The Tuscon Weekly has come out with the first official poll on the free-for-all to take over the open House seat in Arizona's 8th district. On the Democratic side, Gabrielle Giffords is leading with 45% of the vote. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone but Patty Weiss, who has been suggesting she's the frontrunner. Weiss falls in at 27% here, followed by Jeff Latas with 6%. (Weiss has gone to Latas' home to try and convince him drop out.)

The Republican results are the real shocker. Pundit wisdom has it that state Rep. Steve Huffman is the man to beat. Like Giffords, he has all the newspaper endorsements, as well as the blessing of retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe. But the Weekly poll shows him trailing anti-immigration firebrand Randy Graf -- the one who's chummy with the Minutemen -- by 23%. State Party Chair Mike Hellon took in 10%. Still, a startling 39% of GOPers are still undecided, so the race is far from over.

Intriguingly, over 20 percent of Republicans said they'd consider voting for the Dem if their preferred candidate loses the GOP primary. That's good news for whichever Dem is left standing on September 12.