Today’s Supreme Court decision in the matter of League of United Latin American Citizens, et al. v. Perry, et al. could potentially either have a big impact in Texas this year, or could have none if it does not take effect until the next round of elections.

The case was actually a number of different claims combined into one ruling. The 2003 redistricting was challenged on the grounds that it: 1) amounted to a statewide violation of the Voting Rights Act based on the partisan nature of the gerrymandering; 2) violated the Voting Rights Act in the 23rd and 24th Districts based on the distribution of Latino voters; and 3) was unconstitutional based on the nature of the mid-decade redistricting. The 1st and 3rd claims were thrown out as well as the claim regarding the 24th District, while the court ruled the claim regarding the 23rd Congressional district is valid.

What does this mean for the election? The district court will have to decide whether changes to the 23rd District (potentially affecting multiple other districts) take effect before this election or for the next election. The race in the 23rd pits Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla against Rick Bolanos (D), in what does not seem to be a very competitive race. The court must also decide whether it will draw the new map or whether it will make the legislature do it in the next session (in January). The ruling will probably impact the 23rd, 25th, and 28th districts, held by Henry Bonilla, Lloyd Dogget, and Henry Cuellar respectively. It also opens the possibility of a special election down the road. How they are all reworked will eventually determine whether any of these districts become particularly close. Charles Kuffner, at both offthekuff and his Houston Chronicle blog has good run downs of what this could mean for various candidates.

SCOTUS Blog has a good run down of the decision and gives a feel for the fractured nature of the court right now (lots of good stuff there for legal junkies). Despite the fact that Justice Kennedy seemed to be open to a future ruling on whether partisan gerrymandering needed to be reigned in, Texas was not the case for him.