GOP Rep. Chris Shays lashed out at his own party's national strategists today for sending out a flyer which accused his Dem opponent Diane Farrell of wanting to have "coffee talk with the Taliban." Shays posted a statement on his website slamming the flyer, which was sent out by the NRCC, as "outrageous" and as "garbage," saying that it was "an insult to the intelligence of the Fourth District." He added that the NRCC had "crossed the line." Shays' broadside against his party came a day after Election Central posted the flyer and called Shays' office to inquire whether he viewed the flyer's accusations as acceptable political rhetoric. His full statement after the jump.

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Responding to criticism of a NRCC mailer accusing opponent Diane Farrell of wanting to have "Coffee with the Taliban," embattled Republican Congressman Christopher Shays castigated his party's election committee and said it had "crossed the line." He called the ad "outrageous," "an insult to the intelligence of the Fourth District," and "garbage," and demanded the NRCC stop. Shays, who is in a tight race for reelection, has been under fire this week for calling Senator Ted Kennedy a "killer" and dismissing Abu Ghraib as just "a sex ring."

The full text of his statement is below the fold.

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GOP Rep. Christopher Shays' admonished the National Republican Congressional Committee yesterday for distributing a mailer attacking his Dem opponent with the slogan "Diane Farrell: Coffee Talk with the TALIBAN." In a statement, Shays called on the NRCC to "put an end to sending this type of garbage to Fourth District mailboxes," adding that the attack was "an insult to the intelligence" of the district's residents. Numerous Conn. Democrats, including Sen. Christopher Dodd, also condemned the NRCC's mailing. "This is absolutely the worst kind of politics in America," Dodd said during a press conference addressing the fliers.

The NRCC isn't investing any serious money in the race for Tom DeLay's seat between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. "National Republicans were supposed to invest $3 million to $4 million to help Sekula-Gibbs," reports the Associated Press. "So far, however, she's received just $134,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee." Lampson had $2.2 million as of June 30th. Meanwhile, other GOP House candidates are swimming in cash: The NRCC yesterday dumped a staggering $9.3 million into a bunch of other races. Reader DK, guestblogging over at TPM, has the breakdown of NRCC spending here.

The NRCC isn't investing any serious money in the race between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs for the seat of outgoing Rep. Tom DeLay. "National Republicans were supposed to invest $3 million to $4 million to help Sekula-Gibbs," reports the Associated Press. "So far, however, she's received just $134,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee." Meanwhile, the NRCC yesterday dumped a staggering $9.3 million into a bunch of other House races. Reader DK has the breakdown over at TPM.

That's the intriguing question being asked by Charles Mahtesian, the editor of the Almanac of American Politics, in the current National Journal:

Congressional party-switching has been an almost exclusively Democratic malady for more than a quarter-century. When the occasional Republican like Jeffords or then-Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire did leave the family, the defector became an independent, never going so far as to formally join the Democratic ranks. (Smith, in fact, returned to the GOP fold in November 1999, less than a year after leaving it for a short-lived presidential bid.)

However, if the Democrats retake the House this November 7, the self-serving calculus used by a generation of Southern politicians in defecting from the Democratic Party may well begin to make sense for nail-biting, blue-state Republicans across the Northeast and in parts of the Midwest as they begin to ponder a future without chairmanships, a future weighed down by the drag of a socially conservative, Southern- and Western-based national party.

CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between incumbent GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee and Dem challenger Sheldon Whitehouse from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":

The national Republican Party’s heavy intervention [in the GOP primary] left Chafee with two big problems coming out of the primary.

Those conservatives who strongly backed Laffey — and who believed the national party should have left the decision up to the state’s Republican voters — were left with hard feelings.

At the other end of the spectrum, Democrat Whitehouse used the primary as ammunition for his argument that Chafee is more of a party loyalist and less of a maverick than his image suggests, and that he is now more beholden that ever to Republican leaders. To implement change in Washington, say Whitehouse and fellow Democrats, Rhode Islanders must replace Chafee.

CQ also notes that Whitehouse was spared a tough primary and that he's got twice the cash on hand that Chafee does. CQ's full analysis here.

Okay, I've got a bit more for you on the appearance of a "George Felix Allen" in the records of the Albemarle Circut Court in the early 1970s. As noted below, the court clerk, Shelby Marshall, confirmed to me in an interview earlier today that a picture posted at DailyKos showing a "George Felix Allen" appearance in 1974 court records is genuine. Now I've spoken with Marshall a second time, and she's confirmed that a second photo of a second court records entry involving a "George Felix Allen" is genuine, too. So now we know that "George Felix Allen" appeared in court records twice in the early 1970s. The clerk's confirmed it. But for what offense or offenses?

The second entry is depicted here:

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The already-tight race between GOP Rep. Curt Weldon and Dem challenger Joe Sestak just got a heck of a lot tighter. McClatchy Newspapers is reporting that the Justice Department is probing whether Weldon traded political influence in exchange for lucrative lobbying contracts for his daughter. TPMmuckraker's Paul Kiel provides much needed context and backstory here.

Rep. Chris Shays has now clarified his Wednesday remarks about Abu Ghairb, in which Shays asserted that what happened at the notorious prison "wasn't torture" and was just a "sex ring." Shays acknowledged to the Associated Press today that what happened at the prison was in fact torture. But he offered a curious qualification, saying "it was torture because sex abuse is torture." He added that his earlier remarks had been prompted by photos of "naked Iraqis, naked Americans, Americans having sex." It was unclear from his comments which disturbed Shays more -- the images of abuse or the images of sex.

(Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.)

Check out this new mailing sent out by the NRCC. It accuses Diane Farrell, the Dem challenger to GOP Rep Chris Shays, of wanting to have a "Coffee Talk with the Taliban":

To back up this charge, the flyer says simply that Farrell's candidacy "is endorsed by an organization with a leader who wanted someone to sit down and have a talk with the Taliban." The group isn't named. But NRCC spokesman Ed Patru tells Election Central that the organization in question is the Council for a Livable World, a moderate think tank previously cited in GOP advertising.

