PRIMARIES – ALL YOU CAN EAT, ROUND 2!

Today is the day folks. Primary Day in Arizona, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Wisconsin. The Roundup previewed half this bunch (AZ, DE, MD, and NH) yesterday morning in part 1 of its Primary Blowout Buffet 2006. Today, second helpings – MN, NY, RI, VT, and WI. Pass the mint jelly!

MINNESOTA

Note that the Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party is Minnesota’s affiliate of the Democratic Party of the United States. For all intents and purposes then, DFL = D.

MN-GOV, -SEN

While primaries are occurring for both major parties in the gubernatorial and Senate races, there isn’t a real contest in the bunch. Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) faces a negligible challenge to his renomination from restaurant owner Sue Jeffers. Pawlenty’s main Democratic challenger, state Attorney General Mike Hatch, faces the toughest primary challenge of this group from state Senator Becky Lourey, but Hatch is still the favorite.

Meanwhile Representative Mark Kennedy (R) and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D), the two clear frontrunners in the open seat race to succeed retiring Senator Mark Dayton (D), both face no-name opponents in their respective primaries.

MN-04

Republican:

Representative Betty McCollum (D) is safe for reelection. The Republican race to face her in November pits hydrologist and civil engineer Obgazghi “Obi” Sium against dentist Jack Shepard, who, just by the by, is a fugitive felon hiding out in Italy. Yes, that’s correct. There is a fugitive hiding in Italy running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Minnesota. Of course, Dr. Shepard was lost spotted on a mysterious unidentified island on ABC’s hit show “Lost.” Shepard pleaded guilty to two felonies in Minnesota around 1980 – sexual assault and drug possession. He is currently wanted in Hennepin County on a separate arson charge and would face arrest were he ever to return to Minnesota’s 4^th district, but the state Supreme Court has ruled that his name cannot be kept off the ballot. Yeah Democracy!

MN-05

Democratic:

Representative Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. The Democratic primary will decide his successor, as the district is overwhelmingly Democratic, and as such it has attracted quite a field: 7 candidates will compete, with the most prominent being state Representative Keith Ellison, Sabo’s Chief of Staff Mike Erlandson, Minneapolis City Councilman Paul Ostrow, and former state Senator Ember Reichgott Junge. While Erlandson has Sabo’s support, Ellison is the DFL-endorsed candidate. Ellison is a Muslim and would be the first to serve in congress, if elected. The GOP is not expected to wage a serious campaign here, with management consultant Alan Fine the only Republican in the race.

NEW YORK

One thing to keep in mind about New York is that the state permits “cross-endorsements,” meaning a candidate can appear on the ballot for more than one party, if endorsed. So then, a candidate who loses the nomination of one of the 2 major parties for a given office but has already been nominated for that same office by a different party will still appear somewhere on the general election ballot. Hence, there is a crazy proliferation of 3^rd parties in New York like Independence, Conservative, Liberal, and Working Families. Major party candidates fight over these smaller parties to win as many endorsements as possible and hence as many lines on the November ballot (the votes received on each different ballot line for a single candidate are aggregated). Gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer (D), for example, is running on the Democratic, Independence, and Working Families ballot lines. So say, for instance, Spitzer comes out this morning and announces to the country that he is a closet neo-nazi cannibal who enjoys Wayans Brothers movies and Tom Suozzi subsequently ekes out a narrow victory in the Democratic primary. Spitzer will still show up on the ballot in November. But if anything short of that happens and Suozzi loses the primary, he’s out of the general election since he hasn’t won any other party endorsements.

NY-GOV

Democratic:

Uhhh, yup. Looks like Spitzer’s probably gonna take this one. Enjoying massive leads in the polls basically since announcing his candidacy, Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) has been the presumptive successor to retiring Governor George Pataki (R) for so long that’s it kind of jarring to remember that he’s still technically “running.” Spitzer faces primary opposition from Foghorn Leghorn, Tyrone Shoelaces, and the Hamburglar.

Actually no, Spitzer does in fact have a non-fictional challenger in Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi. While he clearly has no chance on Tuesday, Suozzi seems to the Midterm Roundup like a pretty good guy; at the very least a good sport. In the face of overwhelming defeat Suozzi has become something of a lovable cartoon character himself, as the NY Daily News writes in Last laugh for Suozzi. The New York City media news blog Gawker.com interviewed Suozzi back in August and then cut a series of fake commercials using footage from the interview. Even with Gawker’s selective editing Suozzi comes off as a laid-back, light-hearted, totally reasonable guy. Best of luck, Tom.

Once through the primary, Spitzer will face equally feeble opposition from state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso (R), who is unopposed for his nomination.

NY-SEN

The only reason anyone is watching this race is Hilary Clinton’s obvious 2008 presidential aspirations. She faces no credible threat from either her primary contender or whichever Republican she faces in November, but her performance in this reelection campaign will no doubt have serious implications on Clinton’s road to the White House; or rather, this race in fact is part of that road.

Republican:

Former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer and former Reagan administration Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary K.T. McFarland square off in a fight of conservative vs. moderate. With a November defeat at the hands of Clinton inevitable, this contest is really more interesting as a study of where exactly the New York GOP stands. Spencer is a staunch conservative issues like abortion, immigration, and gun control. McFarland is a more moderate Republican. The race is a tossup. The outcome here will change nothing about November’s result.

Democratic:

How do you spell landslide? C-L-I-N-T-O-N. But this primary result still matters. With winning a foregone conclusion, Clinton wants to keep the vote for her opposition, liberal activist Jonathan Tasini, as small as possible to maintain her powerful image. Especially since Tasini is an anti-war leftist, and Clinton has heard the loudest criticism from her party over her repeated refusal to disown her vote in favor of the invasion of Iraq. The primary vote should help signal just how frustrated Democratic voters are with Clinton over Iraq.

NY-11

Democratic:

Representative Major Owens (D), an institution in this heavily Democratic Brooklyn-based district, is retiring after 12 terms. The race for this open seat has become arguably the hottest primary race in the state. 4 Democrats are slugging it out to succeed Owens, most notably his son; HMO administrator and former local school board official Chris Owens. But Owens faces plenty of strong opposition from state Senator Carl Andrews, New York City Councilwoman Yvette Clarke, and New York City Councilman David Yassky.

Yassky is the only white candidate running in this 80% minority district, and the race issue has played a prominent and often ugly roll in the race. Things began all the way back in June of 2005 when Representative Owens called Yassky a “colonizer,” and then ultimately came to a head this past Labor Day, when, during an appearance in Brooklyn with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Yassky had hurled in his direction by some seething member of the racially charged-up crowd… a donut. While the pastry missed Yassky, it “sent state banking superintendent Diana Taylor, the mayor’s girlfriend, scurrying.” Bloomberg, in an attempt to appear tough and protective of his lady, reportedly pounced on the donut and ferociously beat it into the ground with his bare knuckles. Projectile donuts aside, just take a gander at the picture to the far right in the just-linked-to article and you might gain some sense of the issues at play here. Yassky doesn’t exactly blend.

So then, does Yassky possibly have a shot here? He just might – he has been the most prolific fundraiser by far and the black vote is going to be largely split among the other 3 hopefuls. Though polls indicate that the race is a tossup between all 4 candidates. Anything could happen here.

Whoever takes the Democratic nomination will have no trouble defeating physician Steve Finger “In Your Ear, Up Your Nose, and Down Your Throat” (R) in November (Midterm Roundup’s nicknaming, not candidate’s).

NY-19

Democratic:

Lawyer and former Republican Judy Aydelott was endorsed early on by both the DCCC and EMILY’s List to challenge Representative Sue Kelly (R) in this Republican-leaning but potentially competitive district. Her main competitor is former Ulster County legislator and singer/songwriter John Hall, which name, much to the Midterm Roundup’s disappointment, is not in fact some kind of mutant singer/songwriter portmanteau of John Oates and Daryl Hall of Hall & Oates… though the two Halls did collaborate on some songs. Nevertheless, Hall (John) has come on strong of late and now appears to have an excellent chance for the nomination. How was Hall able to stage this dramatic surge without his party’s support? Perhaps because he’s… Still the One… er, or… um… Dance with Me? Other candidates include political fundraising consultant Darren Rigger and high school principal Ben Shuldiner. Representative Kelly is unopposed for reelection and will undoubtedly be difficult to unseat in November.

RHODE ISLAND

RI-SEN

Oh buddy, this is the big one. Lieberman/Lamont with consequences. Moderate Senator Lincoln Chafee vs. conservative challenger Steve Laffey. Chafee wins, and he has a shot to hold onto his seat. Laffey wins and Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse almost assuredly claims the seat for Democrats. BIG!

Republican:

Even though it’s gotten a fraction of the attention the Democratic primary in Connecticut has, by now you’ve probably heard about the battle being fought between Senator Lincoln Chafee and the NRSC and Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey and the Club for Growth. Why is the NRSC openly and frantically attacking a pro-war, conservative member of its own party? Because it knows full well that no matter how impressive he may perform among Republicans, Laffey has not a shot in hell to win in November in the super-blue Rhode Island. In a slice of election year irony that’s too sweet not to enjoy, the NRSC is airing TV ads that, in defense of the anti-war Chafee, attack the pro-war, illegal-immigration-hardliner Laffey as being soft on border security. Just how desperate is the GOP to save Chafee’s hide? The NRSC has announced that if Laffey wins the primary the party will give up on defending the seat altogether.

