CT-SEN: New Poll: Lieberman-Lamont Race A Dead Heat
Joe Lieberman's lead over Ned Lamont has dwindled to two points, a new Rasmussen poll released today has found. It shows Lieberman ahead of Lamont 45%-43%. Previous polls have shown larger spreads, with a SurveyUSA poll on Sept. 12 showing Lieberman up 51%-38%, and a Wall Street Journal/Zogby one on Sept. 11 showing Lieberman ahead 46%-42%. More Rasmussen numbers after the jump.
From Rasmussen:
Around a third of GOP voters, conservatives, unaffiliated voters and moderates view Lieberman "very favorably." Lamont gets a "very favorable" response from 38% of Democrats, and 36% of liberals, but isn't as strongly liked by other voters.The economy is the top issue for a plurality of 25% of likely voters; in August 37% ranked it number one. Twenty-four percent (24%) say Iraq is their top issue, 21% say national security. The proportion who say Iraq is their top issue is highest among liberals (40%) and Democrats (33%)...
Only on national security do voters divide their trust somewhat evenly between the parties, with 43% trusting the GOP more, 44% trusting the Democrats more.
Polling for this race has been all over the place. I really don't know what to make of most numbers that I see.
I have enjoyed Ned Lamont's last two TV spots, the Red Sox/Yankees buddies and the "Turncoat". I think both were light and funny and got the message across without being preachy. Maybe they're having an effect.
America's Least Wanted
September 19, 2006 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe Lamont can plagiarize Steele's wonderful spot that says Steele is infamously accused of hating puppies.
Unleash Underdog again.
Lamont can win this thing going away.
Steele might too BTW with that incredible ad.
Best, Terry
September 19, 2006 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those previous polls were probably outliers. One of the higher skewed Lieberman polls was a leaked internal poll, so that should have been taken with a grain of salt.
Basically, Joe's "indepublicrat" launch hasn't gain traction. He will be spending lobbyist and billionaire dollars by the millions just to hold onto the sub-50 that he's got.
Lamont was retooling his entire campaign in August, staffing up, pulling in new hires (some guy named Sirota, whatever), and evidently putting together a fairly aggressive media package. With two radio ads and three tv ads up and running, Ned has launched a broadside.
My most sincere hope is that Ned runs ads against Lieberman on his missing votes, particularly missing votes on Iraq.
Bigger questions remain: will Republicans actually pull the lever (if they can find it) for (CTFL) Joe? Or will they stick to the top line and pull Schlesinger up a few points? And will Republicans in Connecticut actually turn out? The race for governor isn't close (should be but currently isn't) and the most Republicans can say they're doing is casting a vote for the status quo.
The competitive Congressional races should help GOP turnout but I suspect they won't. Shays seems to be in a meltdown. Nancy Johnson is threatening children in her ads. Rob Simmons just flip-flopped in his debate against Courtney and evidently is as visible as Joe on the ground.
It's time to get optimistic on Connecticut. Change is coming like a blue freight train.
September 19, 2006 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a key race since we really don't know where Joltin' Joe will line up come next January. He says he'll remain a Democrat and will caucus with them, but if it's nominally 49R-51D in the final tally (entirely possible at this time) don't you think 1600 Penn. Ave. will crank up the incentives to flip Joe like a pancake? I do. And I think they'll succeed. This is a sleeper issue that could explode unless Lamont emerges victorious.
September 19, 2006 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Only on national security do voters divide their trust somewhat evenly between the parties, with 43% trusting the GOP more, 44% trusting the Democrats more."
This is the pair of numbers I'm most fascinated by. In any other race around the country, I would call this a truly dire situation for Republicans, especially those like my state's Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) who push their national security credentials. An even split on national security between the "Defeat-o-crats" and the GOP is probably Ken Mehlman's worst Halloween nightmare.
However, I don't think it means a lot in Connecticut. Lieberman is, on national security, basically a Republican with a surprising number of Democratic voters in his base; so I suspect that this 43/44 split is skewed against the GOP. If the gap widens, however, it'll be a real problem for the Republicans in November.
September 19, 2006 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its not actually a "dead heat".
Please refer to the National Council on Public Polls FAQ for more information regarding this topic.
September 20, 2006 5:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lieberman blogs back!
September 20, 2006 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink