afflicting people involved in Foleygate.

Why is the Iraq war so unpopular? GOP Senator Rick Santorum claims it's because of George Bush's bad public relations skills. In an interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Santorum said of Bush: "He is managing the public relations on this war very poorly." Santorum added that Bush is more concerned with "making the State Department comfortable" than providing the American people with "a clear message and a clear understanding of what we are up against." There's more: As Think Progress noted, Santorum had sharp words for America's friends abroad, too. "I don't care if we offend our allies in the Middle East," Santorum said. Senatorial.

CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep "Mean Jean" Schmidt and Dem challenger Victoria Wulsin from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored":

Among the factors contributing to CQ’s ratings change is the National Republican Congressional Committee’s independent expenditure of $22,000 on Oct. 9 on mail pieces that criticize Wulsin...

The NRCC’s payment is a meager outlay, but the party’s national House campaign unit surely would not have expended those funds if it believed Schmidt was politically safe...

Wulsin has little political experience but an interesting resume. She holds a doctorate in public health, specializing in epidemiology, and was the runner-up in the June 2005 Democratic primary election won by [Iraq vet Paul] Hackett.

CQ's full analysis here.

“Whither Foleygate?” ?!?

To explain the odd punctuation, several reports and pieces in recent days claim to show or argue that Foleygate will have little impact on how voters vote in less than 4 weeks. The Midterm Roundup would like to ask those reports and pieces, “Um, are you serious?”

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