Poll: Big Terror Push Barely Budging Public Opinion
Okay, so Pew Research has just released a massive new poll taken from Sept. 6-10 -- that is, on five days during which the White House and the GOP were blaring their terrorism-and-Iraq message at the electorate as loudly and relentlessly as ever (though not including Sept. 11). And guess what? Pew found that this extensive and highly-orchestrated campaign has barely budged public opinion on key questions.
Here are some of the key findings:
-- Despite relentless efforts to make the midterm elections about terror, terror, and nothing but terror, only 15% cite terrorism as the most important problem facing the country. While that's the highest in three years, suggesting that the focus on terror is moving that number, the percentage who see Iraq as the most important problem has also spiked -- and at 26%, it well overshadows the number who see terror as the key problem.
-- While the GOP retains a significant advantage in which party is seen to have strong leaders, Bush's approval rating hasn't budged. It remains at 37% -- just where it was in August. What's more, the generic Democratic lead over Republicans in the Congressional vote has ever so slightly slightly increased since August. Last month, the Dems led 50%-41%. In this poll, it's 50%-39%.
-- Despite aggressive efforts to paint war critics as aiding America's foes, only 39% believe that criticism of the war "helps America's enemies."
-- While half of Americans describe the Iraq violence as mostly a civil war, as Dems portray it, only 37% see it as an anti-U.S. insurgency, a critical distinction in whether or not efforts to persuade people that Iraq is the "central front" in a broader "war on terror" will be successful.
-- More people think the Iraq war has hurt the war on terrorism (45%) than think it has helped (41%).
-- Only 39% of respondents think the U.S. is winning the "war on terror." Forty-one percent think America's losing it.
-- While the GOP retains a nine point advantage in who Americans trust to fight terrorism, the broader trends show that this spread is significantly lower than it was just nine months ago, when the spread was 16 points.
-- While there's been an uptick in the percentage of people who think things are going well in Iraq, optimism still languishes below where it was in June with the capture of al-Zarqawi. And Dems still hold a seven point lead in who the public trusts to handle Iraq -- 40%-33%. That's up from a three-point difference nine months ago.
-- Finally, despite an all-out GOP effort to persuade people of the importance of sticking it out in Iraq, public opinion on whether to stay in Iraq or pull out has if anything shifted insignificantly since August towards pulling out. It's basically remained unchanged.
There's plenty more to check out in this poll, so dig in.
UPDATE: I've added a few more numbers above to the initial post.















Sorry, but what IS the Democrat position on Iraq? How can the public trust the Dems to handle Iraq when there is no common, let alone coherent position? Does rather bring the relevance of such polls into question?
September 14, 2006 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Democratic position is very simple...it's time to CHANGE LEADERSHIP in the Iraq war, specifically, and the war on terror, generally.
These guys have had five years and they're not getting the job done. Our international stature is worse than ever; our military is stretched much too thin; we won't engage in direct talks with our biggest adversaries (Iran and No. Korea); we're feckless at home (just tour the Gulf Coast)and we're losing the war of ideas BIG TIME.
So...The rubber stamp Congress must be replaced by an effective check. Checks and balances...that's the American way!
September 14, 2006 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gary asks:
"Sorry, but what IS the Democrat position on Iraq? How can the public trust the Dems to handle Iraq when there is no common, let alone coherent position? Does rather bring the relevance of such polls into question?"
The Democratic position on Iraq is to listen to the experts in the first place, conservatives all, who advised not going INTO IRAQ, and now advise redeploying the troops OUT of Iraq. This is opposed to the Republican position on Iraq which was to listen to a bunch of neocon wonks who's only time in uniform was spent behind the counter of a fast food restaurant in their youth. "Stay the course" is not a plan. It's the absence of a plan. Moron.
September 14, 2006 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, excuse me--but when did the Democrats control what happens in IraqMire? It doesn't benefit them at all to say squat and subject themselves to Rovian dirty tricks. If the situation were reversed, the Repugs wouldn't say anything more than, "anything we have, has got to be better than the status quo". I would be pleased, if they said they'd end the "No Bid Contracts" to Halliburton. The way I'd frame it is, "A New Deal for Iraq, versus Bush's (and by implication, Halliburton's) Raw Deal". National Security includes a job and having the resources to put food in your family's belly. The Repugs have undermined that in Iraq and our troops are paying the price. The old saying goes "Idle hands are the Devil's Play Things". We would have endured a lot less casualties if the Administration had been interested in putting Iraq back to work, rather than looting the country for their corpoRATe Cronies.
Anything more than that,would give Karl Rove room to spin it, as ugly as he can make it.
September 14, 2006 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greatest strategic blunder in American history. Get used to hearing it. Republicans own it. Bush and the neocons owns it.
September 14, 2006 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent question.
The Republicans position amounts to incompetence combined with corruption, killing thousands of American soldiers, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi's and slowly destroying both the US army, the nation of Iraq, and American power in the region.
The Democrats should stand for something else.
Anything else.
September 14, 2006 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats need to open their coffers and unleash the biggest negative ad campaign ever. Capture Bush answering the question what does Iraq have to do with Tuesday 9/11/2001. His candid slip of the tongue answer. "Nothing". Repeat often
Thrown the first punch.
Negative ads work.
Show Powell disagreeing with Bush on prisoner treatment. Repeat.
The public may not want an immediate pull out of Iraq, but they do want some change in the number of opposition members in Congress as a general theme.
Dems need to punch hard. Tie every GOP member to GW and Iraq. Point out the disjointed response to Katrina and holes in homeland security.
Go for the juguar.
September 14, 2006 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
To gary: I think this line of reasoning is BS and a cop-out. Let's see: bush's entire justification for attacking Iraq was a lie--every word, every reason. Against the recommenations of dozens of senior military officers, intelligence officials, and foreign policy experts, bush attacked the wrong country for the wrong reasons. Then, to make matters worse, he attacked without a plan. It has been well-documented that not only was tommy franks not interested in developing a Phase IV plan, Rumsfeld actually forbade it. To continue the unrelenting pattern of incompetence, bush sent our military to war without adequate equipment and placed dilletantes and campaign workers in charge of the administration of Iraq. The net result: a quagmire which has resulted in a civil war, AND has significantly strengthened the influence of Iran. And now, bush sits back and cynically allows our troops, our young men and women, to sit there in a situation THEY CANNOT WIN, to be sitting targets, because it would be too politically embarassing to admit any mistakes.
After all this, your only response is "What is the Democrat's plan?" How badly do bush and his neocon posse have to fuck up before you hold them accountable? Does bush have to personally rape and disembowel a baby on live national TV before it penetrates your thick skull that maybe we need a different direction? Are you so afraid, that you will allow your country and your Constitution to be systematically dismantled so that your big daddy bush can pretend to protect you? How can the public trust YOU to have a vote, when your critical thinking skills are that diminished?
Quite frankly, you could vote for a retarded gerbil using a Magic 8-Ball, and you would get a better performance as a president than what we have had for the past 5 years. But since you asked: you can trust Democrats to combine strength AND wisdom, instead of blind ideology. You can trust Democrats to allow the military experts to plan military strategy instead of ideological hacks like cheney and feith. You can trust Democrats to focus on TERRORISTS, not to use a "global war on terrorism" as an excuse to implement a neocon wet dream of a new American empire. You can trust Democrats to work with other nations who also have a stake in fighting terrorists, instead of alienating our allies and leading other nations to work against us, solely because they mistrust our intentions. There is an old saying, "If your only tool is a hammer, you see every problem as a nail." You can trust Democrats to use investigation and intelligence, as they did in Britain, to disrupt terrorist plots and capture suspects, rather than use only the blunt tool of traditional military force, a tactic has proven to be a failure throughout human history and that has proven to be effective only in creating more terrorists.
That's why you can trust Democrats.
September 14, 2006 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fred Barnes says that Bush told him that "Bin Laden's capture is not a priority in the WoT"...
Very interesting...
So is Wubya lying now--or was he lying during his speech on 9/11?
September 15, 2006 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Neither. Bush doesn't lie, remember? :\
September 15, 2006 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yes--that's right-(it must've slipped my mind)-and he doesn't allow the use of torture, either--only the evil-doers use torture--he only allows the use of "alternative methods of interrogation".
He's a fine man & an outstanding leader.
{{{heavy sarcasm}}}
It's good to see that the Senate panel won't allow the proposed "clarifications" he wants to make to the Geneva Convention...although I am a little suspicious of the Republicans on the panel & how much their dissent has to do with the upcoming midterm elections.
And I also wonder if he even realizes that saying "Osama's capture is not a priority" might not have been the wisest comment he could've made...
September 15, 2006 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is Billmon on the "Bush campaign speechifying":
The purpose of the Bush series of speeches was to shore up his base, make sure they come out to vote. To date it seems to have done that.
September 15, 2006 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
"a bunch of neocon wonks who's only time in uniform was spent behind the counter of a fast food restaurant in their youth."
I don't think these cretins even had the McD's experience, if they did they wouldn't be yapping about how the economy is booming and everyone is making buckets of cash.
These dopes probably weren't even smart enough to get a McJob, most had to depend on Mommy/Daddy's friends to find employment. Maybe they got to wear Boy Scout uniforms when they were kids?
September 15, 2006 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
What an extraordinary amount of bile posted in response to a genuine question about what the Democrats' position on Iraq is.
I was not defending the Republican position - I was simply asking what - if any - the Democrats official stance is, partly because I don't know (and still don't, after trudging through the abuse spewed out for having the temerity to ask); second because there are a vast range of Democrat positions on Iraq; and third because I'll bet all the money in my pocket against all the money in yours that the US public at large doesn't have the faintest idea what the Democrats' position is.
Hence, it remains my contention that a poll that shows huge support for a position the vast majority have no idea about is suspect. I suspect that the responses to that question had far more to do with "any position that isn't the Republicans is one I support", rather than a considered positive endorsement of an - at best opaque - position of the Democrats.
Now, can we have a sensible discussion or are the loony left contributors here incapable of doing anything other than living up to that well-earned title?
September 15, 2006 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's try some specifics to help clarify the Democrats position shall we?
1. Is their position "troops out"? Can you cite leadership sources that have stated that?
2. What timeframe has been provided by the Dem leadership? It's quite important, because simply saying "troops out" is meaningless - I suspect Bush could be persuaded to state he wants troops out at some point; the critical question is when; or more credibly, what conditions need to be in place before withdrawal...
3. Is the Dems' position a full withdrawal, or a phased one?
4. Let's avoid the "Bush lied" debate please - whether he did or not, that isn't a meaningful discussion now because we're there.
Look, my bottom line is that this is a critical issue. While it's politically understandable for the Democrats to concentrate on making the case against the President, I don't think it's unreasonable for there to be a clear position on what the Dems would do instead, from now on, not what you'd have liked them to do in 2003. That's all.
September 15, 2006 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gary -- there's something very odd about making a huge and deliberate mess, denying hotly that it's a mess, and then blaming others for not telling you how to clean it up. Especially when you have control of the means of to clean it up and they don't. If you haven't noticed the Dems have a position on Iraq, you might want to switch newspapers. Or just wait until November when they have the means to do something about it...
A better question might be: how can the public trust the Bush administration to not drag us into another even worse mess -- given their track record and given that they have two years left to screw up? Come to think of it, can you name a single entire year of the Bush administration which has been without one or another costly FUBAR?
September 16, 2006 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are the information sources for the US public at large? The Republicans in my deep red area (Bush's neighborhood) seem to know the Democrats "want to get us the hell out of there"! Perhaps the people you've talked with depend on, say, Fox?
(Incidentally, a book by leading Dems will be out next month suggesting that the withdrawal should " begin on or before December 31, 2006, with the promise to make every effort to complete it by June 30, 2007." I'll have more detailed stuff from them at my website sometime in the next day or so...)
And that's the news from this loony lefty...
September 16, 2006 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink