If Rep. Bob Ney (R) were lucky, perhaps the latest bad news would’ve broken late on the Friday afternoon before what will be for many a four-day weekend. Ney’s troubles go back way before this week, of course, but perhaps the best-case scenario at this point would be for news like this to surface while most people are barbecuing or watching fireworks.
Rasmussen has released its numbers on the Minnesota senate and gubernatorial races. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (DFL) leads Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) 47% to 44%, and Attorney General Mike Hatch (DFL) leads Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) 47% to 42%.
Klobuchar’s lead is within the survey’s 4.5% margin of error. In Rasmussen’s May poll Klobuchar led 45% to 43%.
The Hartford Courant finds that Democratic senators have trouble talking about their colleague in Connecticut. Asked whether they will support an independent Lieberman bid, most bravely avoid the question. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-NV) spokeswoman offered the circular, "Sen. Lieberman is a Democrat and Sen. Reid supports all Democrats." Assistant Minority Leader Richard Durbin (D-IL) ducked with, “I'm not going to accept your premise.”
JPEG boats, rockets and stacks of gambling chips are out in full force across the web today in advertisements, e-mail appeals, and blog posts as candidates make one last fundraising push. For challengers in Senate and House races across the country, midnight local time is make or break; the FEC’s second quarter fundraising period ends today.
The results will be scrutinized in the coming weeks to see if the challengers have a shot at defeating better funded incumbent candidates. For candidates still in primaries, the results will reveal who is stronger and better positioned for the general.
Below is a list of races whose reports we are keeping a close eye on.
Howard Dean was the star of a Democratic rally in Arizona last night at the Tuscon Temple of Music and Art. He predicted that voters would “split Arizona's congressional delegation in half” and elect four Democratic Representatives and one Democratic senator. He stirred up some speculation about his personal favorites when he announced, “And CD 8 will elect a Democratic congresswoman...I mean, congressperson. I’m neutral.” Three women and three men are competing in the Democratic primary for the open seat. Outside, a small group of conservative protestors yelled “Viva Jon Kyl.”
The New York Times has confirmed the claims made by Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) that his opponent is making a Swift Boat-style attack film against him.
State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. is producing “a long-form film” accusing Menendez of being part of a “massive illegal kickback scheme” when he was a Union City government official in the late 1970s and early ‘80s. A major claim in the film will be that Menendez testified in a 1982 trial unfolding from Union City government corruption in order to avoid prosecution.
Congressional candidate and Vanderburgh County sheriff Brad Ellsworth’s (D) month long nemesis, accused child molester Matthew Long, is finally behind bars in Ohio.
Here we go again.
Or, as Marie Cocco begins her June 27 column, “The corpse will be revived.”
Last Friday Grover Norquist spoke at an American Prospect breakfast, and Cocco reports he had this to say about reviving efforts to privatize Social Security: “I believe that when there are 60 Republican senators we will move Social Security from the present Ponzi scheme to a fully funded, individually held system.”
Candidates for the GOP nomination for senator struggled once again to distinguish themselves during a televised debate at the University of Tennessee yesterday. Ed Bryant, Van Hilleary, and Bob Corker discussed taxes, the Iraq War, immigration and abortion for an hour, and found themselves agreeing on many of the issues. The candidates’ personal narratives may end up characterizing the men rather than the issues: Bryant presented himself as a strong fiscal conservative, while Hilleary emphasized national security and his military past. Corker focused on his personal success in the business world and his faith.
The Midterm Roundup can admit when it’s confused, and it kind of is after reading this article regarding Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s (R) rapport with gays in California. In September of 2005, he vetoed a bill that would have allowed same-sex marriage in California, but he has signed bills adding rights for domestic partners, strengthening hate-crimes statutes protecting gays and lesbians, as well as other anti-discrimination statutes.
Right now, Pennsylvanians might be facing more pressing concerns than the midterm elections. Even so, it’s worth comparing how the candidates in District 8 are reacting to the flood. Incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R) has put out a statement listing the ways he tried to prevent flooding in his first term. His legislative efforts may be commendable, but they aren’t doing much for the people currently fleeing Bucks County. Challenger Patrick Murphy (D), an Iraq war veteran, took a more practical approach: he’s organizing volunteers to provide supplies and shelter to evacuees. Murphy’s community service group, MurphyCorps, already does at least one service project a month. Past ventures include hosting a blood drive and building a YMCA playground. Clever campaign strategy? Maybe, but the evacuees MurphyCorps volunteers offer housing probably won’t care.
Dick Morris says in The Hill that Joe Lieberman “can’t win" the primary "and shoultn’t [sic] try.” He says that losing the primary will only weaken Lieberman, whereas polls show he has a very good chance of winning as a third-party candidate. A Rasmussen poll from June 19 backs Morris up, although Lamont’s take in a three-way race went up nine points from April to June.
GOP candidate Alan Schlesinger wants a three-way race too, as he told party members at the Prescott Bush Awards Dinner last night. If Lieberman and Lamont split the Democratic vote, he might actually have a chance of winning. "If [Gov.] Jodi Rell receives 60 percent of the vote on Nov. 7, am I asking too much for you to give me 37 percent?" Schlesinger asked the guests.
Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor (D) has inched within six points of incumbent Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) in the increasingly competitive Georgia governor’s race, according to a new Strategic Visions poll.
Attorneys working on behalf of the Alaskan legislature have determined that courts could find unconstitutional a provision in the state’s Stranded Gas Development Act that requires legislative approval for a contract negotiated by the governor. Governor Frank Murkowski finished negotiating a potential contract for building a natural gas pipeline earlier this year.
The governor’s office has not yet officially responded to the legal opinions, but its spokesman’s initial reaction has been to emphasize that Murkowski “has said pretty consistently that he has no intention of ignoring or bypassing the will of the Legislature.”
Michigan gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos (R) is going on the offensive against incumbent Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) over what he says is her failure to bring new automobile manufacturing to Michigan. The attacks play up on Granholm’s primary weakness: Michigan’s economy.
Not only did Representative Charles Taylor (R) put GE-authored legislation into a bill in order to help delay clean-up of a polluted river-site, and help, with Senator Conrad Burns (R-MT), Jack Abramoff’s client, the Saginaw Tribe, secure federal funding for a school in exchange for campaign donations. But now it seems that he’s also mired in a few garden variety scams to enrich himself and his friends: he allegedly helped a friend commit bank fraud and used his status as a member of Congress to buy the better part of a Russian bank. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), a Congressional watchdog group, released an ethics complaint against Taylor yesterday, alleging that he violated eight laws and House ethics statutes since he joined the House in 1990.
Justin Rood is right: with so many good Katherine Harris stories out there, it’s easy to get hooked. You try to cut down. But then one comes along that’s too good to pass up.
At a Putnam County Republican dinner last weekend, the Senate candidate and Republican congresswoman made a shocking claim. Several of Florida’s House Democrats, she said, told her they are rooting for her to defeat incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D). The Orlando Sentinel’s Jim Stratton, rightfully incredulous, contacted the state’s seven House Democrats. Here’s what two had to say.
Governor Bob Riley of Alabama may have Abramoff trouble.
A footnote on page 48 of the recently released report (large .pdf) from the Senate Indian Affairs Committee mentions a conversation between convicted felon Abramoff and a potential tribal client in which the former lobbyist bragged that a client of his, Mississippi Choctaw Chief Phillip Martin, spent $13 million on the 2002 campaign of Governor Bob Riley.
Former TV anchor Patty Weiss, who is competing with Gabrielle Giffords in the Democratic primary, has hired a new communications director. Andrew Myers was a speechwriter for Gov. Janet Napolitano and he worked on Barack Obama’s campaign. Before Weiss hired Myers, her old news director at KVOA had been volunteering for her.
TX: Supreme Court Rules… Sort of Supremely
The Supreme Court ruled Wednesday to uphold the basic outlines of a Republican Congressional redistricting plan in Texas, seeming to concede the legitimacy of mid-decade gerrymandering. Democrats won a minor victory when the court threw out a very small portion of the Texas Congressional map engineered by former Rep. Tom DeLay (R) in 2003. But the complex ruling included six separate opinions, and it’s not entirely clear what the consequences are going to be for this year’s elections, or beyond. Chris Angell takes our hand and leads us through the forest, and The Fix breaks down the winners and losers. Plus Hotline has some reactions from several law professors. Meanwhile Tom DeLay seems to think the ruling was a victory, even though the Texas redistricting gambit was the very crux of his political downfall, WaPo argues.
Two weeks ago I wrote about Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell’s most recent controversial foray into Ohio voter-registration laws. Ohio House Bill 3 came under fire for being unclear on two issues: what exactly constitutes “compensation” for Ohioans trying to sign up voters, and how exactly registrars were supposed to submit completed voter-registration forms. In response Blackwell, in his capacity as Secretary of State, proposed some changes to it. Monday the state legislature’s Joint Committee on Agency Rule Review (JCARR) voted along party lines to implement those changes, and state Democrats are upset about it.
Third party candidates filed petitions to make it onto the ballot on Monday. It would seem the Governor’s race has produced some unusual antics, and the race in the 8th Congressional district could get very interesting.
Another poll out in Rhode Island showing Lincoln Chafee to be vulnerable and the Governor’s race to be competitive. Chafee (R) trails Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 38% - 37%. Governor Governor Donald Carcieri (R) leads Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty (D) 44% - 39%.
The past couple days have seen a whirlwind back-and-forth lunchroom brawl between the Allen and Webb campaigns through their respective spokesmen, Dick Wadhams and Steve Jarding. Here’s how it went down:
Perry (R) – 35%
Friedman (I) – 21%
Bell (D) – 20%
Strayhorn (I) – 19%
Once again proving it’s good to be Kinky.
Rep. Curt Weldon, who has been claiming for some time that there are WMD in Iraq, had plans to go find them himself. It was to be a “personal political mission,” as the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. But Weldon’s source on all these conspiracy theories, a former Air Force special investigator Dave Gaubatz (profiled in the Times last week), didn’t like the congressman’s PR-oriented approach. Gaubatz wanted Weldon to alert the Defense Department; Weldon wanted to do the searching himself and keep it secret until they actually found something.
American Radio Works’ Marketplace reported on Monday that since 1996 ten current and former federal lawmakers have participated in an annual charity event attended by powerful oil lobbyists and hosted by the charity founded by Alaska First Lady Nancy Murkowski. The report found that at least three senators neglected to report the trip to the Waterfall fishing resort, which is located deep in the Alaskan wilderness and provides some of the best fishing in the world.
The senators who failed to report the trip are Kit Bond (R-MO) and Mike Enzi (R-WY), as well as former Senator Phill Gramm (R-TX). Because of the investigation the two sitting senators have pledged to reimburse the charity. Former Senator and current Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski (R) and House Speaker Dennis Hastert have also regularly gone on the trip.
When a western Republican senator announces legislation to limit future gas, oil and mineral leases on federal lands one of two explanations is available. He has gone mad, or he is facing a tough reelection campaign.
Things are heating up in the Nevada gubernatorial Democratic primary race. Dina Titus (D), responded to the attack ad sponsored by her opponent, Henderson mayor Jim Gibson (D), with a commercial—her first—of her own. In her ad, airing only in Reno, Titus attacks Gibson for “promising his Republican friends he would work to outlaw abortion.”
Rep. J.D. Hayworth wants the New York Times stripped of its credentials to cover Congress from inside the Capitol because of the article it printed on anti-terrorism surveillance in banking. He’s circulating a petition asking Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) to rescind the paper’s press passes.
Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich will officially announce his campaign for reelection today to news that he trails his challenger, Martin O’Malley (D), by 11 points in a new poll and the possible imminent collapse of a dam in Montgomery County caused by extreme rain fall in the Mid-Atlantic region over the past few days.
After a contentious debate, the AFL-CIO endorsed Sen. Joe Lieberman in his primary yesterday. Lieberman supporters reminded delegates that the senator votes in the AFL-CIO’s favor 84% of the time. Detractors said his votes for free-trade agreements undercut unions and his vote for the war tainted their image.
Technical difficulties on Election Central prevented the Midterm Roundup from being posted yesterday morning. The Roundup apologizes for its absence and as recompense offers up a slightly extended edition today.
No official word at the time the Midterm Roundup went to press, but early returns showed incumbent Chris Cannon (R) comfortably ahead of John Jacob (R) in Utah’s 3rd district Republican primary. While the district is conservative enough that this seat won’t change party hands in November, the primary result will serve as an augur for the big issue of no, not demonic harassment, but immigration. Get the morning’s results here or here.
A Rasmussen poll conducted June 21 has Senator Bob Menendez (D) leading his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. (R), 46% to 40%. The poll is a big improvement for Menendez – in May Rasmussen had him trailing 40% to 37%.
Menendez’s gains come mostly from within his own party, now that the state’s primaries are done. In May Menendez had the support of 59% of New Jersey Democrats. That number is now 77%.
Suffering from a late entry and low funds, gubernatorial candidate Jim Bryson (R) hopes that his strong anti-illegal immigration stance will bring out Tennessee voters unhappy about immigration and the changing ethnic composition of Tennessee. He appeared yesterday at a press conference with Heather Steffek, a young woman from Mt. Juliet, Tennessee, whose parents were killed on June 8 in a car crash in which the driver of the other car was an illegal immigrant, Gustavo Reyes Garcia. Bryson argued that this case proves that illegal immigration requires closer cooperation between local, state, and federal authorities: police had arrested Garcia seventeen times since 1997 without flagging his legal status. Bryson’s opponent, incumbent Governor Phil Bredesen (D) has said in the past that he believes immigration to be a national issue.
Ned Lamont has a new ad that Hotline says could become “legendary.” In the ad, Joe Lieberman’s voice comes out of George W. Bush’s mouth. At the end, a picture of Lieberman slowly morphs into one of Bush. Lieberman called the ad “BS” in front of AFL-CIO delegates today. He also sent out a statement in which he described himself as a “scathing critic of the Bush Administration.”
Former US Representative Tom Delay, who had been served with a subpoena on Friday, testified in federal court today in the trial over replacing him on the ballot in the 22nd Congressional District. This morning, he endured extensive questioning from both sides and from US District Court Judge Sam Sparks. The hearing revolves around two issues. The first is the distinction between being declared ineligible and withdrawing from the election (if a candidate is declared ineligible, he or she can be replaced by the party, if the candidate withdraws, he or she cannot be removed from the ballot.) The second issue is whether the attempt to remove Delay’s name is unconstitutional based on when exactly Delay has to be a resident of the district. (The Democrats argue that according to the Constitution, residency can only be established after election, if you are on the ballot, you are one, and can only be determined to be a resident once you are elected)
The latest Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Mike DeWine (R) leading Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) 46%-39%. It also has DeWine’s favorability rating several points higher than Brown’s.
The latest Survey USA poll has Brown ahead 48%-39% – with DeWine ahead 13 percentage points among “the youngest voters.” Survey USA also has DeWine’s approval rating at 41%.
The latest WSJ/Zogby poll has Brown ahead almost 13 percentage points. He has led DeWine since October.
What gives? Why is Brown up 13 in one poll, and down 7 in another?
In the best of circumstances, accepting campaign donations from the creators of the infamous, racist “Willie Horton” and “White Hands” political ads might be a bad idea. For an African American candidate to accept money from the creators of such ads, it seems would be an incredibly stupid campaign move.
But is this really a matter of concern or just another unfair double standard placed on black candidates?
In the run-up to Sunday's New Jersey Senate debate between incumbent Senator Bob Menendez (D) and state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R), the Kean campaign attempted to recast a key part of the incumbent’s record: his testimony against a powerful figure in New Jersey’s political machine more than twenty years ago.
The story being peddled by Kean and his people is transparently false: two stories published in the New York Times and Newark’s Star-Ledger over the weekend disputed their accusations, which contend that Menendez resisted helping prosecutors in their case against then-Union City Mayor William Musto, but changed his tune when threatened with prosecution for involvement in the scandal as a school official for that city.
By most accounts, Jon Tester (D) won the first debate of the Montana Senate race Sunday without having to mention the issue that makes his opponent, incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns (R), most vulnerable.
If Joe Lieberman decides to run as an independent, he will announce the decision publicly before the Aug. 8 primary. “It will not be done covertly,” he said on Friday. But the New Haven Independent’s Paul Bass doesn’t think the senator’s quite on the level. This weekend, Lieberman sent out a direct-mail flier that Bass says contains blatant lies about Ned Lamont’s record and features a distorting, grainy picture of the primary challenger.
Heartwarming news from yesterday’s Columbus Dispatch. Earlier this month, Rep. Bob Ney (R) drove through the night from Ohio to Washington to give a group of 84 middle school students a personal tour of the Capitol. A traffic delay had caused the group to miss its scheduled tour, and when the office of Rep. Michael G. Oxley (R-OH), who represents the school’s district, said there was nothing it could do, tour guide Violet Cummings called Ney, her representative. Ney came through, and now Cummings, a Democrat elected to the Cambridge (OH) Board of Education, has switched her support from Ney’s challenger, Zack Space, to the embattled congressman.
Eliot Spitzer (D), the attorney general of New York and the current front-runner in the New York gubernatorial race, endorsed Carl Andrews (D) in the 11th district Democratic primary yesterday. Spitzer’s challenger for the Democratic nomination, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi immediately attacked the attorney general for his endorsement of Andrews, who for years had close ties with Clarence Norman Jr., a former Assemblyman who was convicted of corruption charges last year.
Harry Mitchell, the Democratic candidate for Arizona’s 5th District, released a list of 13 Republican elected officials, current and former, who support him over Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) this weekend.
Not to be outdone, Hayworth publicized his own cross-party support: Craig Columbus, his 2002 general election opponent. Columbus will head up “Democrats for J.D.”
With the name of Joe Lieberman on everybody’s lips these days, the Midterm Roundup offers up a post-weekend Micro-Roundup:
Senator Lieberman (D) announced Friday that if he decides to petition his way onto the November ballot as an independent candidate he will publicly announce his plans prior to the August 8 primary. Political commentator Dick Morris told Political Wire over the weekend that unless Lieberman does in fact run as an independent he will lose the election altogether. Might want to start collecting those signatures…
