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RI-SEN: Poll: Laffey Crushing Chafee In Primary
A new poll out from Rhode Island College shows that conservative challenger Steve Laffey is crushing incumbent GOP Senator Lincoln Chaffee among likely GOP primary voters by 17 points -- 51%-34%. Fifteen percent are undecided -- that is, less are undecided than the point spread. Chafee really is on course to lose this thing.
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This would seem to lean heavily towards a Democratic pick-up opportunity.
If the Republicans throw high dollars in for Chafee prior to the primary, and Chafee loses, odds are the "moderates" in Rhode Island will go for the Democratic nominee, which looks to be Whitehouse.
August 31, 2006 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is great news. A Laffey win turns Whitehouse into the heavy favorite for November. If Linc goes down all Whitehouse has to do is drift a bit towards the center between the primary and November to ensure those moderates don't give Laffey a second look.
OTOH If Chaffee wins, Whitehouse is in a genuine dogfight to see who can get 51% of the votes. It would siphon off resources that could go to other races that desperately need a boost (like Talent/McCaskill, or Kean/Menendez)
August 31, 2006 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the discussion on why RI doesn't get the same treatment as CT will continue, even though we all know the answer.
What will Liddy Dole's fundraisers do, though, if Chafee gets bumped? One presumes that in strictly financial terms, it might make life easier: instead of a close race to defend, with relatively high expenditure in a small market, the NRSC is likely to say 'the Club for Growth got you the nomination, so they'll be paying you through the general'. That frees up money for Ohio or Virginia or one of the other more competitive races.
One other point: the media had the excuse until now that there was no direct public polling for the GOP primary upon which to base discussion of Chafee's potential ousting. That excuse is gone.
August 31, 2006 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
This was hard for me to believe...until I remembered that a few days ago, Chafee committed the worst gaffe of this campaign year from anyone not named Burns, Allen, or Harris, saying that even Osama bin Laden should not get the death penalty.
Remember, Chafee's never really been through a tough campaign; he didn't so much win his seat as inherit it (appointed when his much more distinguished father died).
August 31, 2006 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if there will any outpouring of support from liberals for a Chafee loss. Who will be our side's Kristol, Hannity, or Limbaugh, decrying this as the downfall of bipartisanship?
Maybe Atrios should offer a "Wanker of the day award" for the first democrat to lament the "savage treatment of a decent man."
August 31, 2006 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if Lieberman will speak out for Chaffey? Has he condemned and deplored the extreme fringe element and rabid "partisanship" in the Republican party?
Where are the critical, heart-sick commentaries from Klein, Broder, Brooks, et al?
August 31, 2006 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
When it came to the crunch, Chafee voted more or less reliably with the GOP leadership on key issues. (Same goes for the Maine Queens, those other vaunted moderates.) He had the advantage of a well-respected father whose New Englan Republican credentials belonged to a long-gone era. If he'd had any spine, he'd have done a Jeffords.
If 10 of the 14 or so Republicans in Rhode Island think he's no longer representative of their views, then that's entirely their choice in a state that has partisan primaries.
August 31, 2006 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why would we get involved in the Chaffee GOP self destruction? Rule #1: When your opponent is digging a hole, let him do it! In this case, the GOP is about to put a wingnut extremist up against a Moderate/Liberal in a very blue state.
Also, we have better things to fight for--like getting Rid of Lieberman and getting rid of as many Repugs in CONgress as possible.
No, I think we can claim the moral high ground in this battle and in CT by staying out of it. Let's not give the Repugs any reason to bitch about us and at the same time preserve our ability to attack the Repugs for keeping HoJo in a race he should already have left. What's happening in CT is an internal democratic matter, where the GOP is interjecting itself where it shouldn't be (in a race that is essentially a battle in the Democratic party). I like Chaffee to a certain point, but would be thrilled to gain a seat in RI and at the same time use a lack of our involvement in Chaffee's race to get rid of Benedict Lieberman.
August 31, 2006 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The accuracy of this poll should be tempered by the fact that Rhode Island has a modified open primary in which Independents can vote in either (but not both) party primaries. Because Chafee, a Republican, has been elected by this predominantly Democrat state before, a more telling poll would be one that includes the opinion of Indpependents. That being said, don't under estimate the influence of the Club for Growth (i.e former Pennsylvania Congressman and Senate candidate Pat Toomey) which is backing Laffey. This Reagonomic organization raises many flags. It seems willing to risk a precious GOP seat in the Senate ... for other long-term goals? ... by riding anti-incumbent sentiment with the backing of a questionable candidate.
August 31, 2006 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rule #2: When your opponent is struggling to stay afloat, hand him an anvil.
The big question is, can we get seven seats in the senate (six if Lieberman loses to Lamont, seven, in case Lieberman wins).
I think we are getting close. We need one or two more macaques (republican party melt downs in the face of desperation) and Bush won't be able to install any new persons to ambassadorships or courts or pass by treaty what he couldn't pass by legislation.
He that hath a trade, hath an estate - from Poor Richards Almanac - Benjamin Franklin
August 31, 2006 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I live in Rhode Island, I'm a Democrat, and I think Linc Chafee is a decent man. He voted against the Iraq war resolution in 2002, which is more than a lot of Democratic congresscreatures can say. I'm not going to vote for him, because I want Democrats in the Senate. Sheldon Whitehouse is a big zero, as far as I'm concerned -- just another machine Democrat, but I'll vote for him. It's a goddamn shame that Chafee is going down the drain like this. He really is a decent man.
August 31, 2006 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh. but yes, I'm a notorious wanker. Forgot to mention that.
August 31, 2006 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not going to get into the politics of Chafee's death penalty remarks but he merely stated his position honestly. Chafee is opposed to the death penalty, period. RI executed an innocent man as a colony which is the explanation Chafee gave. That's old-school morality. Awful politically in a debate but it's admirable that the man gives the same answers regardless of the crowd. I'll bet Chafee takes 95% of the Colonial Historian vote in RI.
It's awful politics to explain it as he did based on some centuries old Rhode Island incident when talking about Bin Laden but Chafee IS an awful politician. At least he's honest with himself which is to his great credit. He doesn't do the Machiavellian thing where he tells himself it's OK to lie to the voters for some greater good.
A lot of people make fun of Chafee for not being tough enough (me included) but if the GOP needed one vote to put themselves over the top in the Senate on a contentious issue it's going to be a Dem that they pay off, not Chafee.
He'll be happy outside the Senate, I wish him all the best.
September 1, 2006 1:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read this poll with a heavy dose of salt. In Rhode Island, Independents can vote in a party primary. Chafee made a big push to get Democrats (with not much of a contest) to register as independents and vote in the Republican primary. There is no way of knowing how many Democrats did so, or how many Independents are likely to vote in the primary or how many are likely to vote for either Chafee or Laffey. So stay tuned.
September 1, 2006 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink