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Rothenberg: "Vulnerability Is Entirely On One Side Of The Partisan Aisle"

The latest analysis from nonpartisan observer Stuart Rothenberg:

[R]ight now there isn’t a single Democratic seat that ranks in the 25 most vulnerable House seats in the country.

Not one. Not a single one. The vulnerability is entirely on one side of the partisan aisle.

Interestingly, Rothenberg points to the lack of vulnerable Dem incumbents as proof that the conventional wisdom -- which holds that this will be an "anti-incumbent" election -- is flat out wrong. More Rothenberg after the jump.

More from Rothenberg:

We are not going to have an anti-incumbent election in November. We are going to have an anti-Bush election...

Republican incumbents are in trouble not because they are incumbents, but because they are Republicans....

This election isn’t really about agendas. Sure, Democrats have something called their “New Direction,” but most voters aren’t regarding November primarily as a choice between two visions or two ideologies. No, it’s about sending a message to the president and to Congress that they aren’t happy — specifically with the Iraq War, but more generally as well.

Interesting -- this election isn't about incumbency, it's about Republicans and Bush, and that bodes well for Dems. Or so says Rothenberg, anyway.


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