In the hotly contested race for the House seat in Pennsylvania’s 6^th district, a recent poll shows Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach maintaining a slight edge over his Democratic challenger Lois Murphy. However, according to G. Terry Madonna, who conducted the poll, the numbers show a distinct trend favoring change, as well as overall dissatisfaction with George W. Bush.

G. Terry Madonna, director of Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Politics & Public Affairs, which conducted the poll, said the gap tightened when they looked at not just registered, but likely voters, shrinking to 44 percent for Gerlach and 41 percent for Murphy.

"This is a very tight race," Madonna said. "It's largely going to be determined by which party turns its voters out."

The 6th District, which includes parts of Berks, Chester, Montgomery and Lehigh counties, is one of several close races in the Philadelphia suburbs considered crucial to the Democrats' hopes of regaining the House.

Murphy ran against Gerlach in 2004 and came within 2 percentage points of winning. Madonna said the race should be just as close this time around.

"This election is going to go down to the wire," he said.

Although Gerlach's ahead, 43 percent of voters said it was time for a change, compared to 37 percent who said he deserved re-election. And a majority of voters said Pennsylvania is headed in the wrong direction.

"When you have an incumbent who's under 50 percent, that's one of the reasons this is a close race," said Madonna.

Madonna also noted that "[President] Bush is not helping Gerlach." He said that "65 percent of people in the district think Bush is doing a fair or poor job."

Gerlach has been supportive of the Bush administration on issues such as the war in Iraq and appeared at a fundraiser with Bush in the spring. But recently he has tried to distance himself with ads critical of the president.

Registered voters had mixed feelings on Gerlach - a moderate conservative who supports gun rights and opposes abortion rights - with 33 percent giving him favorable ratings and 26 percent unfavorable, while 41 percent were undecided or didn't know him.

The majority of respondents - 57 percent - didn't know or hadn't decided about Murphy, a liberal who favors abortion rights and expanding health-care coverage. Another 21 percent viewed her favorably and 22 percent unfavorably.

The war in Iraq was the biggest issue for voters, followed by the campaign against terrorism.

Gerlach voted against determining an exit date for Iraq. Murphy has said she would support a plan to bring troops home.