Now that the primaries are out of the way, it’s time to focus on the horse race in the great state of Maine. Rasmussen brings us the first post-primary poll showing incumbent (but not popular) Governor John Baldacci (D) just barely beating challenger State Senator Chandler Woodcock (R) 45% - 43%. Baldacci has been consistently showing poor popularity numbers, so this is not a huge surprise, but it continues to point to the likelihood of this being a competitive race.

While the 14th district is not one that we are covering regularly, it is a race that might be interesting. More to the point, however, today it gives us some out-of-the-ordinary election news. Generally, when you don’t support a bill (i.e. vote for it), you don’t try to laud its passing. However, incumbent Representative Ron Paul (R) recently put out a press release highlighting his supposed role in securing hurricane recovery funds for his coastal-Texas district:

Read more »

Democrats’ hopes for reclaiming the South Carolina governorship this cycle have always been a long shot, given the state’s conservatism. A new poll out from Rasmussen once again confirms that state Senator Tommy Moore (D) faces an uphill battle to Columbia.

Gov. Mark Sanford (R) leads Moore 51 to 39 percent and the poll found that a respectable 67 percent of respondents held a favorable view of Sanford, despite his frequent squabbles with the General Assembly (a supposed campaign issue).

Read more »

A poll (.pdf) performed by Rutgers University and the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling has Sen. Robert Menendez (D) leading Republican challenger state Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. 42% to 38% among registered voters, just outside the 3.7% margin of error.

The poll, conducted by phone between June 14 and 19, also asked New Jersey voters about their attitudes toward President Bush. Only 31% of respondents approved of the job he was doing, while 62% disapproved. This spells bad news for Keane, whom voters are increasingly associating with the president. Fifty percent made such an association, up from 43% in March.

Read more »

In the race for Alabama governor, incumbent Bob Riley leads Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley 54% to 40% according to a Rasmussen poll of likely voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.5%.

Both candidates have gained support over the past month – in a May Rasmussen poll Riley garnered 49% support of likely voters and Baxley got 37%, but the new poll is naturally better news for Riley than his opponent.

Read more »

The Lieberman campaign has accused Ned Lamont of flip-flopping on the war in Iraq. On Wednesday, Lamont posted a statement on his website supporting the amendment proposed by Senators Carl Levin (D-MI) and Jack Reed (D-RI). The amendment was a non-binding call for the beginning of withdrawal this year. A more forceful amendment, proposed by John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) asked for all troops to leave Iraq by July 1, 2007. The Levin-Reed Amendment got 44 votes; the Kerry-Feingold Amendment 13.

Read more »

Many Republicans hoped that John Dendahl would wage a fierce campaign against Democratic incumbent Bill Richardson in the New Mexico governor’s race; and, despite assertions downplaying his abrasive political style, he has already gone on the offensive.

Read more »

It was a fun ride while it lasted, but the Marc Holtzman Colorado gubernatorial campaign ended yesterday when the state’s Supreme Court refused to hear his argument for why he should appear on the August 8 GOP primary ballot. Shortly after the decision came down Holtzman appeared at a press conference to announce his support of Representative Bob Beauprez (R) in the race.

Read more »

Sen. Rick Santorum (R) is standing behind his assertion that prewar claims about Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq have been proven by a partially declassified Defense Department report. The report, from April 2006, reveals that American forces found about 500 rounds of chemical-weapons shells containing “degraded” mustard or sarin nerve gas buried in Iraq. It does not suggest that the findings contradict the 2004 Defense Department report stating that Saddam Hussein had no chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons program in the years leading up to the war in Iraq. Defense officials believe the shells were produced before the first Gulf War, for use in the 1988 war with Iran. Experts say nerve gas from the 1980s is probably not dangerous.

Read more »

It was a day of drop-outs and add-ons in nationwide gubernatorial races. First, the drop-outs…

MD-GOV: Surprise Exit Smoothes Path for Ehrlich

Underdog but aggressive candidate Doug Duncan (D) abruptly drops out of Maryland’s gubernatorial race following a diagnosis of clinical depression. Here’s Duncan’s announcement. And Jay Antenen has more.

CO-GOV: “It’s Over, Man.”

After a long battle and appeal to get on the November ballot for Colorado’s open governorship, candidate Marc Holtzman (R) gets the final shutdown courtesy of the Colorado Supreme Court. A little more from the AP.

Next, the add-ons…

Read more »

Right, at this point if you’re a Republican congressman from California, you might want to think about just not doing any earmarks anymore… for anything… ever. Just to be safe. WaPo reports on the possibly earmark-contingent real estate deals of Representatives Ken Calvert (R) of California’s 44^th and Gary Miller (R) of the 42^nd, along with House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-IL).

Read more »

Bloomberg reports on its review of Representative Alan Mollohan’s tax records and other financial documents today, estimating that Mollohan steered at least $197 million in government contracts to 21 companies and nonprofits that donated to the Robert H. Mollohan Family Charitable Foundation. Mollohan is the secretary of his family’s foundation. The 21 organizations contributed more than $225,000 to the charity in 2004, accounting for nearly half of its revenue.

Read more »

President Bush will appear with Sen. Mike DeWine (R) at a June 30 Powell, OH fundraiser for the senator and the Ohio Republican Party. The most recent WSJ/Zogby poll shows DeWine trailing Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) by 12.7 percentage points. Among the incumbents in competitive races that the poll tracks, not even Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) trails by as much as DeWine.

Read more »

Underdog candidate Doug Duncan (D) unexpectedly pulled out of the Maryland governor’s race today, just as his campaign appeared to be on the up tick following months of trailing Democrat Martin O’Malley in the polls and fundraising.

The Montgomery County executive said this afternoon that he had recently been diagnosed with clinical depression and wanted to focus on his health.

Read more »

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) has apologized to White House correspondent Helen Thomas for taking a cruel jab at her during the Iowa State convention. "There probably are not 72 virgins in the hell he's at," King said of killed terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. "And if there are, they probably all look like Helen Thomas."

Read more »

A Rhode Island College poll shows both the Senate and Governor’s races very close. The poll, conducted June 14th and published yesterday, shows a potential tight race between incumbent Senator Lincoln Chaffee (R) and state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D), with Chaffee leading Whitehouse, 43% - 40% and 17% undecided. A race between Whitehouse and Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R) would not be nearly as close with Whitehouse beating Laffey 58% - 27% and 16% undecided. In the Governor’s race, incumbent Governor Donald Carcieri (R) leads Democratic challenger Lt. Governor Charles Fogarty 44%-39% with 17% undecided.

Yesterday Zogby International released a mass of polling data through the Wall Street Journal’s Web site featuring some of the most competitive races for Senate and governor. (The poll results link requires Flash.)

The monster poll shows an improvement in the numbers for Democrats to seize a Senate majority, and very encouraging news for Dems in gubernatorial races.

Read more »

Wouldn’t it be great to have a series of $15,000 signs on the highway reminding every commuter of your name? Well, in Illinois all you have to do is be Governor Rod R. Blagojevich (D).

Read more »

Joe Lieberman stood bereft of fellow Democrats on the Senate floor yesterday when he announced his intention to vote against both his party’s Iraq proposals. The senator wasn’t completely alone: Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) and Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) were there to offer him support. "You have shown tremendous leadership," Warner said. "Each day you grow in stature as a statesman," Warner said after the speech. "This vote will clearly be a part of our making the case for the need for change in Washington," said Tom Swan, Ned Lamont's campaign manager.

Read more »

Well it was quite a day for the little people the blogosphere over. The Kentucky state government banned access to the muckraking political site www.bluegrassreport.com, plus a bunch of other sites, including us here at TPM. Here’s all the action in case you missed it, along with the administration’s official response. Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) has been the eye of one of the state’s biggest corruption storms ever for over a year now. The AP has some thoughts on the scandal, and similar ones that have cropped up in other states.

CT-SEN: Between Iraq and a Hard Place

Senator Joe Lieberman is in a tight spot, with Democratic colleagues forcing him to go on the record again on that ever-nagging Iraq issue.

Read more »

Now TPMMuckraker’s Justin Rood reports that Representative Ben Chandler (D) of Kentucky’s 6^th district has come out against the Kentucky state government’s blog ban, calling it “a violation of the equal protection clause of the Constitution.”

Read more »

A new poll by EPIC-MRA shows that the Michigan governor’s race is closer than a previous EPIC poll showed two weeks ago. Republican challenger Dick DeVos led Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) 46 to 44 percent. The previous poll found the split to be 48 to 40 percent.

Read more »

Apparently, Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher's (R) taste for favoritism extends beyond Human Resources.  Mark Nickolas at BluegrassReport.org received notice this morning that his site—which has been sharply critical of Fletcher's administration and its alleged patronage system—had been blocked from all state-owned computers.  Now, according to the updates at that site and across the internet, new blogs keep turning up on the blocked list, including Wonkette, Talking Points Memo, TPMmuckraker and Atrios.

Read more »

When the House takes a field trip to the border states this August, they’ll probably spend some time in Arizona. Rep. J.D. “Whatever It Takes” Hayworth (R) will welcome them with open arms. He praised the House’s decision to hold off a vote on immigration until after a series of field hearings in the Southwest as “excellent news.”

Read more »

Lawyer and former Clinton Administration official Deval Patrick (D) is leading in a poll for the democratic primary in Massachusetts. In the poll, 36% of the respondents support Patrick, 31% back Attorney General Tom Reilly (D), and 23% support businessman Chris Gabrielli (D). The numbers have not changed much since April: Patrick is holding steady while Reilly has slipped a bit and Gabrielli has gained 4 points.

A SurveyUSA tracking poll shows Senator Lincoln Chaffee (R) continuing to struggle in Rhode Island. Chaffee’s approval ratings have slipped to 49% while his disapprove numbers have climbed to 44%. Meanwhile, his primary opponent, Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R), has launched a new ad attacking Chaffee for not debating him.

"The Death Tax." Sounds a lot more ominous than "the estate tax," the repeal of which the House and Senate will vote on again this week. A key vote in the Senate will be that of Maria Cantwell (D), who voted against repealing the estate tax two weeks ago.

Read more »

The right move for the Sierra Club is a bit of bad news for Democrats trying to recapture the House and Senate.

Sierra, convinced that involvement in state legislative races will better serve the organization’s goals, plans on slashing its funding of candidates at the federal level in the 2006 election cycle.

Read more »

It’s hard to imagine Montana having much of a role in aeronautics research, but thanks to the earmarking efforts of Senator Conrad Burns (R) the state has seen a mini-bonanza in space related endeavors over the past few years as millions of federal dollars have flowed into Missoula, home of the University of Montana.

The boom times are now coming to an end as federal and state agencies have begun to investigate the outfits funded by Burns. The Montana Legislative Auditor officially released its audit report yesterday on the groups, NASA’s inspector general is conducting a separate investigation, and the FBI has made inquiries about an individual affiliated with the earmarks.

Read more »

South Dakota lawmakers have collected $11,827 for a “life protection sub fund.” One hundred sixty-eight citizens and groups interested in protecting the state’s highly restrictive abortion ban contributed to the fund. The money will be used to pay legal expenses if the ban is challenged to court. If it went to the Supreme Court, a battle over the law could cost the state up to $1 million. If voters reject the ban when it goes on the ballot in November, the money may be used to defend other state laws “that regulate or proscribe abortion or contraception.”

Earlier this year, the Village Voice investigated the ways the South Dakota government was raising money to defend the ban. In this week’s New Yorker, Cynthia Gorney writes that the ban is too extreme for many South Dakotans, including those who oppose abortion.

The SurveyUSA June tracking poll has Montana Senator Conrad Burns (R) now tied with Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (R) for least popular senator in the country.

The poll found that only 36 percent of respondents viewed Burns favorably, the same percentage as Santorum. However, Burns has managed to edge out Santorum with a whopping 60 percent of respondents disapproving of him, compared to 55 percent for Santorum.

Read more »

Lieberman’s approval rating fell four points in a SurveyUSA poll, from 59% to 55%. The Hartford Courant thinks today’s Senate vote on the war in Iraq, which has put many Democrats in an awkward position, will be particularly difficult for the senator. If he supports the Democratic plan to propose redeployment by the end of the year, he would look inconsistent on one of his core issues. If he opposes the plan, he’ll be one of a few in his party siding with the GOP. He could cement his image as “Bush’s Favorite Democrat” and hurt his (already shaky) chances of winning the primary.

Read more »

Welcome to the Midterm Roundup! Every morning we’ll be sating your hunger for the latest midterm election news, hot and fresh out the kitchen – from breaking polls to emerging trends to the occasional obscure curiosity. It can get confusing out there with so many races. Here’s to trying to make a little sense of it all. Bon appétit!

Earmarks: Get ‘Em While You Can
What would happen to your congressman in a stark future of congressional earmark reform? The SacBee ruminates on the future of earmarks, particularly those of Representative John Doolittle (R) from California’s 4^th district. Elsewhere in California, Representative Duncan Hunter (R) of the 52^nd district opens up about earmarks to WaPo. In regards to Montana’s Senator Conrad Burns (R), the Missoulian makes its case for why earmarks should go extinct. And from Saturday, Knight Ridder chronicles the earmark wizardry of Representative Ralph Regula (R) of Ohio’s 16^th district, a possible heir to the Appropriations Committee throne of Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA), should he fall. Earmark-hungry lobbyists are fearing the worst.

Read more »

In an update on the legal drama in Texas, after the Texas Democratic Party succeeded in having a temporary restraining order imposed on the Texas Republican Party, the matter has been moved out of state court and into federal court. The case will now be heard on June 26th. The federal judge, Sam Sparks, has declined to extend the restraining order through Monday.

Read more »

Just one week after winning the Democratic nomination and the nightmare that is Jim Webb’s campaign to unseat incumbent Senator George Allen (R) has already reached Poe-like proportions!

Read more »

A large number of Democrats have switched their party affiliation in Rhode Island, allowing them to vote in the September Republican primary. The Providence Journal has done an analysis of state election records, showing that more than 14,000 Dems have switched their affiliation in what could be an important development in the Senate race. Incumbent Lincoln Chaffee (R) has strong support from independents and Democrats, but is facing a difficult primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R).

Read more »

The Cincinnati Enquirer’s “Politics Extra” highlights a press release issued yesterday by Rep. Ted Strickland (D), in which the gubernatorial candidate criticizes State Senate Republicans for adjourning for summer recess without acting on legislation strengthening protections for Ohio gun owners.

Read more »

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) knows his constituents aren’t very happy with the war in Iraq, or with the president. When Bush held a fundraiser for him last month, his fellow Pennsylvania congressman Curt Weldon decided not to come, saying "there's nothing the president can do to help me." But Gerlach’s concerns about reelection weren’t enough to make him cross the aisle during this weekend’s vote on the war in Iraq. He voted for the GOP-backed resolution but pushed for more Congressional oversight of the war.

Read more »

Governor Frank Murkowski of Alaska, the second most unpopular governor in the union, is playing the humility card.

Murkowski’s campaign ran a full-page ad in yesterday’s Anchorage Daily News and Fairbanks Daily News-Miner that starts, “I agree. I admit it. I'm a long, long way from perfect.”  Further down, Murkowski states, “Maybe I need a personality transplant.”  An advisor to the governor’s campaign said the ad was meant to demonstrate that Murkowski is listening to voters.

Read more »

Last week the League of Conservation Voters added seven lawmakers to its 2006 “Dirty Dozen.” One would think that as a rule the politicians on this list would not celebrate such a distinction. Rep. Bob Ney (R), however, is the exception that proves the rule.