No further evidence beyond the unnamed leader of the Council who supposedly advocated talks with the Taliban was offered to support the belief that Farrell herself believes anything like this. The full mailing after the jump.

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I just got off the phone with the clerk at the Albemarle Circuit Court. She has told me that a photo now floating around the internet -- one which shows a court entry for one "George Felix Allen" in 1974 -- represents real court records.

The photo was posted by DailyKos diarist Crell Moset. It's right here:

If you look at the second line down, you'll see: "Allen, George Felix." What is the record for? The clerk, Shelby Marshall, told me that the record is not necessarily of an arrest warrant, though it could have been. She said the record could be reflecting anything from a summons for an unpaid parking ticket all the way up to an arrest warrant for a misdemeanor for something like assault and battery, and that she doesn't have any more information.

I've emailed the Allen campaign for comment, and haven't heard back yet. A full explanation after the jump.

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GOP Rep. Christopher Shays said that what happened at Abu Gharib "wasn't torture"; it was merely a "sex ring." Today's Stamford Advocate reports that Shays made the comment during a debate Wednesday night with Dem challenger Diane Farrell. Here's what Shays told the audience: "Now I've seen what happened in Abu Ghraib, and Abu Ghraib was not torture. It was outrageous, outrageous involvement of National Guard troops from [Maryland] who were involved in a sex ring and they took pictures of soldiers who were naked." Farrell responded to the paper: "For Chris to say it was a sex ring is to minimize what happened. Chris knows it was certainly more than a sex ring." Update: Here's the video.

The NRCC yesterday sank $442,289.83 into some 39 House races across the country, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. The cash — which is earmarked for TVads, mailers and phone banks — is virtually all going to attacks on Dem opponents. You can view a detailed breakdown of the spending here. Meanwile, Dems yesterday pumped $143,599.51 into 10 House races.

The national GOP isn't giving any money for ads to help GOP Senator Rick Santorum hang on to his seat against Dem Bob Casey, raising questions about whether national Republican strategists have privately given up on the incumbent's campaign. Today's Patriot-News reports that neither the RNC nor the NRSC has reserved any air time at Pennsylvania TV stations for "independent expenditure ads for Santorum or against Casey. Though an NRSC spokesman denied to the paper that the committee had given up on Santorum, recent polls show Santorum trailing badly behind. And while the RNC isn't really helping Santorum, it's investing heavily in Senate races in Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio.

“Whither Foleygate?” ?!? Part 2

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That eye-opening number on the Missouri Senate race we promised you earlier? Here it is: A new SurveyUSA poll finds that Dem challenger Claire McCaskill is pulling away from GOP Senator Jim Talent -- she now leads Talent 51%-42%. Previous polls have shown a statistical dead heat. A key footnote in today's poll: There's been a big swing in independent support. Independents backed Talent by 12 points last month, but now support McCaskill by 13 -- a 25 point shift. As noted below, Missouri is one of the three Senate races the Republican National Committee is now sinking money into in a last-ditch effort to stave off more and more likely losses in the Senate.

This one surprises us a bit, because the last couple of polls showed sizeable leads for GOP Rep John Sweeney, but CQ has now downgraded its rating of the race between Sweeney and Dem Kirsten Gillibrand from "Leans Republican" to "Toss up":

Gillibrand, an attorney and first-time candidate for public office, on Tuesday sent an open letter to Sweeney requesting he release information regarding police incidents earlier in his career, including an arrest for driving while intoxicated...

It was another step in Gillibrand’s efforts to tie Sweeney to the “culture of corruption” tag with which Democrats have been trying to bedevil Republicans throughout the 2006 campaign. In fact, Gillibrand was an early entry, issuing accusations as early as last January that Sweeney was joining lobbyists on ski trips while ignoring the district’s problems.

The contest is front and center for the national Democratic Party, which sees the upstate 20th as an only mildly Republican-leaning district — President Bush took a modest 53 percent there in 2004 — that is ripe for a partisan takeover...The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lists the race in its “Red to Blue” program — its roster of highly competitive races that the party hopes to switch from Republican red to Democratic blue on electoral maps — and has spent $110,000 on the race in recent weeks.

CQ's full roundup of New York races is here.

This new TV ad from Dem nominee Steve Kagen — who's running against state Assembly Speaker John Gard in a narrowly Republican district — takes a novel approach to attacking the GOP for running up massive budget deficits. Looking directly into the camera, Kagen says: "I'm a Democrat because I'm too conservative to be a Republican, the way they spend money in Washington."

Okay, so Election Central has now tallied up the big-picture impact that the two-week period since Foleygate broke has had on the nation's few-dozen competitive House races. We did this by counting up all the House races which had their ratings changed by CQ Politics and Cook Political Report since Foleygate hit the news on Sept. 29. We chose CQ and Cook because they both neatly date their ratings changes. Our grand total: 29 races have shifted favorably for Dems since the Foley scandal first hit. Only one has shifted in favor of the GOP. View our full list after the jump.

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Check out the latest attack ad from sinking GOP Senator Conrad Burns: It slams Dem challenger Jon Tester for his ties to "radicals" and "extremists." Who are these radicals and extremists? For one thing, the ad attacks Tester for taking campaign donations steered his way by...the people at Daily Kos. It also attacks Tester for being supported by the "radicals" at the Council for a Livable World, a think tank opposed to the Iraq war which regularly supports Republicans and whose board includes former national security officials and military officers.

The Billings Gazette has a bracing fact-check of the ad here. More after the jump.

