Democrats can be pretty confident for now about picking up a new Senate seat in the Southwest this Fall, with a new SurveyUSA poll of the New Mexico Senate race showing Democratic Congressman Tom Udall beating both Republicans by very wide margins for this open GOP-held seat:

Udall (D) 60%, Pearce (R) 36%
Udall (D) 61%, Wilson (R) 35%

Sample size: 1,827 registered voters.
Margin of error: ±2.3%

In the Republican primary subset, the more conservative Congressman Steve Pearce leads Congresswoman Heather Wilson by a 49%-46% margin, within the ±4.8% margin of error. But with these general election figures, any arguments over electability may well be moot.

Barack Obama is sticking by his defense of same-sex unions, despite the likelihood that it will flare up as a general election issue because of today's California Supreme Court decision legalizing it. Here's the Obama camp's response to the court decision:

"Barack Obama has always believed that same-sex couples should enjoy equal rights under the law, and he will continue to fight for civil unions as President. He respects the decision of the California Supreme Court, and continues to believe that states should make their own decisions when it comes to the issue of marriage."

The Republicans are likely to seize on Obama's respect for the court's decision as proof that electing Obama would bring about gay marriage across the country. Of course, it's also worth noting that Obama stops short of embracing gay marriage, putting him out of step with many on the left.

No statement yet from Hillary Clinton. John McCain's spokesman, however, has weighed in with this:

"John McCain supports the right of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution sanctioning the union between a man and a woman, just as he did in his home state of Arizona. John McCain doesn't believe judges should be making these decisions."

Late Update: Here is the Clinton campaign's statement:

Hillary Clinton believes that gay and lesbian couples in committed relationships should have the same rights and responsibilities as all Americans and believes that civil unions are the best way to achieve this goal. As President, Hillary Clinton will work to ensure that same sex couples have access to these rights and responsibilities at the federal level. She has said and continues to believe that the issue of marriage should be left to the states.

Now this is really something. New polling shows that not one but two scandal-plagued incumbent Republicans are seriously in danger of losing their seats -- and to top it off, both are in a state that has historically been a GOP stronghold, Alaska.

The two GOPers in question are TPMmuckraker all-stars: Sen. Ted Stevens, who is at the center of a corruption investigation; and Rep. Don Young, whose potential involvement in the Coconut Road earmark has landed him in the hotseat. Both are trailing their Dem challengers.

From the new polls commissioned by Daily Kos, and conducted by the non-partisan firm Research 2000:

Senate
Begich (D) 48%
Stevens (R) 43%

House
Berkowitz (D) 50%
Young (R) 40%

Sample size: 600 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

Democrats have not won a federal race in Alaska since 1974, when Mike Gravel was elected to a second term in the Senate. But it's looking like this could be a big year indeed.

On a conference call with conservative bloggers this afternoon, John McCain launched what may be his most direct attack yet on Barack Obama's national security credentials, saying flat out that Obama is incapable of protecting America and lacks the necessary traits to keep it secure from foreign threats.

In a reference to Obama's declared willingness to meet with the leader of Iran, McCain said:

"I think [it] is an unacceptable position, and shows that Senator Obama does not have the knowledge, the experience, the background to make the kind of judgments that are necessary to preserve this nation's security."

That seems like an unequivocal declaration that Obama is incapable of protecting this country. In the past, McCain has raised doubts about Obama's national security cred, but to our knowledge has never taken the step of declaring outright that he's unfit to defend the country.

McCain's comments also go considerably farther than McCain did in his comments this morning about Bush's Israel speech attacking Dems. In those remarks, McCain said Obama needs to explain why he's willing to sit down with a "state sponsor of terrorism."

I was invited to join the blogger call by the McCain campaign as part of its effort to reach out to non-conservative bloggers. McCain is the only candidate right now to hold regular blogger conference calls.

On the call, McCain also signaled that he's eager to have a national security debate surrounding questions such as whether to negotiate with the leader of Iran. "I look forward to having that debate with him and take it to the American people," McCain said.

Full context of McCain's remarks after the jump.

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The Republican primary for the swing House seat in Oregon just keeps getting nastier -- a development that's cheering national Dems, because it improves the Democrats' chances of holding on to this key seat that could otherwise be at some risk of slipping into Republican hands.

Check out this vicious new attack ad that businessman Mike Erickson is airing -- it hits back at former state Rep. Kevin Mannix for spreading a two-year old e-mail that accused Erickson of impregnating a younger woman and paying for her abortion:

If things continue at this rate, the eventual Democratic nominee will be up against a badly bloodied GOP opponent, making it more likely that national Dems will hold the open seat.

Here's the spot that the pro-Hillary 527 American Leadership Project is airing in Oregon, starting today...

ALP will spend up to $500,000 on the buy, as I reported below.

The spot is an all-positive one touting her strength on the economy, a major departure for the group, which had aired a string of ads attacking Obama in other states.

The shift to a positive spot suggests that ALP's major backers -- unions and big Hillary donors -- may recognize that the contest is all but over, don't want to damage Obama in advance of his inevitable general election candidacy, and don't want to further alienate the party's all but certain nominee.

The American Leadership Project -- the big pro-Hillary 527 put together by major Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- is buying $300,000-$500,000 worth of TV time in Oregon for a new ad touting Hillary's record on the economy, I'm told.

Tellingly, the spot -- unlike past ALP-sponsored ads, which attacked Obama -- will be uniformly positive, with no mention at all of Obama or even any implicit contrast between his and Hillary's economic record. The ad will begin running today.

ALP's decision to go positive at this late date is significant. It suggests that ALP -- one of the top independent groups backing Hillary -- may recognize that the contest is all but decided and that there's no percentage in attacking Obama, something that could damage him in advance of the general election.

It also suggests that ALP's major labor and financial backers are now reluctant to alienate the party's all-but-certain nominee.

Contacted for comment, ALP spokesperson Jason Kinney confirmed the buy and its particulars.

We'll bring you the ad as soon as we have it.

Late Update: Watch the ad right here.

Larry Cohen, the president of the Communication Workers of America and a super-delegate from D.C., will endorse Obama today, CWA's communications office confirms to me.

A press release will go out sometime soon. CWA's umbrella union sat out the primary, and had left it up to individual locals to decide whom to endorse.

That brings Obama's count for the day to two. Seattle Rep. Jim McDermott threw his backing to the Illinois Senator today.

This is also Obama's second labor endorsement today, having picked up the backing of the steelworkers' union this morning -- suggesting that John Edwards' endorsement of Obama yesterday is hastening the coalescing of institutional support behind the Illinois Senator.

Late Update: The Obama camp has also just announced the support of Congressmen Henry Waxman and Howard Berman, both from California.

If this new attack ad from GOP Senator Gordon Smith is any indication, he may recognize that he's facing a tough reelection fight and that the Dems have a shot at picking up this plum Oregon Senate seat this fall.

What's particularly interesting about this attack ad is that Smith doesn't know who is opponent is yet.

Jeff Merkley, the state House speaker and the target of this ad, is still locked in a tough fight against attorney Steve Novick for next week's primary. So the attempt by Smith to drive up Merkley's negatives at this point could be a sign that he'd rather face Novick.

A few weeks ago, Media Matters' David Brock announced to great fanfare that he was taking over Progressive Media USA, a third-party group that would, he vowed, raise $40 million for ads to soften up John McCain in advance of the general election.

Now the group is quietly shuttering those efforts with barely a whimper.

Barack Obama's fundraising team has been quietly putting out word to major donors that they didn't want any money to go to such third-party groups. Instead, they wanted the cash to go to the Obama campaign, so Obama advisers could be in sole control of the campaign's message.

It worked. Brock has quietly leaked a statement to The Washington Post saying that his group is, for all practical purposes, defunct.

"Progressive Media will not be running an independent ad campaign this year," Brock's statement to WaPo said, adding that "donors and potential donors are getting clear signals from the Obama camp through the news media and we recognize that reality."

One interesting footnote: With the likelihood of Obama donors helping them pretty much non-existent, Brock and company reportedly realized that Clinton donors, too, would be unlikely to help fund an effort to get Obama elected.

Two things about this. First, the speed with which Obama closed this thing down is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the party in advance of his all-but-certain nomination. And second, it looks as if this election is going to be impacted far less than anyone expected by groups like this, at least on the Dem side.

Here's another effect of the John Edwards endorsement that has passed unnoticed.

If Obama gets the support of the vast majority of Edwards' delegates, which is likely, that will mean that Obama could potentially secure a majority of pledged delegates on May 20 -- even if Florida and Michigan are fully seated.

Assuming that Obama is awarded all of the uncommitted slots from Michigan and also wins the support of all the Edwards delegates from Florida, that gives Hillary a total gain of 178 delegates from these two states to 135 for Obama, plus all 18 remaining Edwards delegates from other states switching to Obama.

As such, Obama would have 1,752 total pledged dels to Clinton's 1,625 for Clinton, and only need 32 more delegates to get the new pledged-del majority number of 1,784. A strong win in Oregon and a decent showing in Kentucky would be all that's necessary to pull that off.

WaPo's Garance Franke-Ruta has a nice get: It appears that the ferment continues in the pro-choice movement over NARAL's surprise endorsement of Obama yesterday...

NARAL Pro-Choice America affiliates in key swing and primary states are openly distancing themselves from the decision by NARAL Pro-Choice America to endorse Illinois Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the Democratic nominee for president.

Since yesterday's announcement, NARAL groups in Pennsylvania, Missouri, Oregon, Washington, Texas and New York -- Clinton's home state -- have issued statements signaling their continued neutrality in the Democratic race and emphasizing that the national group did not speak for them on this matter. These groups represent nearly a quarter of NARAL's state chapters.

NARAL's Missouri chapter was so adamant about remaining neutral that it pumped a robocall yesterday into 8,500 homes stressing that many in its membership are strong supporters of Hillary.

Obviously the NARAL endorsement was a huge get for Obama, but you can't avoid the fact that this was a really mystifying decision for NARAL to make. All it did was alienate huge swaths of its membership and fundraising base, and it's hard to see how the endorsement did anything to accomplish the group's stated goal of uniting African Americans and female activists.

Offering yet another reminder of why his approval rating hovers in the 20s, President Bush yet again hauled out a political tactic that has been failing for the GOP for literally years now, likening the willingness of "some" -- apparently meaning Obama and other Dems -- to negotiate with hostile foreign powers to "appeasement."

Intriguingly, Bush called this willingness to negotiate -- which is supported by majorities of the American people -- something that had been "discredited by history," a claim that requires one to completely forget that the last seven years ever happened.

"It is sad that President Bush would use a speech to the Knesset on the 6Oth anniversary of Israel's independence to launch a false political attack," retorted Obama, via spokesperson Bill Burton. "It is time to turn the page on eight years of policies that have strengthened Iran and failed to secure America or our ally Israel."

Bush made the remarks today while in Israel. The exchange provides an early glimpse of the argument that Obama and McCain are likely to have over foreign policy in the run-up to the general election.

Obama's full response after the jump.

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In a sign that John McCain recognizes the political pitfalls of his plan to stay in Iraq for practically forever, his speech this morning laying out his vision for his first term contains an interesting prediction: That by 2013, Iraq shall have essentially been won.

In his speech today in the big swing state of Ohio, McCain will make the following prediction for 2013: "The Iraq war has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension. Violence still occurs, but it is spasmodic and much reduced."

Late Update: The full prepared text of the speech is available after the jump.

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In a first indication of that John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama has carried some weight, an Edwards pledged delegate from New Hampshire has now announced his support for Obama, as well.

Edwards' pledged delegates are not required by the rules to follow his support for Obama, though as former activists for their candidate they would no doubt be influenced by his recommendation. Edwards has another 18 delegates up for grabs -- and if they mostly end up going for Obama, it would be enough to wipe out Hillary Clinton's gains from West Virginia.

In his endorsement speech, Edwards boiled it down:

"The reason I am here tonight is that the Democratic voters in America have made their choice, and so have I."

Edwards rattled through some of his familiar, if now distant, exhortations about "one America." In a rousing summation, he talked about the struggles of the poor, the difficulties of those coping without health insurance, and veterans who were returning home only to face neglect.

"No more in our America," Edwards concluded, "when Barack Obama is President of the United States of America!"

But most significantly, Edwards effectively said, "The Democrats have made their choice. The primary is over," precisely at a moment when the Hillary campaign is making the opposite case. You really couldn't imagine a moment more perfectly scripted for the Obama campaign, coming right after Obama's lopsided loss in West Virginia, than this.