Read more »

When the Philadelphia Inquirer noticed that Rick Santorum’s Spanish-version website didn’t match his English one, his spokeswomen said that the Spanish version just hadn’t been updated yet. A week and a half later, the update is complete. Santorum points out that while he may have some trouble with translation, his opponent, Bob Casey Jr., hasn’t even tried—there’s no Spanish version of his site.

Read more »

Saturday marked the first step in Senator George Allen’s precarious balancing act, as the Senator traveled to Iowa to headline a state Republican event, an early maneuver in his bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

Read more »

At a New Jersey Association of Counties annual conference breakfast on Friday morning, New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez (D) was expecting to have a chance to debate challenger Thomas Kean Jr. (R) face to face. But Kean was nowhere to be found when Menendez assumed the podium, so the incumbent took the opportunity to blast his challenger in absentia.

Read more »

Up until last month, Montana Senator Conrad Burns (R) co-sponsored a bill in the Senate that would grant legal residency-- or amnesty, as he likes to call it,--to illegal immigrants even though he has also in the past campaigned against amnesty.

Burns’ position on the Agricultural Jobs (AgJobs) Act is in the news again after he began running ads trumpeting his opposition to amnesty and attacking his opponent, state Senate leader Jon Tester (D), for failing to take a position on the issue. (Tester has said that he is against amnesty).

Read more »

On June 2 Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), his wife, his daughter, a staffer, and a state trooper were aboard a private plane en route to the North Carolina Republican Party convention when the plane’s right engine failed, forcing it to make an emergency landing in Chattanooga, TN. A subsequent incident report lists the plane’s owner as Southeastern Asset Management, a New Hampshire-based company of which Ted Suhl is the manager. Suhl is a past contributor to Huckabee campaigns, a Huckabee-appointee to the state Child Welfare Agency Review Board, and also the director of the Lord’s Ranch in Warm Springs, a religious-based youth home whose $8.5 million contract with the state is paid through Medicaid.

Read more »

Democrats and Republicans held their nominating conventions this Saturday. A few GOP presidential hopefuls showed up for the event, including New York Gov. George Pataki, Virginia Sen. George Allen, and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. But the "best" line of the night came from incumbent Rep. Steve King (R-IA), on the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, “There probably are not 72 virgins in the hell he’s at,” King said. “And if there are, they probably all look like [White House correspondent] Helen Thomas.”

Read more »

In an interview with the Washington Post yesterday, Joe Lieberman waxed nostalgic about a 1960s Democratic state convention where the party chairman picked a random guy from backstage to run for Congress because he was Polish. He wonders whether the Democratic Party is on a “crusade or jihad” against him and other members who don’t “toe the line.” While campaigning with his son Matt, he also defended his much mocked bear ad, saying he thought it was “kind of cute."

A new Rasmussen poll shows that if Lieberman runs as a Democrat, he'll take 61% of the vote. If he runs as an independent, he'll still win, but with only 44% of the vote. In the primary, Lieberman is only six points ahead of Lamont.

Read more »

Republican congressional candidate for Arizona’s 8^th District and ex-golf pro Randy Graf (R) fired campaign manager Steve Aiken this weekend when Aiken’s 1996 “corruption of minors” conviction came to light. ABC News’ Brian Ross revealed the conviction on Friday afternoon. Graf told ABC News that he had discussed the matter with Aiken and been assured that "what he did was no more serious than providing a teenager with beer."

Read more »

In the race for Alaska governor, the construction of a natural gas pipeline from the state’s North Slope into the contiguous 48 states is shaping up to be the major campaign issue. Negotiations on the pipeline between the state’s three largest oil companies and the office of Governor Frank Murkowski concluded in May after three years. Shortly after the negotiations’ completion public hearings began around the state where experts and ordinary citizens could sound off on the proposed contract. Although Murkowski says the pipeline is crucial to Alaska's economic future, critics have been complaining about the closed-door nature of the talks.

Read more »

A Press-Register/University of South Alabama poll has Governor Bob Riley (R) leading Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley (D) 53% to 25%. Twenty-two percent of registered voters were undecided.

Read more »