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Foleygate has seriously eroded support for Speaker Dennis Hastert in his own district, the first post-Foleygate poll of his race shows. The poll — which is in the new batch of polls from Constituent Dynamics released today — finds that Hastert is leading Dem candidate John Laesch 52%-42%. It's a sizeable lead, of course. But remember that the Speaker got 69% of the vote in his last election. So his support's plunged some 17 points. Assuming Hastert is re-elected come November, it's a safe bet that it will be by his lowest majority ever.

Jack Murtha is coming to Ohio to campaign for Dem Victoria Wulsin -- and against Wulsin's GOP opponent, "Mean Jean" Schmidt, the woman who memorably called Murtha a "coward" a year ago. Today's Cincinnati Post reports that Murtha will invade Mean Jean's district on behalf of Wulsin this coming Saturday. For Murtha, this may amount to more than run-of-the-mill campaigning. Last November, after Murtha called for withdrawal from Iraq, Mean Jean said: "Cowards cut and run, Marines never do." Murtha, of course, was a Marine. For old time's sake, we're hauling out the video of Mean Jean's "coward" moment. View it here.

In a tough new mailing, GOP Rep Curt Weldon is slamming Dem challenger Joe Sestak for not living in Pennsylvania for the "past three decades":

title="Weldon Mailer Clipping" width="551" height="145" />

So where has Sestak been all this time, anyway? Answer: In the Navy. No mention of that in the flyer, incidentally.

GOP Rep John Doolittle put on quite a show last night at his debate with Dem challenger Charlie Brown. First Doolittle asserted that Iraq did have weapons of mass destruction. Then he dismissed Brown's recounting of his military service and how it convinced him there were no WMD in Iraq — Brown's an Air Force vet who flew recon missions over Iraq when it was under sanctions — as a "ridiculous story." And perhaps best of all, here's what he said when an audience member drew attention to the fact that he'd hired his own wife, Julie Doolittle, to raise campaign cash for him at a 15 percent commission: "They want to drag my poor wife into this." The Sacramento Bee has an entertaining rundown here. More after the jump.

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In today's New York Times GOP incumbent Deborah Pryce admits that her friendship with Mark Foley has done her bid for reelection serious damage:

[Pryce] said in an interview on a tense day of campaigning here, her own internal polls have measured a steady drop in support under the weight of attacks by Mary Jo Kilroy, her Democratic opponent.

Ms. Kilroy has emphasized Ms. Pryce’s connections to Mr. Foley, who was on a list of five people Ms. Pryce said she considered Washington friends in the Columbus Monthly interview.

“I’m totally convinced,” Ms. Pryce said, her voice faint, as she described why her support had declined. “All our polling showed we were going in the right direction until this happened. It fell precipitously.”

Larry Sabato's latest:

For the first time this year, your cautious Crystal Ball now projects a Democratic majority of somewhere between 221 and 225 seats (with 218 needed for control). In fact, to reflect just how precipitously many GOP-held seats have drifted from safe harbor, we have had to jettison not only the "Dirty Thirty" but now the "Ferocious Forty" as well. In their place, meet the "Ferocious FIFTY" theaters of battle, 42 of which are currently held by Republicans. It is indeed noteworthy that since last month's update, the Crystal Ball can now count an additional ten House districts as truly competitive (rated either as a Toss-up or "leaning" towards one party in our chart below).

In the Senate we believe that control of the body is up for grabs, with Democrats nearly sure to win 15 out of the 33 total seats up this year. Four more seats are on the edge but leaning slightly towards the Democrats. The five total toss-ups will determine which party organizes the upper chamber, and the Democrats will likely need to capture all five of them to take control, a reasonable possibility given the dynamics of each race in that category.

Sabato's cautionary note: "Just as the headlines, and the drift of this election, shifted almost overnight in a Democratic direction in the past two weeks, so too can events at home and abroad transform the headlines again." View his handy chart here.

So it looks as if Dem Sherrod Brown may be pulling away from GOP Senator Mike DeWine. A new SurveyUSA poll shows Brown now leading DeWine by 14 points, 54%-40%. A key footnote: Since the last SurveyUSA poll in late September, Brown has gone up two points, while DeWine has dropped two points. DeWine is sinking despite the fact that in an unusual move, the Republican National Committee has chosen Ohio as one of three Senate races (usually the province mainly of the NRSC) it's investing heavily in as part of a last-ditch effort to bail out struggling GOPers. The other two states are Tennessee and Missouri. A preview: Some equally eye-opening numbers are coming on the Missouri race later today.

GOP Rep Richard Pombo — who's locked in a tighter-than-expected contest with Dem Jerry McNerney — has just released a new radio ad claiming that McNerney "thinks the war on terror is a joke." The ad goes an extra step and accuses McNerney of saying "that North Korea should be allowed to develop nuclear weapons without fear of U.S. military intervention." In a final display of stock GOP rhetoric, the ad insinuates that if you vote for the Dem, you just might, well, die. It concludes: "Is there a difference between Richard Pombo and Jerry McNerney on the war on terror? You bet your life there is." Listen to it here.

Dems are poised for big gains in Indiana. CQ Politics has just revised its ratings in two key Indiana House races -- and both shifts downgrade the hopes of GOP incumbents. CQ's changed the rating of the race between GOP Rep John Hostettler and Dem Brad Ellsworth from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." And it's also shifted the rating in the contest between GOP Rep Chris Chocola and Dem Joe Donnelly from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." CQ's full analysis here.

Hypocrisy Alert. Republican Rick O'Donnell has made the need to "clean up Congress" one of his campaign themes this year, even laying out a 12-point plan of how to do so, but now his own ethics are coming under scrutiny due to an expense-paid trip to Panama he took with his girlfriend while he was the head of the Colorado Commission on Higher Education. The Denver Post has the details here.