Here’s more on the biggest primary of the day:

RI Senator Targeted in Tuesday Primary (AP)

Rhode Island’s Republicans Deeply Split Ahead of Senate Primary (CQ)

To Hold Senate, G.O.P. Bolsters Its Most Liberal (NYT)

GOP Forced to Fight for Rebel Chafee (WaPo)

GOP leaders throw weight behind Chafee (Financial Times)

Republican "Club" takes aim at moderate Chafee (Reuters)

Laffey decries party, Beltway in his ‘outsider’ campaign (The Hill)

Chafee's challenger going door to door (Wash Times)

R.I. Senate primary has national impact (AP)

Nation watches R.I. Senate race (ProJo)

M. Charles Bakst: Chafee, Laffey: One for the books (ProJo)

Democratic:

All quiet on the Democratic front as former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse is the overriding favorite to take the Democratic nomination. His opponents are USMC veteran and business appraiser Carl Sheeler and electrical engineer Chris Young. Whitehouse is a strong candidate whose chances in November of course ride heavily on whether he’s facing Chafee or Laffey.

RI-02

Democratic:

3-term Representative Jim Langevin (D) is not realistically vulnerable but he has drawn a notable primary challenge from college professor Jennifer Lawless because of his pro-life stance on abortion. He’ll take care of Lawless easily enough, and no Republican is even running in the general election.

VERMONT

VT-SEN

Senator Jim Jeffords (I), the lone independent in the Senate, is out; Bernie Sanders (I) is most likely in. Sanders, the popular socialist Representative, has the wide appeal to carry him to the Senate.

Republican:

Businessman Richard Tarrant is the frontrunner over retired Air Force Colonel Greg Parke for the chance to face Sanders in a tremendously uphill battle in November. Parke faced Sanders in 2004 for his U.S. House seat and won only 24% of the vote. But wait - then there’s artist, musician, and perpetual candidate Cris Ericson, who’s gunning for the Republican nomination. But if she loses she will also be on the ballot for the Marijuana Party, since like New York Vermont permits cross-endorsement (though the practice is not as widespread as it is in New York). Right, so Cris Ericson, again, running as a Republican/Marijuana. More power to her.

Democratic:

He doesn’t even have a D after his name, but this race is all about 8-term Representative Bernie Sanders (I). Since he caucuses with Democrats and is almost assured of winning, the state Democratic Party has actually shunned Democratic candidates in order to embrace and ensure Sanders’ victory. Sanders has the endorsements of Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the chairman of the DSCC, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), and DNC chairman and former Vermont governor Howard Dean (D). Plus Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) has campaigned for Sanders in Vermont. Sad sack actual Democrats include former Northfield Village Trustee Larry Drown (D), marketing consultant Craig Hill, civil engineer Peter Moss, and former U.S. postal worker Louis Thabault.

VT-AT-LARGE

Republican:

With Representative Bernie Sanders (I) leaving to go snag himself a Senate seat, state Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welch (D) is the lone Democrat running to take Sanders’ place in the House. But not if 1^st-time candidate Martha Rainville (R) has anything to say about it. Rainville, the state Adjutant General and retired USAF Major General, is the favorite to take the GOP nomination over state Senator Mark Shepard. Rainville is highly touted and moderate, a must for any Republican running in a state as blue as Vermont. Despite Welch’s environmental advantage, the general election could be highly competitive, especially if Rainville has a strong showing today against Shepard.

WISCONSIN

WI-SEN

Democratic:

Popular Senator Herb Kohl (D) faces only a nominal opponent in activist Ben Masel. He’ll cruise past him and then past attorney Robert Gerald Lorge (R) in November to win his 4^th term.

WI-08

Representative Mark Green (R) is out the door to run for governor, leaving an open seat behind to be clawed over by a formidable group of both Democrats and Republicans. The district leans Republican, but this is no question the most competitive race in the state, with both the DCCC and NRCC putting up money to run ads.

Republican:

State Assembly Speaker John Gard is the frontrunner here against state Assemblywoman Terri McCormick. Gard has the backing of Representative Green and the rest of the state GOP. If he wins he will no doubt be a formidable opponent in November, especially considering Green took 70% of the vote in 2004, and Bush nearly 55% against Kerry.

Democratic:

We’ve got a 3-way battle here between physician Steve Kagen, former Brown County Executive and De Pere Mayor Nancy Nusbaum, and business consultant Jamie Wall. Kagen is the biggest spender, having committed $1.5 million in personal funds, but Nusbaum and Wall are equally impressive fundraisers, backed by EMILY’s List and major union groups, respectively. In the end, any of the 3 could feasibly pull out the nomination, and any could pose a serious challenge to Gard in November.

Well, the Midterm Roundup hopes that was previewy enough to satisfy you crazed, depraved junkies. Tomorrow morning – PRIMARY RESULTS!