Midterm Roundup
VA-SEN: What Else Did You Expect as a Lead Item?
It’s weird to think that only a month or two ago Joe Lieberman was the overriding story of this election season. Today? It’s Day 5 of Fiasco 3 of George Allen for Senate in ’06. Without further dalliance…
Salon’s Michael Scherer, who penned the original Sunday article that kicked off the latest pandemonium, has an update on the corroboration of the former college roommate of the late Billy Lanahan, the person who accompanied Allen on a hunting trip that allegedly concluded with a stop at a black family’s home to drop off a deer’s head, speedy delivery style. Greg Sargent notes that WaPo has picked up on the roommate’s corroboration as well.
Meanwhile Election Central has been busy trying to track down police records of the deer head incident, if it did indeed occur. No luck yet, but it’s not for a lack of trying (and to answer one reader’s question – yes, The Godfather had come out by then).
WaPo’s Marc Fisher, staring at “a stack of papers representing a whole bunch of people's memories of words George Allen supposedly once said,” wonders to himself, “How should a conscientious voter decide what's true?”
Among other things, Fisher takes a look at Doug Thompson’s stories, which the Midterm Roundup has wondered about itself for the past couple days: “Former Republican campaign consultant Doug Thompson says he heard Allen use the term at a cocktail party in 1984 and again at a fundraiser in 1991. But Thompson runs a Web site with a tabloid sensibility and a checkered record for accuracy.”
In the end Fisher concludes, “When conflicting accounts prohibit a definitive finding, the historian -- and the voter -- must go with what adds up, what feels right.”
The n-word story appears to have reached mainstream saturation as USA Today reports, Controversy clouds Allen's re-election bid, though the piece is less an investigation of recent allegations than just a general profile of the entire campaign. The article notes that Virginia conservatives remain solidly behind Allen. Looks like George will be relying heavily on people like Delrose Winter come November: “‘We vote the party, not the person,’ said Delrose Winter, 48, co-owner of a materials analysis lab. ‘I don't care what he did as long as it wasn't criminal. He seems very moral and sensible.’”
A new poll from SurveyUSA has Allen leading Webb by 5 points, but the complete interactive crosstabs show just how unstable this race is: “Day-to-day data shows that the race is volatile. On Sunday 9/24, after Allen had been accused of using racial slurs in college, he led by 7 in SurveyUSA Sunday-only data. On Monday 9/25, after Allen strongly denied the accusations, he led by 11 in SurveyUSA Monday-only data. On Tuesday 9/26, after more people corroborated the accusations, Allen trailed Webb by 3 points, in Tuesday-only data. The 5-point Allen advantage shown here, when the 3 days of data are combined and averaged, cannot be considered stable.” (Tip o’ the hat to Sixers)
For anyone who really likes George Allen and feels sad about all these nasty things being said about him, there’s always Redstate to turn to for comfort.
Slate has a new feature: the George Allen Insult Generator.
So, is anyone sick of this deafening racial epithet furor yet? Lament not – there’re still plenty of other issues that define this race, most of them slightly less depressing than latent bigotry. The war in Iraq, Webb’s attitude toward women, accusations and countercharges galore! WaPo reports with The Forecast: 6 More Weeks Of Mud for Va.
NJ-SEN: Kean Jr.’s Latest Ad Stretches Truth / Lies Blatantly
Remember yesterday when the Midterm Roundup noted a new ad out from Tom Kean, Jr. (R) in which a knee-shaking voice repeats the phrase “Bob Menendez, under federal criminal investigation” 4 times? The Roundup gave Kean Jr. the benefit of the doubt and figured he was referring to the case involving Menendez’s rental property. But, heh, funny story about that – according to the Philadelphia Inquirer, “To date, there have been no reports that Menendez is the target of a probe, or that personal bank or other financial records have been subpoenaed.”
This month, the U.S. attorney did subpoena records from the North Hudson Community Action Program, which leased a building in Union City, N.J., from Menendez for 12 years while he was a U.S. Representative. But on Tuesday Menendez stated, "The bottom line is I'm not under federal investigation. Period."
MT-SEN: Tester Sues Burns Over Feeble Attempt to Stack Debate Audience
The Helena Independent Record reports: “Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jon Tester’s campaign filed a complaint Tuesday charging that a corporate sponsor with close ties to Republican Sen. Conrad Burns received premium reserved seats at a Butte debate in violation of federal election law.”
The Montana Standard, Resodyn Corp., and Rhodia Chemical Co sponsored the debate. Resodyn, which according to the Tester complaint has a history of “mutual cooperation” with Burns, received 50 reserved seats in the middle of the center section of the theater and filled them specifically with Burns supporters. Next time, Burns may want to give Resodyn more seats – “attendance was estimated at 1,000 people, with the vast majority appearing to be Tester supporters.”
It’s been a while since the Roundup has brought you an update on the California governor’s race, mostly because this thing hasn’t turned out to be much of a race. The latest polls confirm as much. SacBee reports, “Heading into the final six weeks of the campaign, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger extended his lead over Democratic challenger Phil Angelides in two new public polls, showcasing the state treasurer's failure to gain traction against the incumbent Republican this summer.” Actually there are 3 new polls to take from here. SacBee notes a Field Poll (pdf) that has Schwarzenegger leading Angelides 44%-34% and a Public Policy Institute of California poll (also pdf) that has Schwarzenegger up 48%-31%. SurveyUSA also released a poll Wednesday that has Schwarzenegger leading 52%-38%.
The SacBee’s Dan Walters explains how Schwarzenegger’s signing of California’s landmark anti-global warming legislation will likely only help him build his lead.
Back on Tuesday Angelides made a pledge to bring California's National Guard troops home from Iraq. But the LA Times’ George Skelton writes, Antiwar Stand May Be Popular, but It's Unlikely to Win Angelides the Governorship.
TN-SEN: Thus Spake CQ-thustra: From “Leans Republican” to “No Clear Favorite”
With a great clap of thunder and a child’s cry off in the distance, CQ announces it has changed its Tennessee Senate race rating to “No Clear Favorite” from “Leans Republican.” CQ writes, “Candidates’ campaigns matter. And the consensus among state and national politics watchers is that [Representative Harold] Ford [, Jr. (D)], since the primary, has run a much more effective campaign than [former Chattanooga Mayor Bob] Corker [(R)], who has faced some dissent among staunch GOP conservatives and repeated allegations launched by Ford and other Democrats about his actions as mayor and his personal financial dealings.”
Meanwhile on Tuesday Ford called Corker a “wimp,” to which Corker responded by kicking Ford in the shin and failing to connect with a flailing open-palmed slap. Okay, actually that second part didn’t happen.
CT-SEN: A Comparative Exercise
Exhibit 1: “In his long-awaited speech on Iraq, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman borrowed liberally from Senate colleagues and retired military officers Monday, saying that the U.S. should ‘get tough’ with an Iraqi political leadership unable to function without American troops.” (Hartford Courant, Sep. 26)
Exhibit 2: “A day after saying in a major campaign speech that ‘we must get tougher with the Iraqi political leadership,’ Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman met Tuesday with Iraq's president and had a pleasant conversation that ended with the two men agreeing progress is being made.” (Hartford Courant, Sep. 27)
That’s the kind of “toughness” Terrible Terry Tate would body slam to the ground… if he were a Capital Hill linebacker instead of an office linebacker. But hey, you can’t really blame Joe. Let’s be honest – does this face say “tough” to you?
In other news from the Connecticut Senate race…
Roll Call reports on a new group being formed backing Joe Lieberman: “A group of more than 50 former Senators, House Members and Clinton administration officials will proudly announce the creation of ‘Dems for Joe’ today.” (sub. req.)
The AP reports that Ned Lamont is dropping mad G’s of his own money on the race. He just wrote himself a check for $750,000 to be spent on his campaign. Psh, whatever, the Midterm Roundup recently wrote a check for $75 for a fantasy football league entry fee.
AP also gives us an update on Alan Schlesinger’s (R) struggle for respect. Despite a categorical lack of support from the national GOP, Schlesinger says he's within “striking distance” of winning. In related news, Alan Schlesinger recently purchased an LGM-30G Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile for 7 million dollars.
MD-SEN: Cardin Pulls Some Big Names to Help Win Over Black Vote
Yep, race is still an issue in the open seat Senate race to succeed the retiring Paul Sarbanes (D) between Representative Ben Cardin (D) and Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R). On Wednesday Cardin held a campaign rally at the University of Maryland attended by his erstwhile primary opponent Kweisi Mfume and most notably Senator Barack Obama (D-IL). WaPo reports both on Mfume’s appearance – an endorsement of Cardin but with a caveat about the paucity of diversity at the top of the Democratic ticket, and Obama’s appearance – a necessary infusion of A-list charisma. The Hill has more with Puppies vs. issues in Maryland Senate race.
CO-07: Hm, Let’s Give this a Try…
The Colorado Spring Gazette reports, “In a shocking new tack, Republican congressional candidate Rick O’Donnell said Tuesday that the Bush administration has bungled the war in Iraq and the United States should change course there.”
The Plank’s Noam Scheiber has an apposite reaction to this tactic: “If you're a GOP congressional candidate, and Iraq is a big deal in your race, then it seems like you've got to argue that staying the course is better than not staying the course. To argue anything else is to concede that your election is somewhere between pointless and counter-productive.”
This new ad against Senator Mike DeWine (R) isn’t playing on TV, but it’s playing on YouTube, which is pretty much better than TV these days anyway. Mainstream political ads definitely need to do a better job of incorporating music like this one. You’re telling the Midterm Roundup that you wouldn’t be more affected by a Tom Kean, Jr. corruption ad against Bob Menendez if it had the song Mo’ Money, Mo’ Problems playing in the background?
Okay, so this ad probably won’t change much in DeWine’s tight Senate race against Representative Sherrod Brown (D), but something that possibly will have an affect on DeWine’s chances in November? The gubernatorial race. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) is currently getting his clocks cleaned in the open gubernatorial race by Representative Ted Strickland (D). The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports, “Observers, both partisan and not, say that if Blackwell's double-digit deficit in the polls turns into a thrashing on Election Day, it may hurt Republican incumbent Mike DeWine in his bid to fend off Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown.”
OH-06: GOP Gives Up on Once Competitive Seat
After Representative Ted Strickland (D) announced he would step down from his 6th district seat to run for governor, Republican eyes turned heavily toward the district as a prime opportunity for a rare pickup in 2006. However in the months since state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) won the May Democratic primary, Ohio’s 6th has faded from the GOP’s grasp. Chris Cillizza and Jim VandeHei report from their Ohio River Ramble: “Four months ago, state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) was teetering on the edge of defeat in his campaign for Ohio's open 6th District. Today he is strolling toward Nov. 7, when, if current trends continue, he will be elected to Congress.”
PA-SEN: Softer Voices Carry Santorum
A week ago the Midterm Roundup noted a piece by NRO’s Kathryn Jean Lopez entitled Momma’s Boy, all about a new ad campaign kicked off by the 527 group Softer Voices on behalf of Senator Rick Santorum (R). The issue-advocacy group formed by a group of conservative women is backing Santorum on the basis of his welfare reform efforts and his championing of the single mother cause.
Now The Fix has picked up on the group’s activities, after catching the ad in a hotel room during the Ohio River Ramble. As The Fix remarks, “We continue to believe that the activities of groups like these is one of the most important -- and untold -- stories of the 2006 election. These groups can pop up in an individual race, secure several hundreds thousands dollars in funding, and use the money run a slew of ads.” While citing the KJL piece, The Fix notes that the group’s new ads “have been largely missed to date by the more mainstream media.” That might be just the way they want it. After all, what was it that ’Til Tuesday said? “Hush hush, keep it down now, voices carry…”
KY-03: Northup Feeling Spooked?
5-term incumbent Representative Anne Northup (R) is currently favored to win reelection against former newspaper publisher John Yarmuth (D). But the district leans slightly Democratic and has been a big target for Dems ever since Northup took the seat in 1996. This past weekend, in a possible sign of her growing antsiness, Northup unleashed a barrage of attacks against Yarmuth concerning some controversial newspaper columns he penned in the past.
Hotline notes, “Yarmuth is an oppo-researchers' dream candidate, with his treasure trove of controversial columns,” which, according to Northup, include ideas about abolishing Social Security, doubling the payroll tax, increasing taxes on SUVs and pickup trucks, taking "under God" out of the Pledge of Allegiance, lowering the drinking age, and legalizing marijuana. Northup released a TV ad, “Yarmuth’s Record,” to highlight his 15 years of “extreme positions” and “goofy ideas."
But Yarmuth's campaign manager, Jason Burke, said his candidate’s positions are not as Northup claims. And Roll Call reports in its “At the Races” section that Democrats say the attacks were motivated by a month-old internal poll that shows the race tied. Said pollster Alan Secrest, “Anne Northup’s mythmaking machine is getting creakier and her accusations wilder and more desperate. This one’s going to the wire.”
On Tuesday Yarmuth released a retaliation ad that says Northup’s claims about his positions are as far-fetched as saying he “plays golf with Saddam Hussein” or “snatches toys from children.”
The Louisville Courier-Journal has a good recap of the recent back-and-forth, which includes all kinds of accusing and denying from both sides. As for the Midterm Roundup’s take on all this? Who knows who’s telling the truth here. One thing is certain: this race has the best pair of last names of any in the country. Northup. Yarmuth. Just delicious.
IYI (If You’re Interested)
NATIONWIDE: GOP Attack Calls May Violate Fed Rules (TPMmuckraker’s Justin Rood has an update on the latest shenanigans of that lovable scamp Bob Perry and his group of election year scallywags, the Economic Freedom Fund)
NATIONWIDE: Party Loyalty Often Sacrificed by At-risk House Incumbents (CQ)
NATIONWIDE: Self-funders carry party hopes (The Hill)
NATIONWIDE: EMILY’s List Claims House Endorsees Are Making Gains (CQ)
NATIONWIDE: New Hope for Democrats in Bid for Senate (NYT), and as for the House: Big Openings for Democrats (Roll Call, sub. req.)
NATIONWIDE: Dispute on Intelligence Report Disrupts Republicans’ Game Plan (NYT) Meanwhile many candidates have seized on the NIE issue to attack their rivals. The NYT’s Empire Zone blog reports that Democratic nominee Ned Lamont has rolled the report up into a tube and is hitting Joe Lieberman over the head with it after Lieberman hardly batted an eye at the report earlier this week: “Talking to reporters this evening in East Hartford, Mr. Lamont suggested that Joe Lieberman must have been looking at a different National Intelligence Estimate.” Though the Hartford Courant reports that both candidates have been able to appropriate the report for their own purposes: “Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman and Ned Lamont each claimed Wednesday that a newly declassified intelligence report supported their opposing views on the war in Iraq.”
The DCCC has a summary of the Democratic reactions to the NIE, including a rundown of all the Democratic challengers using the report to attack their opponents.
Election Central reports that in Connecticut’s 5th district, challenger Chris Murphy has already released an ad attacking Representative Nancy Johnson (R) using the NIE.
The Wall Street Journal’s Washington Wire blog reports that WSJ correspondent Jackie Calmes was at a news conference Wednesday “at which House and Senate Democrats’ campaign committee chairmen New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel argued for pressing Republican candidates to say whether they agree with Mr. Bush’s dismissal of the report.”
And Roll Call reports in its “At the Races” section: “Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said another candidate has produced ads related to the NIE and several others are in the works, signaling Democrats expect to use the leaked intelligence briefing to tear down Republicans’ national security credentials before the midterm elections.”
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