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VA-SEN: Poll: Allen's Lead Over Webb Shrinks To Three Points
GOP incumbent Senator George Allen's "Macaca" remarks have turned the contest with Dem challenger James Webb into a real race. An exclusive Survey USA poll done for WUSA-TV shows that Allen's once-double-digit lead over Webb has shriveled to three points -- 48% to 45%. From the WUSA analysis: "Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters, he has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing." Don't mess with Macaca!
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What a shame if Allen were to lose:) We need all the morons in the Senate we can get - not!
Tom
August 21, 2006 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The macaca effect plays both ways. The race card will shore up the racists while losing those apalled by racism. This has worked well for the Repubs for many an election season and Rove has used it in every election from his Texas days.
I think the tightening of the Allen-Webb race is because as people start to focus on the race they see a better candidate in Webb.
But this race is not over. As we saw in the Lamont-Loserman race when the hyper-negative attacks on Webb get unleashed with Allen's superior cash chest the numbers will change again. This will be a close race and I hope Webb prevails.
August 21, 2006 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just as gay marriage is a big losing issue among younger voters, racial slurs are too... maybe Macaca wouldn't have hurt Allen twenty years ago but now it's a different story.
It's also worth bearing in mind that Allen's big cash chest was supposed to be intended for his presidential run once he cakewalked through his 2006 race. Now that his re-election campaign isn't going so well Allen is having to spend a lot of bucks in Virginia that he was hoping to use in New Hampshire and Iowa (see this article from Allen's good ol' days). And I would bet that the people who bankrolled him with their eye on 2008 aren't going to be particularly interested in pulling out their checkbooks again, even if Allen wins, now that he's macaca'd himself.
August 21, 2006 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
ah, i'm not so sure it will help him much with the racists. were they otherwise going to vote for the democrat? it's true that rove and the boys have done a fair bit of race-baiting, but from what i understand it's usually more targeted, through push-polling or so-called dog-whistle racism. i don't know what percentage of persuadable likely voters in any state are racist enough to be persuaded by overtly racial attacks, but i would bet just about anything that in almost all cases it's lower than the percentage of likely persuadable voters who will be turned off by it.
August 21, 2006 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please respect Virginia tradition. It was Sen. William Scott (R, 1973-1979) who called the press conference to deny allegations he was the dumbest man in the Senate.
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Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 21, 2006 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
is that for real? it reminds me of a story i've heard about lbj, that when he was running for office for the first time he told his campaign manager he wanted to call his opponent a pig fucker. the campaign manager allegedly was was aghast and said something to the effect that there was no basis for the charge. according to the story i heard lbj responded that fine, but let the guy deny it. he would have enjoyed running against scott quite a bit.
August 21, 2006 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, that's sort of the problem. i think allen winning the republican nomination for president is our best hope to get the white house back, and it looks much less likely since macaca happened.
August 21, 2006 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember it hitting the DC papers when I lived there at the time. Wikipedia has a reference on the disambiguation page.
There was competition. Shortly after the press conference, there was a minor bombing of a bathroom in the Capitol. Hugh Scott (R-PA) held a press conference and confided that he believed it was a political act.
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Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 21, 2006 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd forgotten there was an Independent Green candidate. Let's hope Gail Parker doesn't end up being the Ralph Nader of this election.
We really need instant-runoff voting or something similar.
DC Drinking Liberally
August 21, 2006 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Webb, a Vet and a former Sec'y of the Navy under Reagan who turned to the Dems when the Republicans went completely crazy a few years ago will clean Allen's clock. More so in a security and defense oriented state like Virginia, which has been increasingly blue anyway in recent years.
Allen for President in '08? Not so much.
August 21, 2006 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean the Green Party isn't an official arm of the GOP? Could have fooled me. (See PA, and MD.)
August 21, 2006 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just as gay marriage is a big losing issue among younger voters, racial slurs are too
I do love my g-g-generation :o). Unfortunately, we're going to have to clean up the mess that the boomers in power are leaving. Sigh.
August 21, 2006 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
So maybe we need historians to decide who was the dumbest Scott in the history of the Congress?
Tom
August 21, 2006 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
How the heck did the Democrats field such a serious candidate in what must have looked like a losing proposition. Allen needs to worry. He will never get right of Webb on National Defense. At the same time Webb's national security positions fit nicely with Virginia Democrats. Allen's "Macaca" remark is liable to cause his bible thumpers to cool to their heals. As somebody said, he will keep his racist vote, but in a Democratic year who says they will come out to vote. Minorities on the other hand will vote and will vote in numbers. I think Virginia is going to be a hell of a race. By the way, the Macaca thing won't mean a thing unless Webb can close the deal. I have a hunch he has that ability. Odds are still with Allen, but he doesn't look invincible. Virginia might turn out to be the shocker of the year. Don't tell George.
Ron Byers
August 21, 2006 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah sweet justice. Sometimes fate and a big mouth work better than any planned strategy.
August 22, 2006 2:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I discovered the following on the web: "George Allen is credited with beginning a Virginia Republican renaissance when he started as a prohibitive underdog and defeated Mary Sue Terry, an established, well-financed Democrat, to take back the governor's office in 1993 for the GOP after 12 years of Democratic control."
...nice story, but it obscures a deeper, more disturbing truth. We all remember Mary Sue Terry's lead in the polls ... and soon before the election, your more irresponsible news outlets were publicizing a story spread by an obscure psychiatrist named William Gray. Gray was claiming that once upon a time he had treated a "lesbian lover" of the Attorney General's, someone he said later committed suicide. Pressed for details to back up his story, Gray took the opportunity to claim "doctor/patient confidentiality"(!). What was less publicized was the fact that Gray had lost his medical license in California owing to allegations of child molestation, charges that would be repeated after he set up shop in Virginia. When Mary Sue Terry learned of the case, she was publicly outraged at the lack of communication between state medical boards. In short, Dr. Gray had an ax to grind.
I've personally seen no evidence whatsoever of any communication between the Allen campaign and Gray (on the other hand, I've never really looked). What is beyond doubt, however, is that George Allen benefited to no small degree by this explosive rumor circulated by an enemy of his opponent. And what happened to Gray? He relocated to the Philippines following Allen's victory. His act of petty vengeange, in my view, was more instrumental in George Allen's rise than the efforts of such state media figures as Ross Mackenzie and Forrest Landon combined.
September 11, 2006 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink