No suprise, really. This is a soldily conservative district in which Sweeney has run virtually un-opposed since I moved here six years ago. The problem seems to be that people are just not given a good alternative. There is virutually no penetration for the democratic challenger, no money being spent. It's a shame, really, because while this is a conservative area, it's not a stupid one, and Sweeney isn't really well liked. I don't think he could stand up to a serious, well funded challenge.

Sweeney didn't switch districts. New York lost two congressional seats in 2002, and redistricting had the effect of enlarging and renumbering Sweeney's district. In general, it's the same district that Gerry Solomon held easily for twenty years before Sweeney (though it was redistricted three times under Solomon, too), and it's a very safe Republican seat. Gerry died and Sweeney was installed, simple as that.

Take a look.

Note that the Democratic concentrations in Albany County, Schenectady County, and western Rensselaer County (Troy) have been carefully cut out of the district. The only Democrats north of there are in the city of Saratoga Springs, but they only affect municipal elections. You have to look very closely to see that the 20th doesn't include all of Dutchess County: the 22nd darts briefly over the Hudson to snag Poughkeepsie, then retreats.

It's drawn as a G.O.P. district, no doubt about it. All rural and suburban, no cities.

Where it gets at least a bit interesting is in Columbia and Greene Counties, which have seen some northward, Democrat-tinged migration -- though not as much as counties further down the Hudson valley. Nevertheless these are still very rural areas, which around here means Republican. Newcomers won't meaningfully tip the numbers.

Sweeney's a lock. On the day he's not, the New York G.O.P will reward somebody else with the 20th District.

It's an open question whether this is a bad thing. It makes the Democrats Mike McNulty (21st) and Maurice Hinchey (22nd) quite secure.

LQ

Hi Ben,

I don't doubt that Gillibrand is a serious public servant. She's been grooming for a while, now taking a calculated plunge. Her numbers absolutely will improve after those big media buys. With a very strong top of the statewide ticket -- both New York senators and the governor will be Democrats come 2007 -- anything can happen.

Couple of things about Sweeney. Those Union College photos don't hurt him with his base, they're probably a net positive. Heck, they barely hurt him with anybody. Why should they? Can't go shake some hands at a college beer party? Sheesh.

And Sweeney's supporters are if anything proud of his appalling "Congressman Kickass" performance in the 2000 Florida recounts. Too bad the Dems didn't run a real candidate sooner, cuz it's spilt, expired milk six years on.

Could a "Crass, Chads & Frats" recipe mobilize the opposition? Maybe a little but, as mentioned, I just don't think the numbers are there (go here and scroll down to the 20th District). In Saratoga County, for instance, there are twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats.

I think Sweeney's a fairly typical upstate Republican, meaning he's a Rockefeller Republican at heart, but has ladled social conservatism because of recent national winds. If they stop blowing as hard, he can adjust.

And Sweeney is likable. He has a good rapport with our huge regional public radio provider, over whose airwaves he is presented as committed and reasonable. And he has juice in D.C. That means he can deliver. On some level, voters will reckon whether it's in their local interest to start over with a junior congresswoman.

There are two factors that could remove Sweeney. Around here (I live in Troy now, lived and agitated in Saratoga Springs for years, and mostly grew up in rural Washington County -- and went to college in Poughkeepsie), folks don't yet appreciate his campaign-finance issues. It's one thing for your wife to be your chief campaign consultant, it's another for her to be paid on commission. Don't tell me contributors don't know that 10% of their money is going into the congressman's household.

If such winking can be illustrated fully and calmly ("It's the commissions, stupid"), it'll hurt. Unfortunately (could be wrong, here) I don't think the numbers are gaudy. It's not clear that Mrs. Sweeney realizes a windfall relative to a salaried arrangement. If she hasn't, that'll be the response. Sweeney will switch her to fee-based, apologize, and that's that. It's also what he should do, and probably will. Sweeney's not exactly my kind of public servant but he's not George Bush, either. He's not dangerous, just cynical enough to bank some bona fides in Palm Beach, back when. You only get to pull that crap once.

The other complication is Sweeney's health, which may be worse than we know. If the investigative heat goes to 11 and his doctors are telling him to chill, a handful of corporate board seats and lots of golf could start looking real attractive, real fast.

But there's no clear G.O.P. successor in the wings, so Sweeney has to persevere through the election in any case. All things considered he's very likely to win in 2006; 2008 may be Gillibrand's year, may in fact be what she's thinking, too.

Running (and funding) a serious Democratic candidate in the 20th breaks big-time cloakroom gerrymandering china. There will be fallout, and faces to save. One way the insitution copes is to keep change orderly, respectful, and slow, making sure nobody's humiliated. It may already be written that Gillibrand has to wait two years, then face a sporting "fair fight" against whomever the next Sweeney is. If the G.O.P. loses the 20th on those terms ... well, it could live with that. They'll get it back somewhere else. Welcome to New York.

LQ

ps. I should clarify that Sweeney didn't succeed Solomon because of death, rather that Solomon's retirement, Sweeney's installation, and Solomon's subsequent death happened in less than two years. You could feel the arc.