On the lighter side, Dem Kirsten Gillibrand has just released a new ad rapping GOP Rep John Sweeney for a recent boozy excursion to a late-night frat party which got him in some trouble. The ad's key line quotes the Beastie Boys: "We deserve a Congressman who will fight for more than his right to party." Why focus on Sweeney's partying in a dorm? Easy: It's a subtle allusion to Foleygate. As Ben Smith of The Daily Politics notes, the ad "is an attempt to paint John Sweeney -- who was allegedly drunk at a frat party -- with Mark Foley, who allegedly showed up drunk at congressional page dorms." The acting in the ad is pretty awful, but it's still worth a look. You can view it here.

The NRCC has sent out a mailing in Illinois' sixth attacking Dem House candidate Tammy Duckworth on Social Security. The flyer comes enclosed in this envelope:

As you can see, the envelope's color and its eagle stamp -- as well as its lack of anything identifying the source as the NRCC on the front -- suggest that recipients are meant to think it's an official government mailing on Social Security. Then, when recipients open it, they find a mailing attacking Duckworth (view it after the jump). So Duckworth supporters are asking:

Does the mailer conform to laws which place restrictions on imitations of official government mail?

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CQ Politics has changed its rating for the race between GOP Rep. Dave Reichert and Dem Darcy Burner from "Leans Republcian" to "No Clear Favorite":

Democrat Darcy Burner’s challenge to freshman Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in Washington’s 8th District has become one of the year’s key battleground races -- as evidenced by the fact that the national parties poured nearly $1 million dollars into this contest in the last two weeks...

Independent polls indicate that Burner, a former Microsoft executive making her first bid for public office, is gaining ground in this partisan swing district in suburban Seattle.

Reichert has positioned himself as a moderate from the beginning of his tenure, but recently boldly underlined his reputation as a “centrist” in his releases...

The National Republican Congressional Committee -- the GOP’s national House campaign unit — spent at least $728,000 from Sept. 29 through Oct. 9 on an independent expenditure campaign opposing Burner.

CQ's full analysis here. Meanwhile, CQ has also changed the ratiing in Oregon's 5th District race between Dem Rep. Darlene Hooley and GOPer Mike Erickson from "Safe Democratic" to "Democrat Favored."

"I don't believe it." That's GOP gubernatorial candidate and Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell's response to Bob Woodward's account of President Bush calling him a "nut" in 2004. Speaking to the Cincinnati Enquirer's editorial board Tuesday, Blackwell dismissed the anecdote as something he couldn't comprehend. “Why would anyone think he did say that?" Blackwell pondered out loud. "I’ve known him half of my adult life.’’ We at Election Central have our own question: Could it be half a lifetime's knowledge that led Bush to conclude that Blackwell is a "nut?"

Is the race between Kansas GOP Rep Jim Ryun and Dem challenger Nancy Boyda shaping up as competitive? Today's Lawrence Journal-World reports that the Boyda campaign released a new internal poll which says the race is statistically tied at 43% for Ryun and 42% for Boyda. What's more, Dick Cheney will be in the district fundraising tomorrow for Ryun, suggesting at least some GOP concern. National observers are cautious about rating the race due to the lack of public polling. The National Journal's Chuck Todd hasn't ranked it in his top 50 competetive races. Nonetheless, Todd tells Election Central: "It's the type of race that in a wave environment could go."

The NY Sun today has a strange piece today on the RNC. It seems that an RNC staffer accidentally sent an email intended for the Secret Service - complete with date of birth, race and Social Security number - to a Sun reporter.

GOP Rep Richard Pombo's race against Dem challenger Jerry McNerney may have just gotten a heck of a lot tougher, thanks to a whammo visited on Pombo by the Associated Press today. TPMmuckraker's Paul Kiel explains.

Heath Shuler, NASCAR Dem? Former NFL quarterback Shuler, a conservative Dem running in a conservative district, is shelling out $10,000 to advertise on a car competing in the Busch Series race this Friday, the Associated Press reports. Shuler, who's for gun rights and against abortion and is battling to unseat Rep Charles Taylor, isn't the first Dem to advertise on a race car: Florida Sen. Bob Graham sponsored a Ford that raced in NASCAR's truck series in the leadup to the 2004 Presidential primaries.

The campaign of GOP incumbent Dave Reichert has agreed to fix one of their attack ads on Dem challenger Darcy Burner over the misquoting of an article from the Seattle Times. The issue at hand is the use of this article that critiqued the campaign ads from both camps. The ad states that, “after weeks of Darcy Burner’s negative campaigning, the Seattle Times cried foul for falsely attacking Dave Reichert’s support of veterans.” The proof of this is a quote from the Times piece that says, “Burner’s charges hurt by inaccuracies.” The only problem is that no such quote appears in the article. Nowhere in the article does it say that the Seattle Times is crying foul, but instead states that the Reichert campaign was objecting to a characterization made in a Burner ad about Reichert’s support of veterans. For a full rundown of the ad see here.

Karl Rove is emerging as the go-to guy to replace all the featured guests who are cancelling fundraising and political appearances because of Foleygate. The Associated Press reports today that Rove is the new featured host of a Washington fundraiser for Ohio House candidate Joy Padgett that was supposed to be headlined by Hastert until he pulled out a few days ago. As Election Central noted earlier today, Rove is also rushing in to host a political event for Tom Reynolds — also badly damaged by Foleygate — after John McCain bailed on the event. The GOP scandals are so bad that Rove is the only one left candidates will allow themselves to be seen with.

So the Associated Press has picked up our story about the soldier who appeared in an ad for GOP Senator Mike DeWine. And AP moved the ball a bit by confirming that the soldier is real. As Election Central first reported yesterday, the Army is reviewing the ad to determine whether the appearance of someone in uniform violated Defense Department regs barring uniformed military personnel from appearing in partisan contexts. The AP's pickup says: "DeWine spokesman Brian Seitchik declined to give information about the soldier, except that he is a real soldier, not an actor. He said the appearance did not violate military regulations." That's for the Army to determine in their review, however. Stay tuned.

GOP Rep Chris Shays is calling Dem Senator Ted Kennedy a killer. Today's Hartford Courant reports that Shays lashed out at Kennedy while defending Speaker Dennis Hastert's handling of Foleygate. Kennedy campaigned for Shays' Dem foe Diane Farrell last week. Shays, referring to Kennedy's 1969 car accident, said: "I know the speaker didn't go over a bridge and leave a young person in the water, and then have a press conference the next day. Dennis Hastert didn't kill anybody." (Emphasis added.) Farrell's response: "This is symptomatic of Chris losing his composure in a tight race."

Uh oh. John McCain has bailed out of an event at which he was scheduled to come in and stump for embattled NRCC chief Tom Reynolds. McCain's replacement? A man whose approval rating is in the 20s. The Buffalo News reports:

Erie County Republicans on Tuesday quickly recruited White House power hitter Karl Rove to speak at their annual black-tie dinner Oct. 20 after the front-runner for the party's presidential nomination, Sen. John McCain, dropped out unexpectedly.

In addition to speaking at the dinner, McCain was scheduled to lead a rally in Buffalo for embattled Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, R-Clarence. McCain's office Tuesday scrubbed both events, claiming that the popular Arizona Republican had a scheduling conflict.

Over at TPMmuckraker, Paul Kiel details the rash of other sudden scheduling conflicts afflicting people involved in Foleygate.

Why is the Iraq war so unpopular? GOP Senator Rick Santorum claims it's because of George Bush's bad public relations skills. In an interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Santorum said of Bush: "He is managing the public relations on this war very poorly." Santorum added that Bush is more concerned with "making the State Department comfortable" than providing the American people with "a clear message and a clear understanding of what we are up against." There's more: As Think Progress noted, Santorum had sharp words for America's friends abroad, too. "I don't care if we offend our allies in the Middle East," Santorum said. Senatorial.

CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep "Mean Jean" Schmidt and Dem challenger Victoria Wulsin from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored":

Among the factors contributing to CQ’s ratings change is the National Republican Congressional Committee’s independent expenditure of $22,000 on Oct. 9 on mail pieces that criticize Wulsin...

The NRCC’s payment is a meager outlay, but the party’s national House campaign unit surely would not have expended those funds if it believed Schmidt was politically safe...

Wulsin has little political experience but an interesting resume. She holds a doctorate in public health, specializing in epidemiology, and was the runner-up in the June 2005 Democratic primary election won by [Iraq vet Paul] Hackett.

CQ's full analysis here.

“Whither Foleygate?” ?!?

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A new poll released this morning by the Hartford Courant shows that Ned Lamont is trailing the incumbent Senator by eight points -- a slightly smaller gap than recent polls have shown, but still a significant margin. Today's Courant poll finds Lieberman leading Lamont 48%-40% among likely voters. A key footnote: The poll also finds that eight percent of respondents are undecided, and around 15% of supporters on each side could still change their minds between now and election day.

Dem Jack Davis goes up on the air attacking floundering NRCC chief Tom Reynolds over Foleygate: "Reynolds says he did nothing wrong. But when it comes to protecting kids, isn't it wrong to do nothing?"

Ben Smith of The Daily Politics finds a problem: The ad, he notes, "suggests that he urged Foley to seek reelection because Foley had given $100,000 to the NRCC -- though those things happened in the reverse order."

CQ Politics has just changed the rating of the race between Dem Charlie Wilson and GOPer Chuck Blasdel from "No Clear Favorite" to "Democrat Favored":

An early gaffe by the Democratic nominee in Ohio’s 6th District might paradoxically end up paving the way for his victory on Nov. 7: Analysts and strategists say Democratic state Sen. Charlie Wilson’s successful write-in campaign for the May 2 primary, the consequence of his embarrassing failure to qualify for the primary ballot, proved his political organizing skills.

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which orchestrates the party’s national campaign for control of the House, told The Vindicator newspaper of Youngstown last year that the district was "the Republicans’ No. 1 targeted open seat in the country."

Yet...

More from CQ after the jump.

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Today brought more huge infusions of cash from the national GOP into House races across the country. The NRCC, for instance, today sank $1,721,767.77 into around two dozen Congressional races (see a detailed breakdown of the expenditures here). The massive blast of cash comes right after an NRCC spokesman told Fox News that 90 percent of its remaining ad budget would go to negative ads.

The DSCC has a new ad up hammering GOP Senator George Allen, and it starts out by saying it will stick to the issues, highlighting Allen's vote against body armor for the troops and his opposition to hiking the minimum wage. (Allen, who's been reeling from scandal after scandal, recently expressed a desire for the campaign to be about the issues.) But the ad can't resist a quick "Macaca" dig at the end: It closes with footage of a grinning Allen uttering the now-infamous slur.

90 percent. That's how much of the National Republican Campaign Committee's ad budget will be spent on so-called "contrast" ads between now and election day, according to NRCC spokesman Ed Patru. The spokesman divulged the figure in an interview with Fox News. "Contrast" ads, of course, are negative ads. Patru boasted to Fox News that the NRCC's opposition researchers have been digging up dirt on Dem candidates for "over a year and a half." Just last week, the NRCC sank $7.8 million into 30 House races across the country -- almost all of it earmarked for negative campaigning.

Ned Lamont has just released a new ad attacking Joe Lieberman in his own words -- in Lieberman's words, that is. The screen shows a youngish Lieberman 18 years ago, during the campaign in which he unseated then-Senator Lowell Weicker in 1988, and quotes him making promises about attendance and voting which the Lamont campaign contends he's broken. It concludes by quoting the young Lieberman as follows: "After 18 years, it’s time for somebody new. It’s time for a change." The narrator rejoins: "Finally he’s telling the truth!" View it here.

GOP Senator Mike DeWine's campaign is refusing to say whether a soldier appearing in one of the campaign's political ads is an actor or a real member of the military. The ad -- which ran roughly in the last week of September and the first week of October and is right here -- pictures family members of soldiers praising DeWine. For about three seconds, what appears to be an actual soldier is visible in uniform.

But a Department of Defense spokesperson has now told Election Central that "all military personnel...are prohibited from wearing military uniforms at political campaign or election events." The spokesman added that he'd "forwarded this matter over to the Army for review."

Check out our screen grab:

Election Central has left repeated messages with the DeWine campaign asking whether the man in the ad is real or an actor. None has been returned. More after the jump.

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Dem Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. blasted Republican Bob Corker in a press conference today for denying in Saturday's debate that he had ever advocated "staying the course" in Iraq. "There’s nothing wrong with changing your mind," Ford said. "But to make the point that you didn’t say something when you did say it, suggests there is not a seriousness to how you calculate this things.” Todd Womack, a spokesman for Corker, backpedaled for his boss, admitting to the Chattanooga Free Times that Corker had used the words "stay the course" before, but had "never described that as maintaining the status quo.” The Ford Report, a partisan TN blog, quickly found three past instances of Corker saying the US should "stay the course" in Iraq. Ford intends to press the issue further in a debate tonight at the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga.

Charlie Cook's latest:

Even allowing for a five-point historic skew in favor of Democrats for the generic ballot test, this is a real bad situation for the GOP...

[T]he Cook Political Report now rates three Republican House seats as leaning toward the Democrats, plus 25 more in the toss-up column. There are no longer any Democratic seats at comparable levels of vulnerability. Fifteen more GOP seats are in the lean-Republican column, bringing the total number of GOP seats in competitive races to 43 (including the three in the lean-Democratic category), with 16 more in the likely Republican column -- not clearly competitive today but worth watching if things remain bad or get worse for Republicans.

On the Senate side, Republicans now have seven seats in the toss-up column, which is one more than Democrats need to gain a majority. Democrats have one seat in the toss-up column, in New Jersey, where appointed Sen. Robert Menendez is locked in a very tight battle. Incumbents Conrad Burns of Montana and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania remain the two most-endangered Republicans, followed by George Allen of Virginia, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Mike DeWine of Ohio. In Missouri, Jim Talent may be in a tiny bit less danger. Then there is the open seat in Tennessee, where Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is running at least even with former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) in current polls.

It is no longer far-fetched to see how Democrats could win six Republican seats, or even seven -- which would be necessary for them to gain a majority if they lose one of their own seats...

Four weeks is a lifetime in politics and the tide still could shift. But for Republicans to salvage their majorities in the House and Senate, quite a bit would have to change.

Cook's full analysis here.

Check out this new ad blasting NRCC chief Tom Reynolds for his mishandling of Foleygate. The ad was funded by Majority Action, a 527 running ads upstate which was set up by big Dem operatives like former DNC chairs Joe Andrew and Don Fowler. You hear spooky piano music as literally dozens of adjectives flash on the screen (beastly, vile, sleazy, etc.), along with discolored pics of Reynolds and Dennis Hastert. It concludes: "Tell Tom Reynolds and Republican leaders to drop the politics. Stop the cover-up. Tell the truth, or resign." As Capitol Confidential observes: "Someone really gave the thesaurus a workout on this one." View it here.

I just got off the phone with Rev. Al Sharpton, and in an interview he blasted the Joe Lieberman campaign as "ugly," saying one of its tactics "borders on racism." Sharpton was referring to a comment made by Lieberman spokesperson Tammy Sun in today's Daily News, where she described Sharpton as "one of Ned Lamont's closest advisers." Sharpton claims that characterization is false. "I’ve given more advice to Joe Lieberman than I've given to Ned Lamont," Sharpton told Election Central, referring to his 2000 endorsement of the Gore-Lieberman ticket. More after the jump.

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Maybe it does have something to do with Foley after all. As TPMmuckraker reported earlier today, the GOP cited "scheduling conflicts" to explain why Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL.) and NRCC Chairman Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY.) canceled fundraising appearances with GOP Rep. Don Sherwood. But Jake O'Donnell, a spokesman for the Sherwood campaign, admitted that the Foley scandal played a role in the cancelations, telling the AP that pressure from Sherwood's Dem opponent Chris Carney was also a factor. Carney had issued a statement yesterday chastizing Sherwood for not canceling the appearance with Reynolds.

The fifth district in Colorado Springs has been held by the GOP since its creation in 1972 -- but in another sign of mounting GOP travails, a new poll released today shows that Republicans are in serious danger of losing the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Rep. Joel Hefley. The Denver Post reports today that a new Mason-Dixon poll -- the first public poll on the race, it appears -- shows that Dem Jay Fawcett is tied with GOPer Doug Lamborn for the seat, at 37% apiece. The Post notes that the district is two-to-one Republican. Says Bob Loevy, political-science professor at Colorado College: "It appears that Lamborn is now the first Republican who has ever had to fight hard to take that seat."

Amid signs that worry is mounting in national GOP circles about the fate of GOP Senator Mike DeWine, the National Republican Senatorial Committee yesterday dumped another $1,135,240.00 into negative ads targeting Dem challenger Sherrod Brown, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. Meanwhile, the Toledo Blade reports today that the Brown campaign says it raised almost $3 million from July through Sept. 30.

It’s Tuesday, October 10. In 4 more Tuesdays we’ll go to the polls and vote on how we feel about what’s going on in this country. What is going on? Well that’s a good question, a mighty good question. Welcome to Day 1 of the Final Month of the 2006 Midterm Election Season.

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It just keeps on coming: CQ Politics has now shifted ratings in two more House races. CQ has moved the race in New York's 19th, where GOP Rep Sue Kelly is fending off former rock star John Hall, from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican": "Far more tangential and less publicized, but still potentially damaging politically, is the question of whether Kelly herself knew about Foley’s lewd behavior during her tenure as Republican chairwoman of the House Page Board from 1998 to 2001." And CQ has also moved Ohio's 13th, where Dem Betty Sutton is battling GOPer Craig Foltin for the seat of Dem Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored." Question: When was the last time CQ changed its ratings to favor the GOP?

CQ Politcs has changed the ratings for three more House races tonight, bringing today's total to five -- Every one of them positive for Democrats.

* In Fl-13, the race between GOPer Vern Buchanan and Dem Christine Jennings changed from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican":

Buchanan benefits from the Republican leanings of the Gulf Coast district, which Harris left open to run for the Senate. And Buchanan — a wealthy car dealer and longtime GOP fundraiser — has a big edge in campaign money over the Democratic nominee, former banker Christine Jennings.

But with the GOP facing a bad and worsening national political environment, and Buchanan still bruised from attacks by Republican primary opponents about his personal business practices, the times are anything but normal.

* In OH-13, the race between Democrat Betty Sutton and Republican Craig Fultin changed from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored":

...it has been an uphill climb for the GOP in the race for the 13th District seat that Ohio Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown left open to run for the Senate.

The district, which links suburbs of Cleveland to part of Akron and that city’s suburbs, has a pronounced if not lopsided Democratic lean. The Democrats nominated a solid candidate of their own in former state Rep. Betty Sutton.

And Republicans’ hopes for a late campaign surge by Foltin have been hobbled by the darkening of an already cloudy national political environment for the Republican Party.

* In NY-19, the race between Dem John Hall and GOPer Sue W. Kelly changed from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican":

But the difficulties faced this year by the national Republican Party; the emergence of a strong and attention-grabbing Democratic challenger in John Hall, literally a former rock star; and now the acrid scandal involving resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley — to which Hall and fellow Democrats are trying to tie Kelly — have made this year’s race far more treacherous for the incumbent.

Check out today's other changes here and here.

Woah. CQ's just changed the ratings on the race between Dem Jack Davis and Tom Reynolds -- who's in charge of keeping the House in GOP hands -- from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democratic." Says CQ of Reynolds: "His past popularity, strong fundraising advantage and the Republican lean in his upstate New York district gives him at least a chance of reversing the tide running strongly against him. But all of the momentum appears on the side of...Davis." Our favorite bit: "Reynolds spokesman L.D. Platt, however, told CQPolitics.com he was `not at all' concerned about the effect the scandal would have on the congressman’s re-election campaign." CQ's full analysis here.

The new USA Today/Gallup poll is out, and it finds Dems holding a 23-point lead over the GOP in the generic question of whether respondents intend to vote Dem or Republican in their Congressional races in November. Some eye-opening findings:

-- Dems are favored to do a better job on the three issues most important to respondents: government corruption, Iraq, and terrorism.

-- More than half -- 54% -- said Republican leaders who knew about Foley for months or years didn't act "for political reasons." Forty-three percent said House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign

-- Fifty-seven percent of registered voters want their own Rep relected, the lowest since right before the GOP takeover of Congress in 1994

-- President Bush's approval rating sank to 37%, a seven point drop since mid September

We'll bring you the full poll as soon as it's available.

The Natiional Republican Congressional Committee today sank $320,851.50 into House races in over a dozen states. Much of the cash went to negative phone-banking and mailers -- see a detailed breakdown of the spending here.

CQ Politics has just changed the rating for the House race between GOPer Don Sherwood and Dem Chris Carney from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite":

At the outset of the 2006 midterm campaign cycle, it would have been difficult to identify a more politically “safe” member than Pennsylvania Rep. Don Sherwood...Now it is difficult to find many House members who are more politically vulnerable...

Recent polling data indicate that a sizable portion of the district’s usually ample Republican electorate is shunning Sherwood — and that Carney may be emerging as the candidate to beat. An independent survey released Oct. 3...found that just 60 percent of self-identified Republicans are backing Sherwood, compared to 26 percent who are supporting Carney, who also has a big lead among self-identified independent voters...

The race could hinge on whether Sherwood, in the final four weeks of the campaign, can prevail upon Republicans who are disgusted by his affair to stick with him on policy grounds. Carney, meanwhile, will need to parry attacks from Republicans that he is too liberal for the district.

CQ's full analysis is here. Carney's most recent ad highlighting Sherwood's affair and "family values" problem (can anyone say Foleygate?) is here.

A new poll just released by CNN has found that a majority of Americans -- 52% -- think House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign from Congress in the wake of Foleygate. Only 31% think he shouldn't. The poll also finds that only 34% think "most" Dems are "unethical," while 44% think "most" Republicans are unethical. The CNN poll bests an earlier one from SurveyUSA which found that 45% think Hastert should go. Full CNN results here.

This is worth a look. The NRCC is running a new ad that blasts Zack Space, the frontrunning Dem candidate for Bob Ney's district, for taking a grand total of $5,000 from the D.C.-based Council for a Livable World. The ad hammers the the think tank for advocating for defense spending cuts and opposing missile defense systems, and it concludes that the Space-backing group is "radical" and "dangerous." But there's just one problem: As the Cleveland Plain-Dealer points out, the Council's board includes retired generals, it "was founded by scientists who developed the atomic bomb," and best of all, it is "generally considered centrist and regularly endorses Republicans." Radical it isn't. View the ad here.

Add Nancy Johnson to the long and growing list of Republican politicians who have reacted to the Foley scandal by implying it proves that the Democrats have something to hide. In a statement released on her campaign website, Johnson’s take on the Foley scandal is:

“If any leader from either party tried to cover up this information at the expense of the safety of our children, then they should resign their position immediately. It would be reprehensible if any Republican leader intentionally covered up the full facts of the case, and it would be equally reprehensible if Democrat leaders sat on this information for a year in order to release it 30 days before an election. I want an investigation to go forward to find out answers to these questions.”

Peter Roskam -- the GOP candidate who suggested that Dem vet amputee Tammy Duckworth wanted to "cut and run" from Iraq -- doesn't appear to be letting Foleygate prevent him from enjoying the fundraising help of Speaker Dennis Hastert. The embattled Hastert is headlining an upcoming private fundraiser for Roskam and GOP candidate David McSweeney, who's targeting Dem Rep Melissa Bean in Illinois' eighth, according to an invite obtained by Election Central. The event -- which also features President Bush -- is set for Oct. 12 at the Chicago Hilton. A Roskam rep declined comment. View the invite here.

Here's a measure of just how difficult things are going to be for Joe Negron, the GOP's replacement candidate for Mark Foley, given that Foley's name will still be on the ballot and Negron will get all votes cast for Foley: Joe Negron's 20-year-old son had difficulty voting for his own dad. The Palm Beach Post reports that Negron's son, a Florida State University student, voted early by absentee ballot in the general election. But young Negron told the paper that he had to "hold his nose" in order to bring himself to check the box by Foley's name. Moral: Even for those who know that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, it's still tough to overcome the negative visceral sensation of voting for "Mark Foley."

The NRCC is out in full force in Washington’s 8^th district, sending out a direct mailer that badly distorts the record of Dem challenger Darcy Burner. Among typical attacks that she would raise taxes, take money out of your pocket, and ironically, that she is running a negative campaign, comes the charge that she, “may want to give tax breaks to oil companies rather than helping hard working consumers who are being gouged at the pump.” This claim is not only false, but doubly dishonest, because it was her opponent Dave Reichert who actually voted for $14 billion in tax breaks for oil companies. On the mailer this claim was sourced to KOMO AM’s The Commentators, a Crossfire style talk radio show. For the Burner campaign’s full response to this latest mailer see here.

It looks as if NRCC chief Tom Reynolds may have gone much farther than is previously known to persuade Mark Foley to run for reelection this year. Robert Novak -- who on Friday reported that Reynolds persuaded Foley to run for reelection despite his rumored sexual problems -- has now expanded on that story. Novak has just reported that Reynolds persuaded Foley to run despite the fact that Foley had two plush private sector jobs offered to him this year. Novak says Reynolds persuaded him not to take the gigs. More coming.

Dem candidate Chris Carney has just launched another hard-hitting ad that hammers incumbent Republican Don Sherwood over allegations that he had an extramarital affair and physically abused his mistress. Key quote: "Don Sherwood campaigned on family values," one constituent says. "He has no family values." View the ad here.

Today's Washington Post reports that GOP Rep Jim Kolbe knew of Mark Foley's page problem as early as six years ago:

A spokeswoman for Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.) confirmed yesterday that a former page showed the congressman Internet messages that had made the youth feel uncomfortable with the direction Foley (R-Fla.) was taking their e-mail relationship...

The revelation pushes back by at least five years the date when a member of Congress has acknowledged learning of Foley's behavior with former pages.

Next question: Did Kolbe ever tell the GOP leadership about Foley? The Post piece doesn't address this question. Kolbe had six years to do it.

CQ Race-Rating Rampage ’06!

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CQ Politics today weighed in with a big-picture overview of many of its recent ratings changes to races, and its new macro-analysis finds that the GOP is in danger of losing both the Senate and the House:

As a result of these ratings changes, CQPolitics.com’s Balance of Power Scorecard now shows the Republicans short of a majority of seats in both chambers.

CQ also notes -- ominously for the GOP -- that "several additional ratings changes are imminent." CQ's full analysis here.

I just got off the phone with Timothy Heaphy, the lawyer for NRCC chief Tom Reynolds' former chief of staff, Kurt Fordham. And Heaphy's refusing to say whether or not Fordham warned Reynolds about Tom Foley's problem before Reynolds claims to have heard of it. That could spell trouble for Reynolds -- a full explanation after the jump.

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NRCC chief Tom Reynolds -- who's supposed to be spending all his time helping other GOP Reps keep their jobs -- is now losing by an eye-opening 15 points to Dem challenger Jack Davis, according to a new Zogby International poll done for the Buffalo News. The poll shows Davis leading with 48% of likely voters, to 33% for Reynolds -- a lead that has steadily widened over the last 10 days. The poll also found that of the substantial majority following Foleygate, 57 percent disapproved of Reynolds' handling of it, while only 25 percent approved.

Today's Times reports that Kirk Fordham, the former chief of staff to both NRCC chief Tom Reynolds and GOP Rep Mark Foley, expects to "testify under oath" to the House ethics committee "that he alerted the speaker’s office as early as 2003" about Mr. Foley's page problem. Now that ABC News has reported that a second source confirms parts of Fordham's account, everybody's rightly focused on what Dennis Hastert knew and when. But another question needs to be asked of Fordham: Did he or did he not tell Reynolds about Foley's problem -- before hearing about the salacious IMs? As best as I can determine, neither Fordham nor his laywer, Timothy Heaphy, have answered that key question.

From today's headlines: Time magazine declares the GOP revolution over...In Minnesota, the Star-Tribune reveals that the GOP House candidate running against Dem Muslim Keith Ellison was charged with domestic violence in 1995 and had the record expunged...In New Jersey, Rep Scott Garrett won't drop plans for a fundraiser with Speaker Dennis Hastert...also in Jersey, Dem Robert Menendez and GOPer Tom Kean slug it out in a debate, with Kean giving George Bush's presidency a "B minus"...and the Washington Post sums up Folegate's reverberations across the country, concluding that the scandal is a "metaphor" for a GOP which has "drawn more attention for ethical lapses and partisan turmoil than legislative achievements."